The North Texas Mean Green take on the Tulane Green Wave in New Orleans, Louisiana. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ABC.
North Texas is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -135. The total is set at 66.5 points.
Here’s my North Texas vs. Tulane prediction and college football picks for Saturday, December 5.
North Texas vs Tulane Prediction
- North Texas vs. Tulane Pick: North Texas -3 or better
My Tulane vs. North Texas best bet is on North Texas to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
North Texas vs Tulane Odds
| North Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | -135 |
| Tulane Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 66.5 -110o / -110u | +115 |
- North Texas vs Tulane point spread: North Texas -2.5 (-110), Tulane +2.5 (-110)
- North Texas vs Tulane over/under: 66.5 (-110o / -110u)
- North Texas vs Tulane moneyline: North Texas -135, Tulane +115
North Texas vs Tulane Preview
North Texas Mean Green Betting Preview: Can They Ride Quarterback Play to CFP?
In the latest College Football Playoff Rankings reveal, Tulane came in at No. 20, and North Texas was ranked No. 24.
With both ranked ahead of James Madison, it confirms that the winner of the American Championship game will represent the Group of 5 in the College Football Playoff.
North Texas turned a 6-7 season into an 11-1 campaign in the third year under Eric Morris. The Mean Green earned themselves a trip to the conference championship game and earned Morris the head coaching gig at Oklahoma State next season.
The only loss to the Mean Green this season came against South Florida, as they closed the year with six-straight wins.
The Mean Green finished the regular season with the nation's best offense, averaging 511.8 yards and 46.8 points per game.
Quarterback Drew Mestemaker had an outstanding season, leading the country with 3,835 yards while completing 70.9% of his passes. He tossed 29 touchdowns with just four interceptions.
Mestemaker has a deep room of targets with five players averaging over 30 receiving yards per game. However, Wyatt Young is clearly the alpha, averaging 100.3 receiving yards per game with 10 touchdown catches.
What makes North Texas so incredibly difficult to stop is how well-balanced it is.
Mestemaker can light up a defense through the air, but running back Caleb Hawkins has rushed for 1,200 yards and leads the country with 23 rushing touchdowns this season.
The Mean Green do everything well and will exploit whatever weakness their opponents’ defense has.
Defensively, the Mean Green are far from elite, but they have improved significantly from last year. Bringing in Skyler Cassity as defensive coordinator has worked wonders, improving this unit from 128th nationally in total defense last year to 65th this season.
The passing defense has been very solid for North Texas, ranking in the top 30 nationally in Pass Success Rate allowed.
Cornerbacks David Fisher and Da’Veawn Armstead are both great in coverage and have the Mean Green in the top 20 in interceptions. North Texas has not allowed a 300-yard passer all season and has only allowed 200 passing yards four times.
Stopping the run has been a different story. Because North Texas has not.
It ranks 114th in Rush Success Rate allowed, allowing 207.9 rushing yards per game, the worst in the American. Only seven teams in the country have allowed more rushing yards this season than North Texas.
Tulane Green Wave Betting Preview: Sumrall Swan Song
Tulane is right back in the American Conference Championship game for the second time in two years under Jon Sumrall.
That success has earned Sumrall the Florida coaching job, but he will finish out the season with the Green Wave.
After getting blown out in the conference championship game last year, Tulane has been looking forward to getting that taste of its mouth all season, punching its ticket to the College Football Playoff in the process.
Quarterback Darian Mensah left for Duke in the offseason, but Tulane was able to land Jake Retzlaff from BYU to prevent any drop-off in quarterback play. Retzlaff is only a middle-of-the-road passer talent-wise, but he makes enough plays when he needs to.
He has a talented receiving group led by Shazz Preston, which supports an efficient passing attack. While not all that explosive, the team ranks 16th nationally in Pass Success Rate.
What makes Retzlaff most effective is his ability to use his legs. He is Tulane’s leading rusher on the season, averaging 46.8 yards per game, and has scored 14 of the team's 23 total rushing touchdowns. Retzlaff’s legs are far and away the most dangerous part of the team's offensive attack.
The Tulane offense has been so effective this season because the Wave are well-balanced and has a tremendous offensive line. Led by All-Conference guard Shadre Hurst, the Green Wave allowed just 10 sacks all season, seventh nationally. They keep teams out of the backfield and prevent Havoc, allowing this offense plenty of time to create plays.
Tulane’s defense has had a few slip-ups along the way, but has overall fared well, especially in conference play.
The problem is, good offenses have been able to find success, while they have completely shut down mediocre offenses. They allow teams to move the ball a little too easily, ranking just 96th nationally in Success Rate allowed, although they do a good job at limiting explosive plays.
The run defense has been very good down the stretch, not allowing 100 rushing yards in any of the last four games.
But the pass defense has been tormented by anybody who can throw the ball. Tulane has allowed five teams to throw for over 300 yards, including in both its losses.
On this side of the ball, the strength is also up front.
Tulane does a good job getting after the quarterback, led by star defensive tackle Santana Hopper, along with Harvey Dyson and Jordan Norman on the outside. The Wave will need to apply pressure on Mestemaker to slow down this North Texas offense.
North Texas vs Tulane Pick, Betting Analysis
Both teams have flashed brilliance. Either team is capable of winning this game if they bring their A-game.
Both teams are well-coached, and neither seems distracted despite the incoming coaching changes. I trust both teams to be ready to play and block out the outside noise, allowing us to handicap this game exclusively between the lines.
These teams are similar in that they have very efficient offenses, and while their defenses leave a lot to be desired, they can make enough plays when needed and force a lot of turnovers.
So, who has the advantage? On offense, it is clearly North Texas.
The Mean Green rank in the top 10 nationally in both Pass Success Rate and Rush Success Rate. The offense is efficient and explosive while also ranking third nationally in Finishing Drives.
Mestemaker is having an outstanding season and has been one of the best quarterbacks in the entire country, but Hawkins can certainly take over a game by himself as well.
It is impossible to key on one area of this team to try and slow them down. North Texas has scored at least 31 points in every single game this season, leading the nation in scoring.
Tulane’s defense ranks 96th nationally in Success Rate allowed. The Wave have really struggled against the pass, and it’s hard to see them keeping the Mean Green much below their normal pace.
While North Texas’s defense is nothing to write home about, its biggest weakness is stopping the run.
Tulane has not exactly been an elite rushing team this season. The Green Wave rank 71st in Rush Success Rate and don’t have a single running back averaging over 40 yards per game. Their running backs have combined for just eight rushing touchdowns all season.
For North Texas, their pass defense has at least been very good. The Mean Green are terrific in coverage and have very good tacklers in the secondary.
Retzlaff is not a downfield threat through the air and will have to move the ball down the field underneath.
For the Mean Green, they know the key to this game is stopping Retzlaff’s legs. That is the most effective part of the Tulane offense.
I don’t expect them to shut down Ratzlaff’s rushing, and he should be able to move the ball with his legs here.
Still, if the Mean Green can limit everything else this offense tries to do successfully, Tulane won’t be able to keep up with this North Texas offensive attack.
North Texas is too dynamic and balanced on offense. Look for the Mean Green to make Tulane one-dimensional enough where they can pull away.
Pick: North Texas -3 or better
