While a lot of eyes may be focused on an SEC battle between No. 16 Vanderbilt and No. 10 Alabama, No. 9 Texas hits the road, among other key college football afternoon games. In fact, I have NCAAF predictions and two college football afternoon picks for Week 6.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 6, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 18-14-2 (56.25%)
- Overall: 187-137-3 (57.7%)
2 NCAAF Predictions for Week 6 Afternoon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 3 p.m. | Arizona -19.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Florida +7 |
Arizona -19.5 vs. Oklahoma State
3 p.m. ET ⋅ TNT
Oklahoma State is an absolute mess. Its opponent-adjusted metrics on both sides of the ball almost look like a mistake. This is the worst power conference team by a magnificent margin.
How bad is it from a power ratings perspective? As of right now, I'd have lowly Western Michigan favored on a neutral field over the Pokes, who recently got dominated on their home field by Tulsa.
There's nothing to like about this team. The quarterback play is putrid behind an offensive line missing its best player, and the defense can't stop a nosebleed.
So, is this the bottom? Maybe not.
After firing head coach Mike Gundy last week, Oklahoma State fired defensive coordinator Todd Grantham on Sunday.
So, who will take over as the interim in his place? Clint Bowen, whom Gundy brought in as an offensive quality control coach in the offseason after Bowen spent the past four years at the high school level.
I also wouldn't be surprised to see a few more players enter the portal.
Oklahoma State has no direction on defense, while the offense operates with tempo with no discernible strengths. That's a recipe for a complete blowout in the desert against what should be an angry Arizona bunch coming off a blowout loss in Ames.
The Wildcats got burned by allowing too many explosive passing plays against the Cyclones, who also exploited them over the middle of the field.
Well, that shouldn't be much of an issue against quarterback Zane Flores, who really struggles to throw between the hashes and has completed just three of his 21 (14.3%) deep balls this season.
Meanwhile, Arizona should find success doing whatever it chooses while on offense.
Last week, the wide receivers struggled to get separation against the Iowa State secondary. That won't be an issue this week. And the ground game should really get going on early downs, making life much easier for quarterback Noah Fifita.
Arizona's special teams are a bit of a mess at the moment, but that shouldn't matter in this one. Give me the Wildcats to bounce back in a big way by at least three touchdowns against the corpse of Oklahoma State.
Notable Nugget
Oklahoma State has gone 3-11 ATS (21.4%) against FBS opponents over the past two seasons, failing to cover by a whopping 11 points per game on average. The Pokes have been the least profitable team in the country over that span.
Pick: Arizona -19.5 (Play to -20)
Florida +7 vs. Texas
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN
This is a super difficult game to handicap, but I couldn't pass up taking the touchdown in what profiles as a lower-scoring game with two stout defenses facing arguably the two most disappointing offenses so far in 2025.
Also, keep in mind that Florida has played the second-most difficult schedule in the country to date, while Texas' strength of schedule ranks outside the top 140.
I just haven't seen enough from Arch Manning (who went 11-of-25 for 114 yards at home against UTEP) to trust this Texas offense on the road against a dominant Florida defense that should contain the Texas ground game.
Is it possible one or both of these quarterbacks haven't been 100% healthy? Certainly. So, who knows which could come out of the bye week looking better?
However, we've at least seen high-level production against SEC competition in the past from DJ Lagway, who we do know had an injury in the offseason, which prevented him from getting to work with his receivers leading up to the season.
As a result, I believe there's a higher probability that Lagway benefits more from the two weeks leading up to this showdown in the Swamp.
Additionally, it looks as if five-star freshman wide receiver Dallas Wilson will make his season debut for the Gators. He could really help unlock the deep passing attack, which has completely disappeared in 2025 after being an overwhelming strength for Lagway in 2024.
In the spring game, against what we now see is a high-caliber defense, Wilson hauled in 10 catches for 195 yards and two touchdowns. He's the real deal and could help this unit, which now possesses the healthiest group of wide receivers since the spring.
It wouldn't shock me if either one of these offenses just can't do anything on Saturday, but I don't expect this Florida team to quit on Napier, especially in this spot at home against a top-10 opponent.
The defense alone can keep it in this game, and there's now some optimism for offensive upside.
At home in the Swamp in what might be the last hurrah for the 2025 Gators, I had to take the touchdown in a game with a total of 41, where Florida should also hold the special teams edge.
Notable Nugget
Billy Napier is 26-14 ATS (65%) as an underdog, covering by five points per game, including 8-4 when catching at least a touchdown against SEC competition.
Pick: Florida +7 or Better
Note: I do need +7 here with all of the uncertainty.
