Penn State vs. Iowa Odds, Betting System Pick: The Model Edge That Fits A 58% Winning Angle

Penn State vs. Iowa Odds, Betting System Pick: The Model Edge That Fits A 58% Winning Angle article feature image
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Penn State vs. Iowa Odds

Penn State Odds +2.5
Iowa Odds -2.5
Moneyline +110 / -130
Over/Under 41 (-110 / -110)
Time 4 p.m. ET
TV FOX
Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

The most important game on the Week 6 slate is Penn State vs. Iowa, featuring two top-five undefeated clubs.

It’s also lining up to provide a whole ton of value for bettors.

The market’s expecting a low-scoring, tight game. Iowa is a slim, 2.5-point favorite, while the total of 41 is the lowest on the board.

The public has shaped the odds for this high-profile matchup throughout the week. However, there’s still an error on the spread.

Our model has identified a substantial edge in this Big Ten showdown — one that’s cashed at a 58% rate since 2005 and went a perfect 3-0 in Week 5.

College Football Week 6 Betting System Picks

*Odds and betting data as of Saturday morning

Road ‘dogs in conference play tend to be undervalued due to increased familiarity among opponents. Plus, if the game is heavily bet — like this one — the public is likely on the favorite, inflating the line.

The system’s pick Saturday is Penn State +2.5.

Teams fitting this criteria are a blistering 269-198-9 (58%). The model last week identified Michigan (+2), Texas A&M (+7) and Boston College (+14.5), who all covered; the Wolverines and Aggies won outright.

Our College Football PRO Projections bill the Nittany Lions as just 0.2-point underdogs for the MAC tilt — more than two points off the market number.

Penn State head coach James Franklin’s been exceptional in the underdog role, cashing eight of the last 11 overall and four of the last five away from home.

Iowa, meanwhile, is just 1-4 against the spread in its the last five games after scoring 40 or more points in its previous game.

Pick: Penn State +2.5

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