Overrated, Underrated College Football Teams Based on Week 5 Power Ratings

Sep 25, 2018 8:25 AM EDT
  • Collin Wilson compares his college football betting power ratings to the AP poll to determine which teams have value based on public perception.
  • Once again, LSU is overrated in the betting world, while Michigan is underrated.

As exciting as the Week 4 primetime games were, the AP Top 25 suffered little change for the top 15 teams. Stanford remained No. 7 after one of the biggest bad beats in recent college football memory, as chronicled by The Action Network’s Steve Petrella.

Oklahoma and LSU swapped spots within the top 10, but neither team had a particularly good Saturday. LSU lost the yardage battle to Louisiana Tech, while Oklahoma survived an overtime game against 30-point underdog Army.

Texas Tech, Cal, Duke, Texas and Kentucky all enter this week’s top 25. Mississippi State fell from No. 14 to 23 before a showdown with former coach Dan Mullen and Florida.

With The Action Network’s Week 5 projections and power ratings in mind, let’s take a look at the most overrated and underrated teams in the AP Top 25.


Overrated College Football Teams

LSU Tigers

Another week of LSU on the overrated list. While I try to find other teams for the focus of this column, the Tigers moved to No. 5 in the AP poll, which is wild.

Some voters may not have seen the Louisiana Tech box score, which included the Bulldogs outgaining LSU. La Tech threw for 330 yards against the vaunted Tigers secondary.

I have no faith in an Ole Miss defense, but if LSU is giving up 330 yards through the air to a Group of Five defense, wait until the Rebels’ wide receivers come knocking.

Although it won’t have much meaning to the players, this is an emotional game for coach Ed Orgeron, who was fired at Ole Miss in 2007.

West Virginia Mountaineers

The Mountaineers held steady at 12, and took a major jump in the power ratings this week after a beatdown of Kansas State. The Wildcats are 93rd in total defense, and didn’t provide much of a fight against Will Grier.

West Virginia will get its biggest test so far this season in Lubbock, where Texas Tech ranks 27th in defensive pass completions at 52.6%. As shown against Oklahoma State in Stillwater in Week 4, the Red Raiders’ defense is getting better under coordinator David Gibbs weekly.

Virginia Tech Hokies

The most surprising aspect of the poll was Boston College receiving zero votes after a loss to Purdue, while Virginia Tech got 55 votes (28th overall) after a straight-up loss as a 28-point favorite to Old Dominion. Josh Jackson is lost for the year with a broken ankle, making the Hokies easily the most overrated team in the nation by receiving a single vote.

Underrated College Football Teams

Michigan Wolverines

Another week of this column, another week of the Wolverines being underrated. Michigan comes off a 46-point drubbing of Nebraska, easily covering an 18-point spread. The vanilla non-cover against SMU was under scrutiny, but once conference play started, we saw the real Michigan team.

It’s interesting to note that Michigan’s future is directly tied to Notre Dame, and with the Irish enforcing themselves against Wake Forest, we are believers in the Wolverines once again.

On deck for Michigan is Northwestern and Maryland before a showdown with Wisconsin. The Wolverines are 30-1 to win the national title at the Westgate in Las Vegas.

Texas A&M Aggies

Some AP voters love to look at the win-loss column, and in the Aggies’ case you would see 2-2.  Should that keep them from the top 25? Not in my opinion, as The Action Network power ratings have Texas A&M 18th.

A&M was the first team to cover against Alabama this season. For reference, the Aggies would be favored over 10 teams currently in the AP top 25.

Boston College Eagles

Saturday was a bad day for the Eagles, losing 30-13 to a Purdue team that was winless on the year. Boston College was ranked 23rd in last week’s AP poll, but received zero votes in this week’s poll.

That is quite an adjustment for a team I have ranked 25th overall in the power ratings. If you haven’t had the chance to see Chalk Talk on Saturday mornings, I mention that turnover regression was coming for both teams, as the Eagles were +6 to the Boilermakers at -4.

Boston College is still good, and we will back them in plenty of ACC games.

Credit:

John Glaser-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kellen Mond

Follow Collin Wilson on Twitter
@_Collin1

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SCHEDULE
OPEN
CURR
# BETS
DUKE
CLEM
58
-27
59.5
-29.5
RICE
LSU
51
-44
52.5
-41.5
KU
OKLA
68
-34.5
70
-35
CIN
UCF
59.5
-8
60.5
-7
ISU
TEX
51
-3
49.5
-2.5
ARIZ
WSU
60.5
-10
63
-10