The Ohio Bobcats take on the Western Michigan Broncos in Kalamazoo, Michigan, on Tuesday, Nov. 11. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Ohio is favored by 1 point on the spread with a moneyline of -115. Western Michigan, meanwhile, enters as a +1 underdog and is -105 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 47 total points.
Here’s my Ohio vs. Western Michigan predictions and college football picks for Tuesday, November 11.
Ohio vs Western Michigan Prediction
- Ohio vs. Western Michigan Pick: Western Michigan +1.5
My Western Michigan vs. Ohio best bet is on the Broncos to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio vs Western Michigan Odds
| Ohio Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -115 |
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -110 | 47 -110o / -110u | -105 |
- Ohio vs Western Michigan Spread: Ohio -1, Western Michigan +1
- Ohio vs Western Michigan Over/Under: 47 Points
- Ohio vs Western Michigan Moneyline: Ohio -115, Western Michigan -105
Ohio vs Western Michigan College Football Betting Preview
Ohio Bobcats Betting Preview: Offense Can Be Exploited
When you dig into this matchup, Western Michigan +1.5 stands out as the clear side with both the metrics and the situation working in its favor. It's also a decent spot to fade Ohio, considering that it had no business winning last week at Miami (OH).
Ohio’s offense has been steady all season, ranking 51st nationally in EPA Per Pass at +0.10 and 58th in EPA Per Rush. Those numbers suggest efficiency but not explosiveness.
The Bobcats rely on consistency rather than chunk plays, but that profile runs into a real problem here.
Western Michigan’s defense has quietly become one of the most disciplined units in the MAC. The Broncos rank 15th nationally in EPA Per Pass allowed and 35th in EPA Per Rush allowed, forcing opponents to grind for every yard.
That matchup leans heavily in favor of WMU, especially given that Ohio’s offense has struggled when facing defenses inside the top 30 in available yards gained. The Broncos rank 23rd there, holding opponents to just 38.4% of available yards gained.
That's precisely what we want to see in the underlying metrics when deciding to back a poor offensive team at home. The handicap here is focusing on the Broncos' strengths, especially since they can exploit the Bobcats offense.
Western Michigan Broncos Betting Preview: Weather Favors the Defense
The weather adds another layer that heavily favors Western Michigan. Forecasts in Kalamazoo call for temperatures hovering around 30 degrees with a real chance of snow showers and swirling wind.
Those aren’t ideal conditions for an Ohio team that’s built on efficiency through the short-to-intermediate passing game. Instead, it plays right into the teeth of the WMU defense.
Ohio’s run game will likely shoulder more of the load. But against a Broncos front that sits 35th nationally in EPA Per Rush allowed, that’s not an inviting matchup.
Meanwhile, the Bobcats defense has quietly started to crack on the ground. They rank 109th in EPA Per Rush allowed, which is a red flag against a Western Michigan offense that’s been steadily improving behind a line that’s building traction as the season progresses.
With a home-field advantage and a backfield that’s getting healthier, WMU has the tools to lean on Ohio’s weakness and keep drives alive.
The Broncos don't need to be sensational offensively to get the job done. I genuinely think their run game is stable enough to break through here.
Also, the Broncos rank 12th nationally in third- and fourth-down defense, holding opponents to 36.7%, which pairs perfectly with a cold-weather script that shortens the game.
Western Michigan also has a special-teams edge that could tilt the field-position battle as conditions worsen. If this turns into a grind-it-out contest — and all indicators point that way — Western Michigan’s defense and ground game give it more margin for error.
It's also worth noting that Ohio is dealing with multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball, which will provide the Broncos offense a boost.
Ohio vs Western Michigan Pick, Betting Analysis
Everything about this spot screams value on the home side, and I'm definitely looking to fade the Bobs after their lucky win last week.
With the weather, metrics, injury concerns and the matchup profile, Western Michigan is being undervalued by the market.
The Broncos are trending upward, have a top-20 defense in third-down Success Rate and thrive in these November MACtion grindfests.
On a slick field in frigid air, those short-yardage situations can ultimately determine the outcome, and that’s where the Broncos have the edge.
Pick: Western Michigan +1.5
Ohio vs Western Michigan Betting Trends
