The Ohio State Buckeyes take on the Purdue Boilermakers in West Lafayette, Indiana. Kickoff is set for 1:00 p.m. EST on BTN.
Ohio State is favored by 29.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -10000. The total is set at 48 points.
Here’s my Ohio State vs. Purdue prediction and college football picks for Saturday, November 8, 2025.
Ohio State vs Purdue Prediction
- Ohio State vs. Purdue Pick: Ohio State 1H TT Over 20.5
My Purdue vs. Ohio State best bet is on the Buckeyes to outscore their first-half posted total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Ohio State vs Purdue Odds
| Ohio State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-29.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | -10000 |
| Purdue Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+29.5 -110 | 48 -110o / -110u | +1800 |
- Ohio State vs Purdue point spread: Ohio State -29.5 (-110), Purdue +29.5 (-100)
- Ohio State vs Purdue over/under: 48 (-110o / -110u)
- Ohio State vs Purdue moneyline: Ohio State -10000, Purdue +1800
Ohio State vs Purdue Preview
Ohio State Buckeyes Betting Preview
What good is a 38-14 data point against a losing team at home?
Turns out, a decent one that pointed out a few Ohio State issues that needed attention.
First, the offensive line. Talented and stout though they are, players were whiffing against Penn State's defensive linemen, leading to some negative plays and nearly a turnover around the goal line. It wasn't masking scheme or stunts; it was full-on misses at the point of attack.
Secondly, it appears the Buckeye defense is at least semi-vulnerable at the edges. Running backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton found success amid a run of being almost completely ineffective last week. That effectiveness came on toss sweeps and unbalanced outside runs that exposed an aggressive second level to the Ohio State defense, previously unexploited.
That led to some first-half drama before Penn State was shut out in the second half. While teams have now scored inside the 10-yard line and in the first half, no team has scored a touchdown in both halves against Ohio State.
Julian Sayin dazzled and let his array of first-round receivers shine behind 316 passing yards and four touchdowns (on 20-of-23 passing). That performance shot him up the Heisman Trophy odds boards, making him the man to beat.
Carnell Tate posted his second consecutive 100-yard receiving game, which puts him at four on the season, and reeled in his seventh touchdown of the year. Jeremiah Smith did general Jeremiah Smith things and found the end zone twice.
The run game, while not elite, is beginning to show some explosive pop behind Bo Jackson. Faith in CJ Donaldson held strong as Day gave him goal-line opportunities despite a fumble at the end of the first half.
The narrative is also beginning to shift focus away from Caleb Downs — who won't have to sit this first half due to a waived-off targeting penalty that drew mixed responses — and toward Lombardi Award semifinalists Caden Curry, Arvell Reese, and Sonny Styles.
This is an NFL-style defense packed with NFL-caliber talent.
Purdue Boilermakers Betting Preview
The exasperating collapses of Power teams like Oklahoma State have been so bad that they've covered up the abomination of a season Purdue turned in.
At 2-7, the Boilermakers have zero Power Conference wins.
But that doesn't mean Purdue is mailing it in. Barry Odom has kept the fight very much alive in West Lafayette as three of Purdue's last four games have finished within a score. Some of those outcomes came at Michigan and Minnesota, with the defense picking up the pace a bit of late.
As expected, many of Purdue's problems stem from an overall lack of threatening players across multiple positions. Edge CJ Nunnally is a nice player, but he was rendered ineffective against better competition, such as Michigan and Illinois. Linebacker Mani Powell leads the Big Ten with 47 run stops, but in concert with the other players around him, Powell doesn't move the point spread.
The secondary isn't very good, and the pass rush doesn't make up for those shortcomings. Purdue ranks 115th nationally in EPA per Pass allowed, an angle plenty of opposing teams have taken against the Boilermakers; opponents have attempted the 11th-most passes per game against Purdue.
Perhaps Purdue uses two high safeties to remove the downfield threat of Tate and Smith. Safety Tahj Ra-El is Purdue's second-lowest graded defensive back and has been flagged five times, and is more of a run stopper than a center fielder. Myles Slusher mans the other safety position and is another multi-time transfer who doubles as a box and free safety. Neither player is replacement-level at the Power Conference level.
Quarterback will likely be a focus this offseason for Odom. Ryan Browne has been credited with the second-most turnover-worthy throws in the Big Ten, per PFF, and has seven interceptions to show for it.
Back Devin Mockobee sat out last week with an injury and is questionable heading into this game. He's the lone spark of explosion on this offense.
Seven straight losses may continue to compound as the Boilermakers' remaining schedule includes No. 1 Ohio State (home), No. 24 Washington (away), and No. 2 Indiana (home).
Ohio State vs Purdue Pick, Betting Analysis
Even spotting Ohio State more than four touchdowns on the road wasn't enough for those early to the window.
The Buckeyes were bet up from -28.5 to -29.5 (even touching -30 in some spots) while the posted total was bet down a few points from its 49.5 opening position.
There's a simple angle taken here: Purdue – nor anybody for that matter, but especially Purdue – doesn't have the guys in the secondary to cover the guys Ohio State has out wide. Those in question include multi-time transfer Tony Grimes and Hudauri Hines, the latter of whom has been credited for allowing five touchdowns while in coverage, which is more than his incompletions forced (four).
Yikes.
A Heisman campaign is gaining serious traction for the now-odds favorite Sayin. Hitting the road against an inferior conference opponent is an opportunity to dazzle, and Day's shown the willingness to let that happen (see: the Wisconsin game).
Day has fully opened the playbook for Sayin at this point in the season, leading to some more dynamic first halves than the sleepy starts seen against Texas, Ohio, and Washington. Even good defenses like Penn State needed a little bit of luck to keep Ohio State out of the end zone three times in the first half.
Purdue fields a bad pass defense, with severely overmatched defensive backs and not enough pass rush to disrupt this passing offense's rhythm.
The other issue here is an arduous run of six consecutive conference games for Purdue. A run of games like this, with four coming on the road already, takes its toll, especially against defenses. Legs get tired and the missed tackles pile up (see: Houston last week playing its sixth straight).
In their last three meetings, Purdue has been outscored by Ohio State, 145-38.
It's back to the first half over bet for Ohio State, while the well still has some water left in it. That time, it seems, is running dry.
Pick: Ohio State 1H TT Over 20.5
