All the media wants to do is talk about the big, bad, blue-blood programs.
Who’s going to make the college football? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Athens, Ohio, and Murfreesboro, Tennessee.
While our fields may be blue, grey, or teal, the money that can be won on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As The Action Network’s resident Group of 5 Guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often-overlooked teams and matchups, while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
Here are three games I have circled for Week 1. Let's dive into my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, Aug. 29.
Old Dominion vs Indiana Pick
Indiana had a miraculous 2024 season, posting an 11-2 record in the first year under head coach Curt Cignetti.
But the Hoosiers lost a ton of production from last year’s stacked roster. They did a good job filling those holes in the transfer portal (especially on offense), but I especially worried about the defensive front (which returns only Mikail Kamara).
Creating Havoc was the strength of the Hoosiers’ defense last season, and if they take a step back in that department this year, it will really open up the door for Old Dominion star quarterback Colton Joseph.
Joseph took over as the full-time starter in Week 6 of last season, and he took the offense to another level. Across eight starts, the redshirt freshman threw for 1,627 yards with 11 touchdowns while adding 647 yards and 11 touchdowns on the ground. He ranked fifth among Sun Belt players in total offense, and he could improve this season with more experience under his belt.
On the other side of the ball, Old Dominion has arguably the best linebacker corps in the Group of Five. All-American linebacker Jason Henderson returns after a season-ending injury in Week 1 last season, and he is joined by fellow returnees Mario Thompson, Jahleel Culbreath, and Koa Naotala to form a stout group that should slow down this Indiana rushing attack.
The team was excellent at not wasting possessions last season. They had the best red-zone offense in the country, consistently capitalizing on scoring opportunities. That will be key when trying to stay within a considerable number against a Big Ten opponent.
Head coach Ricky Rahne’s teams have shown they are not afraid of the moment in early-season games.
In 2022, the Monarchs upset Virginia Tech in the season opener and lost by two at Virginia on a game-winning field goal.
In 2023, they lost by three to Wake Forest after leading in the fourth quarter.
Last season, Old Dominion largely outplayed South Carolina in Columbia, but four turnovers gave the Gamecocks easy touchdowns to escape with just a four-point win.
Indiana ran up the score against all its non-conference opponents last year, but I still think the Hoosiers are getting too much love in this spot. The Hoosiers are patching a lot of holes, while the Monarchs have stars on both sides of the ball that consistently stepped up against higher-level competition.
Pick: Old Dominion +24.5 (-118, DraftKings)
UTEP vs Utah State Pick
I understand that seeing the words “Five-Star Quarterback” is sexy and exciting for a Group of 5 school. But I’m here to pump the brakes and throw a little cold water on Miner Nation.
At some point, we need to acknowledge that Malachi Nelson is not very good.
After starting his career as a high-touted recruit at USC, Nelson was unable to sniff the field, attempting just three passes before the Trojans let him walk.
Once he entered the transfer portal, he had zero Power 4 interest before landing at Boise State, where he lost a quarterback battle to three-star Maddux Madsen.
He transferred again. Again, he received very little interest before settling on UTEP. Even then, he was in a close quarterback competition into fall camp with Skyler Locklear, who managed a 10-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio last year.
These are all major red flags.
The Miners return their top two receivers in Kenny Odom and Kam Thomas, but the running back room will be completely new, as will most of the offensive line.
The defense returns just three starters and severely lacks star power and impact players. The biggest issue on defense is the severe lack of depth across the board.
After a 4-8 record last year under an interim coach, Utah State made a splash move to hire Utah-native Bronco Mendenhall away from New Mexico.
The former BYU and Virginia head coach posted a 5-7 record in his one season in Albuquerque, but should have a better roster in Logan.
Quarterback Bryson Barnes is back after starting three games last year as the backup for Spencer Petras. He threw for 12 touchdowns and six interceptions, finishing the year with eight touchdowns across his final three games. He also added 378 rushing yards in his final two starts, giving Mendenhall a solid dual-threat option.
The rest of the offense will mostly be rebuilt, as only two starters return from last season.
The wide receiver room features some interesting pieces acquired from the transfer portal, but the running back group remains largely unproven. Javen Jacobs came with Mendenhall from New Mexico after finishing third on the team in rushing last year.
Only three starters return from last year's defense, but that unit was horrific, so the turnover is likely a positive.
Defensive coordinator Nick Howell has been with Mendenhall at all three of his previous stops, and they have worked well together. However, the New Mexico defense was just as bad as Utah State's last year, so that side of the ball remains a mystery.
Barnes looked solid in the limited action he saw last year. Utah State went 3-3 in games in which he attempted more than one pass, but two of those losses were to USC and Utah.
Don’t get enamored with the recruiting rankings because, based on what we have seen on the field, Utah State has the better quarterback in this matchup.
I also trust Mendenhall more than UTEP head coach Scotty Walden. Mendenhall has posted a 140-88 record in his head coaching career, and I expect him to turn around this Utah State program quickly.
I’d lay anything under a touchdown with the Aggies.
Pick: Utah State -5.5 (-122, FanDuel)
New Mexico vs Michigan Pick
As a loyal G5 defender and Penn State alum, this pains me to write.
Michigan throttles New Mexico on Saturday.
The Wolverines reportedly spent $12 million to sign five-star quarterback Bryce Underwood and named the true freshman the starting quarterback from day one. They will surely be excited to show off their fancy new toy. They want to give the 18-year-old plenty of game reps and gain experience rather than pulling him at halftime with a big lead.
We know he won’t be asked to do it all, as Michigan always has an elite run game. Jordan Marshall and Alabama transfer Justice Haynes should shred a New Mexico defense that ranked 133rd nationally in Success Rate allowed last year.
Michigan is replacing several talented players on defense, but it’s still Michigan.
Its top two tacklers from last year are back, linebackers Ernest Hausmann and Jaishawn Barham. The secondary is loaded, with cornerbacks Zeke Berry and Jyaire Hill shutting things down on the outside.
New Mexico must replace its head coach, star quarterback Devon Dampier, alongside the entire roster and coaching staff. Just four total starters return from last year’s roster.
New head coach Jason Eck was hired from Idaho after leading the team to three straight FCS playoff appearances, and the coaching changes resulted in massive turnover in the transfer portal.
While many Group of 5 teams opt for the unproven but talented Power 4 drop-downs, New Mexico chose to recruit several players from the FCS levels. Scottre Humphrey rushed for over 1,300 yards and 16 touchdowns at Montana State last season, and quarterback Jack Layne followed Eck from Idaho.
While I like that strategy, it is a massive step up in class to go from playing at Idaho one game to taking in Michigan in The Big House in the next.
New Mexico will struggle to do anything on either side of the ball in this game. It comes down to Michigan naming its number.
With a true freshman making his first career start, I expect Big Blue to get Underwood as many reps as possible. He needs to be prepared with high confidence to play Oklahoma next week.
Head coach Sherrone Morre is also facing a suspension in the third and fourth games of the season (because Michigan is a bunch of corrupt cheaters). That means Moore essentially has one game to work out the kinks before a road trip to Norman next week and right into conference play when he returns to the sidelines.
The Wolverines should run away with this one on Saturday night.
Pick: Michigan -34.5 (-110, bet365)
