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The South Alabama Jaguars take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves in Jonesboro, Arkansas, on Thursday, Oct. 8. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Arkansas State is favored by -1.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -120. South Alabama, meanwhile, enters as a +1.5 underdog and is +100 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 60.5 total points.
Here’s my South Alabama vs. Arkansas State prediction and college football pick for Thursday, October 8.
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Prediction
- South Alabama vs Arkansas State Pick: Under 60.5
My Arkansas State vs. South Alabama best bet is on both teams to go under the total. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Odds
| S. Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -112 | 60.5 -105o / -115u | +100 |
| Arkansas St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -108 | 60.5 -105o / -115u | -120 |
- South Alabama vs Arkansas State Spread: South Alabama +1.5 (-112), Arkansas State -1.5 (-108)
- South Alabama vs Arkansas State Over/Under: 60.5 (-105o / -115u)
- South Alabama vs Arkansas State Moneyline: South Alabama +100, Arkansas State -120
South Alabama vs Arkansas State College Football Preview
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview: Quarterback Switch Sparks Offense
South Alabama has caught lightning in a bottle since switching to Jared Hollins at quarterback over the last three games.
Hollins was filling in for the injured Bishop Davenport but seized control of the position after excellent play at home against Ohio and in a road defeat at Kentucky.
The offensive explosion continued last week, as the Jaguars rolled over ULM, scoring 52 points.
Hollins has completed 61% of his passes with 779 passing yards and six touchdowns this season.
The receiving trio of Brendan Jenkins, Anthony Eager and Jeremiah Jones-Thomas has provided consistency and explosiveness in the passing game.
The Jags have three running backs who can tote the rock, and each of them has a nose for the end zone, as PJ Martin, Trae’von Dunbar and Keenan Phillips have combined to rush for 11 touchdowns this season.
This offense is humming on all cylinders and should keep rolling in this matchup on Thursday night.
The Jaguars defense leaves a lot to be desired, surrendering 35 or more points in each of the last three weeks, and the injury report is growing longer by the day.
Several depth pieces in the secondary and at linebacker remain questionable, and USA is coming off its worst defensive showing of the season against ULM.
Arkansas State Red Wolves Betting Preview: Altman Throttles Down Tempo
Arkansas State has experienced a change in offensive philosophy with new offensive coordinator Garrett Altman throttling down the tempo significantly. The change has produced mixed results.
The offensive explosiveness is way down compared to prior seasons, and the Red Wolves haven't been able to punch back when opponents put points on the board.
When trailing, Arkansas State has thrown the ball effectively, but this team wants to run the ball. The pace will be slow if the game is close or the Red Wolves have the lead.
Trey Owens has played well at quarterback, completing 67% of his passes for 1,043 yards. The ground game has been serviceable, with Solomon Baggett leading the way with 211 rushing yards.
Arkansas State has three receivers in Hunter Summers, Chauncy Cobb and Jaylen Bonelli who have each taken a decent share of targets and combined for 736 receiving yards and four touchdowns.
The offensive line also holds up well, so Arkansas State should experience success against South Alabama’s porous defense.
The Arkansas State defense has benefited from the slower pace of play by both the Red Wolves offense and their opponents, but it's not strong.
Opponents have run the ball a ton on Arkansas State, which has seen the fifth-highest rate of rushing plays in the country. That's bad news, as the defense ranks just 127th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
South Alabama will find explosive plays on the ground, which will open up the pass, where Arkansas State is allowing a 71% completion rate and 8.2 yards per attempt.
All this has happened despite not playing a strong passing attack this season. This secondary could get torched by South Alabama.
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with Arkansas State listed as a 1.5-point favorite, and the total has been bet up from 56.5 to 60.5. I'm going to take the under in this matchup.
South Alabama has been very fortunate recently and has benefited from a +6 turnover margin, which has set its offense up for quick scores. While the last three games have featured high totals, the flukiness is worth noting.
The Jaguars are also an extremely run-heavy team with a 60% rush rate. The Jags will have success on the ground here, but I'm not sure we'll see many explosive rushes.
Arkansas State has given up some yardage on the ground, but the Red Wolves rank 43rd nationally in preventing explosive plays on the ground.
We should see South Alabama take a methodical approach to work the ball into the red zone, something it didn't have to do against Ohio or ULM, both of which have terrible defenses.
Arkansas State won't get sped up in this game and will continue to operate at one of the slowest tempos in the country. The Red Wolves are balanced offensively but should run the ball against a weak South Alabama front.
This offense will be methodical as well because the explosiveness won't be there. The Red Wolves rank just 106th nationally in registering explosive plays.
This series has featured highly contested battles over the last several years, and the last five meetings have gone under the posted total.
Arkansas State will control the pace and operate very slowly, but the Jaguars have also considerably slowed their operating tempo since the start of the season.
I don't think South Alabama's offense will look nearly as potent in this matchup, and its defense won't look nearly as bad.
These teams are scoring touchdowns on only 57% of red-zone trips this year, and if we get three combined red-zone stops, this game will finish under the posted total.
Pick: Under 60.5
South Alabama vs Arkansas State Betting Trends
