Ole Miss vs Auburn Picks & Odds: Back the Rebels to Cruise

There’s an unwritten rule that you should never enter the same room as your ex with the person you’re currently dating. Otherwise, things could get awkward.

Awkward is exactly what’s on the table this weekend as former Ole Miss coach and current Auburn coach Hugh Freeze welcomes the Rebels and Lane Kiffin to Jordan-Hare. Kiffin reportedly turned down the Tigers' head-coaching job this offseason. Talk about drama.

Ole Miss arrives to the Plains with a 5-1 record in tow and still has an outside shot at winning the SEC West.

Auburn, meanwhile, is still looking for its first conference win of the Freeze era as it prepares for a second straight matchup against an offensive juggernaut.

The Rebels haven’t won in Auburn since 2015 – when Hugh Freeze was the coach of Ole Miss. Do the Tigers have enough offense to keep that streak alive?

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Whether it was an emotional hangover from the LSU game or something more, Ole Miss now enters Jordan-Hare off a bye week that followed a scare against Arkansas.

The normally potent Rebels offense didn't convert a single third down until the fourth quarter against the Hogs. Ole Miss was then finally able to score the last 10 points of the game and top Arkansas by a touchdown.

With the exception of that game against the Razorbacks and their lone loss at Alabama, the Rebels' offense hasn’t skipped a beat from 2022, continuing to rank near the top of most offensive metrics.

Jaxson Dart is somewhat quietly stringing together one of best seasons at the quarterback position in the SEC. His 323.3 yards of total offense per game trails only Jayden Daniels in the conference, as he’s contributed 16 total touchdowns through the air and ground this season.

A big part of the Rebels' success stems from creating explosive plays. Ole Miss ranks sixth in the country with 45 plays from scrimmage of at least 20 yards in length.

If there’s a weakness to the Ole Miss offense, it’s been the year-over-year drop-off in the run game and Quinshon Judkins’ performance. The Rebels are averaging over 70 yards less on the ground compared to last season, as Judkins’ yards per carry has dropped from an SEC-best 5.7 to 4.1.

Pete Golding’s defense still has a long way to go in his first season in Oxford, although the Rebels arguably had their best performance of the season against Arkansas.

Ole Miss held the Razorbacks to a season-low 36 rushing yards on 26 carries, which is particularly relevant against an Auburn team that relies so heavily on its run game to move the ball.

The Rebels' secondary remains its biggest liability, ranking in the bottom half of the SEC, although Payton Thorne isn’t exactly capable of a Daniels-like 414-yard performance against Ole Miss.

Sound the alarms: Auburn passed for over 100 yards against Power Five competition in the year 2023. All it took was playing one of the worst passing defenses in the nation.

The Ole Miss secondary is bad, but LSU’s is even worse. Against LSU, Auburn threw for a season-high 156 yards as Freeze’s side still lost by 30 points.

In Auburn’s six games versus Power Five teams since Bryan Harsin was fired, the 156-yard performance is somehow 62 yards more than any other outing it’s played.

The Tigers usually have to rely on their ground game to do most of the offense’s work, with Auburn ranking 12th nationally in Rush Success and third in the SEC with 191.5 yards rushing per game.

Thorne actually leads the team with 225 yards rushing, followed by four other Tigers who have rushed for 150+ yards on the season.

Auburn’s defense has been middling this season, ranking sixth in the SEC in pass defense and scoring allowed. Run defense has been a bigger issue, where the Tigers are 12th in the conference, allowing 146.8 yards per game.

Playing at Jordan-Hare does always help, however. Auburn held Georgia to a season-low (against Power Five competition) 107 rushing yards.

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Ole Miss and Auburn match up statistically:

Ole Miss Offense vs. Auburn Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	68	92
Line Yards	89	53
Pass Success	44	50
Havoc	70	37
Finishing Drives	19	74
Quality Drives	14	63

Auburn Offense vs. Ole Miss Defense

	Offense	Defense	Edge
Rush Success	12	64
Line Yards	79	77
Pass Success	100	80
Havoc	108	35
Finishing Drives	66	61
Quality Drives	72	71

Pace of Play / Other

PFF Tackling	57	58
PFF Coverage	85	29
Special Teams SP+	24	34
Middle 8	53	4
Seconds per Play	22.3 (7)	27.4 (75)
Rush Rate	54.8% (66)	62.2% (19)

Awkwardness aside, we’ve already seen a rough approximation of this game just seven days ago. An explosive LSU offense had virtually no problem racking up 563 yards of offense and 48 points. An anemic Auburn offense only mustered 18 points against one of the worst defenses in the country, as LSU covered an 11-point spread with ease.

That game was in Baton Rouge, and this game is in Jordan-Hare, but the Rebels' defense is better than LSU's, and we’re only asking Ole Miss to beat Auburn by a touchdown.

Jordan-Hare is sure to be an incredible environment at night, but we have no evidence of the Tigers' ability to keep pace with one of the best offenses in the country. The home stadium may keep this closer than the LSU game, but the Rebels should have no problem outscoring Auburn.