All the media wants to talk about is the big, bad, blue-blood programs.
Who’s going to make the college football? What’s going on with conference realignment? You can find top-25 showdown analysis and breakdowns everywhere.
However, we die-hard college football fans know that the best football is played in places like Huntington, West Virginia, and Bowling Green, Tennessee.
While our fields may be blue, grey, or teal, the money you can win on these games is still green. Just because the games might be subjected to a laptop or secondary screen doesn’t mean you shouldn’t bet on them.
As The Action Network’s resident Group of 5 Guru, my goal is to shine a light on these often-overlooked teams and matchups, while also providing my best bets for the Group of 5 level each week.
I will comb through the American, CUSA, MAC, Mountain West, and Sun Belt to find the best value for each and every Saturday slate.
Here are two games I have circled for Week 12. Let's dive into my NCAAF picks and college football predictions for the Group of Five on Saturday, Nov. 15.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | Marshall -7.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Western Kentucky -13.5 |
Marshall -7.5 at Georgia State
3 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
This season has been another disaster for Georgia State.
The Panthers are just 4-17 in the past two seasons, and 1-8 this year.
The lone win came against FCS Murray State. Not only have they not beaten an FBS team, but they’re also 1-8 ATS.
Georgia State has rotated quarterbacks Cameran Brown and veteran TJ Finley, and the offense has been subpar with both. Brown is the better passer and also adds an element with his rushing ability. The Panthers rank 127th nationally in Success Rate, and the only way they move the ball is with an occasional big play.
You would think that with head coach Dell McGee’s background as a running backs coach, that would be the one area this team has success in, but they have been the worst rushing offense in the Sun Belt.
They’re also facing a Marshall team that has been pretty good against the run.
The Thundering Herd have been much better offensively since switching to Carlos Del Rio-Wilson at quarterback. He is accurate with the football, completing 66% of his passes on the year with 14 touchdowns to just three interceptions. He is also the team’s leading rusher.
The Herd have been running the ball really well in conference play, averaging over 236.2 rushing yards per game against Sun Belt opponents.
Marshall should be able to run all over this Georgia State defense, while Del Rio-Wilson sees little resistance when he looks to throw.
Marshall’s defense has not been good this season, but the Panthers just don’t have the weapons on offense to keep up.
Pick: Marshall -7.5
Western Kentucky -13.5 vs. Middle Tennessee
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
I expected Middle Tennessee to take a jump in its second year under Derek Mason, but that hasn’t been the case.
The Blue Raiders are 1-8, only escaping with a one-point victory against Nevada back in early September.
Western Kentucky is 7-2 and has a good chance of returning to the Conference USA title game.
Quarterback Maverick McIvor has missed the last two games with an injury but is expected to be available. Even if freshman Rodney Tisdale gets the start, he threw for over 300 yards with four touchdown passes in his last start against New Mexico State.
Whoever is behind center has a loaded wide receiver room to work with.
Matthew Henry, K.D. Hutchinson and Moussa Barry should have no problem getting behind this Middle Tennessee defense that ranks 132nd nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed.
The Hilltoppers throw the ball at a top-10 rate, and the Blue Raiders have been horrendous at defending the pass. They have allowed 24 passing touchdowns this season. Only UMass has allowed more, and they’ve played an extra game.
Middle Tennessee also throws the ball at a top-10 rate. The Blue Raiders cannot run the ball at all.
This is one of the best Hilltopper defenses we have seen in recent years. They rank 28th nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed and have a top 40 PFF Coverage grade.
Safety Jaylen Lewis has been tremendous on the backend of this defense. Opposing quarterbacks have just a 19.2 Passer Rating against him.
These are two teams that want to throw the ball all over the yard. They each sit in the top 10 in passing attempts per game.
One defense has been terrific against the pass, allowing just six passing scores all season. The other has been a disaster, ranking among the worst pass defenses in the country.
Pick: Western Kentucky -13.5
