The San Diego State Aztecs take on the Northern Illinois Huskies in DeKalb, Illinois. Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
San Diego State is favored by 2.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -130. The total is set at 43 points.
Here’s my San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois prediction and college football picks for Saturday, September 27.
San Diego State vs Northern Illinois Prediction
- San Diego State vs. Northern Illinois Pick: Northern Illinois +3 or Better
My Northern Illinois vs. San Diego State best bet is on the Huskies to cover. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
San Diego State vs Northern Illinois Odds
| San Diego St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-2.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | -130 |
| N. Illinois Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+2.5 -110 | 43 -110o / -110u | +110 |
San Diego State vs Northern Illinois Picks
I would project the above spread if both teams were playing on a neutral field.
However, not only will Northern Illinois host this game, but the Aztecs will have to travel 2,000 miles in a tough situational spot.
Following a huge upset win over California as two-touchdown underdogs, Sean Lewis will try to get his team ready for a rather meaningless non-conference game in DeKalb one week before the start of Mountain West play. As a result, I could see them coming out a bit lethargic.
Additionally, Northern Illinois has played a much tougher schedule so far, with its last two games coming on the road against Power 4 competition (Maryland and Mississippi State), in which it held its own before wearing down late.
In fact, this matchup features one of the widest strength-of-schedule disparities of the weekend.
Yes, San Diego State looked amazing last week in its victory over Cal, but I do believe the Aztecs caught the Bears napping in a major sleepy spot. The Bears also had essentially six turnovers, including failed fourth-down attempts and missed field goals, in addition to three giveaways (two of which resulted in touchdowns).
This is still an Aztec team that got blown out in its only road affair against a bad Washington State squad. It's also still a subpar offense that had 25% of its yardage output last week on a fluky 80-yard touchdown reception.
Northern Illinois' defense can control this game, while Chavon Wright and company should do just enough to keep the chains moving in the Huskies' extremely run-heavy offense against a San Diego State front that can be pushed around to keep this likely low-scoring affair very tight throughout.
Ultimately, I'm selling high on San Diego State in a tough spot against an NIU team I expect to be motivated after two straight losses against a future conference opponent ahead of its move to the Mountain West next season.
Against FBS competition, Northern Illinois head coach Thomas Hammock is 24-12-1 ATS (66.7%) with a four-plus point average cover margin as an underdog.
Pick: Northern Illinois +3 or Better
