The Sam Houston Bearkats take on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors in Honolulu, Hawaii. Kickoff is set for 11:59 p.m. ET on Mountain West Network.
Hawaii is favored by -6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -260. Sam Houston comes in at +210 to pull off the upset. The total is set at 48.5 points.
Here’s my Sam Houston vs. Hawaii prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 6.
Sam Houston vs Hawaii Prediction
- Sam Houston vs. Hawaii Pick: Sam Houston Team Total Under 21.5 (-130)
My Hawaii vs. Sam Houston best bet is on the Bearkats to go under their team total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Sam Houston vs Hawaii Odds
| Sam Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -105 | 49 -110o / -110u | +210 |
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -115 | 49 -110o / -110u | -260 |
- Sam Houston vs Hawaii Spread: Hawaii -6.5, Sam Houston +6.5
- Sam Houston vs Hawaii Over/Under: 49
- Sam Houston vs Hawaii Moneyline: Sam Houston +210, Hawaii -260
Sam Houston vs Hawaii Preview
Sam Houston State Bearkats Betting Preview: Trying to Figure It Out
Sam Houston shows up for this one off a 28-21 home (well, kinda) loss to UNLV.
The Bearkats defense was gashed again in this one by the Rebels, as UNLV quarterback Anthony Colandrea took full control of the offense by completing 19-of-23 passes for 249 yards and a couple of scores.
Running back Jai’Den Thomas scored a touchdown, and wide receiver Jaden Bradley racked up 125 yards as UNLV scored in every quarter and was never seriously threatened.
The Bearkats offense has not quite adjusted to head coach Phil Longo's new scheme and tempo, as this group continues to operate inefficiently and unproductively.
Sam Houston did have two explosive plays in the game against UNLV, which is susceptible to giving up those kinds of plays, as we saw against Idaho State.
Outside of that, this bunch averaged 3.3 yards per play and went 1-for-12 on third down. For the season, SHSU has converted just 3-of-26 on third down and has seen only two of its five red-zone trips end with touchdowns.
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors Betting Preview: Time for the Defense
It has been tough sledding offensively this season for Hawaii, as the ‘Bows have averaged just 298 yards per game and 4.2 yards per play through two weeks.
Situationally, Hawaii has been bad on third down (7-of-24, 29%), and only two of its seven red-zone trips have resulted in touchdowns.
The major concern for Hawaii is the health of quarterback Micah Alejado, who was injured in the opener against Stanford and re-injured in the third quarter of a blowout loss on the road against Arizona.
Luke Weaver and Dermaricus Davis have split reps this week at practice, as Alejado has been held out while wearing a walking boot.
Head coach Timmy Chang has played it coy as to whether or not Alejado will be available for this one. I have to assume he has buyer's regret after playing him in a blowout loss last weekend.
Defensively, Hawaii has played well this season while playing up in competition against two Power 4 opponents. The ‘Bows defense has been rock solid situationally, allowing just 11-of-28 third downs to be converted and only 5-of-10 red-zone chances to end in touchdowns.
If there was ever a week for the defense to come up big and carry the team to a much-needed win, it would be this week.
Sam Houston vs Hawaii Pick, Betting Analysis
This is going to be the best defense Sam Houston has faced all season, and compounding the issue is the long travel. Home Hawaii is much more palpable than road Hawaii, and this is a spot where the ‘Bows defense could really shine.
I'm going to grab Sam Houston's team total under 21.5 (-130) available at DraftKings.
Sam Houston isn't explosive or efficient, and that's not a good recipe for success against Hawaii.
When diving into the Warriors' last game against Arizona, short scoring drives really set the table for the blowout. Arizona was given short fields time and again, and the Hawaii defense was put in some tough spots against a superior opponent.
Against Stanford, the Cardinal had a fumble return touchdown and a short drive that set up a field goal.
Moving the ball methodically against Hawaii hasn’t been done frequently this season, and the concern here for Sam Houston is that it doesn't run the ball particularly well and allows way too much Havoc.
Through two weeks, Bearkat quarterbacks have been sacked six times, and the offense has surrendered 16 tackles for loss. When you're 3-of-26 on third down against this Hawaii defense, the result will be plenty of third-and-medium situations or worse.
Hawaii has been balanced this season in the run/pass splits and will almost assuredly run the ball here against this SHSU front with a backup quarterback likely to play.
Everything in the passing game has been short to intermediate. In fact, Hawaii has just four pass plays all season longer than 20 yards. The offense has been methodical and requires lengthy drives to move the ball, although it could find some moderate success in explosiveness here against Sam Houston.
It feels like one of those pivotal games where the trajectory of each team's season hinges on what happens in this one. I can see Chang leaning on his defense in a lower-scoring game and being conservative with a backup quarterback (assuming Alejado is out).
I trust the Hawaii defense to lock down against the high-tempo, low-output SHSU offense.
Pick: Sam Houston Team Total Under 21.5 (-130)
