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Thursday Night Football.
Tonight's NFL matchup between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Dallas Cowboys isn't the only battle on the gridiron tonight.
On top of the NFL game on deck, we have four college football games on tap:
- Liberty vs. Sam Houston
- Western Kentucky vs. Missouri State
- UTSA vs. USF
- Arkansas State vs. South Alabama
With four games to get to, let's take a look at our Thursday college football predictions and NCAAF picks for the games on October 9.
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Thursday College Football Predictions, Picks
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our college football betting staff is targeting from Thursday's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Liberty vs Sam Houston Pick
By RoadToCFB
Liberty has sat as a -13.5 home favorite for almost the entire duration of this line; a brief touchdown to -13 spawned enough action to bump the number back up. The over/under was bet up from 50.5 at open to 52.5, above the key total of 52.
The bottom line is that Liberty has a better roster and is an ascending team in 2026.
It has the players in the secondary to fully match what Sam Houston wants to do, plus two disruptors up front — Brenton Williams and Lorenzo Payne — to put pressure on Sam Houston quarterback Landyn Locke behind a subpar offensive line.
Locke has six recorded turnover-worthy throws for four interceptions, including those two ill-advised pick-sixes against Texas Tech. Perhaps he's not "turnover-prone," but Locke is at least susceptible to making mistakes.
Sam Houston is also clearly vulnerable up front and in the run game, a perfect recipe for disaster against a Jamey Chadwell offense.
Liberty calls a run on nearly 63% of its offensive plays, 12th-most in the country and eighth among teams that don't run a traditional option (or slight modification of it like Rice).
Although Liberty has been bad as a big favorite as a member of Conference USA, I'm more concerned with Phil Longo's record off a bye week.
At Sam Houston, Longo led the Bearkats to an 0-3 ATS mark coming off a bye week, an indicator that there's more rust than readiness with his approach. Sam Houston is 0-6 ATS coming off the bye since it joined the FBS.
Two seasons of abject failure in Lynchburg may have finally motivated Chadwell to change his approach to games.
With a roster full of former blue-chip players thriving, this is a dangerous team in Conference USA.
Pick: Liberty -13.5 (Play to -14)
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Western Kentucky vs Missouri State Pick
By RoadToCFB
Missouri State opened as a +2.5 road underdog and was initially bet up to a -1.5 favorite before action came in heavily on WKU. It has remained unmoved at +2.5 since Sunday.
The total sat around 55 for most of the week before bets nudged it up to 56.5, where it sits now. There's at least one respected move under 56 points.
When a team tells you it's bad, listen to it. Western Kentucky is bad.
The Toppers are stunted from a play-calling standpoint on offense, have no dudes on defense, and their line play on both sides is downright atrocious.
They made New Mexico State look almost excellent, and consensus power ratings tab the Aggies 113th nationally. What we learned from that game is that the cure for a common offense is a bad defense.
WKU returns to Bowling Green for just its second home game of the year. It returns after traveling over 6,000 miles with four road games and an 0-4 record against FBS competition. Two of those games were also played in different time zones.
The Tops also rely extremely heavily on their defensive starters. Given the poor performance so far, that tells me the coaching staff isn't confident in its defensive depth.
While I'm not sure I'm confident backing Skyler Locklear in a road conference game just yet, offensive coordinator Mark Cala loves to run with pace, and I haven't seen any reason to believe the WKU defense does much to stop Missouri State's offense.
This field should play fast in the warm October conditions expected in Bowling Green South (Kentucky, that is). WKU's defense has yet to show a shred of reason to believe it can slow down an FBS offense.
Pick: Missouri State Team Total Over 27.5 (-110 · DraftKings)
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UTSA vs USF Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with UTSA listed as a seven-point favorite in the contest, with a total that opened at 52.5 and has been bet down to its current offering of 49.5. I'm willing to lay the number with UTSA.
We've seen UTSA put together strong offensive performances this season at home, as it's scored 45 and 59 points inside the Alamodome.
The offense has remained balanced and boasts a strong rushing game with three capable backs. Meanwhile, Owen McCown has taken care of the ball and avoided catastrophic mistakes.
USF has a strong defense on paper, but the opponents it's faced have been nothing close to the offensive firepower UTSA is capable of unlocking at home.
The defense hasn't forced an interception since the opening game of the season and has faced four weak passing attacks. I won't be surprised if the secondary gets exposed a bit in this game, and UTSA finally starts to register the explosives we've been waiting on all season.
South Florida’s offense is going to have to play catch-up in this game, and I worry about the ability of this team to execute.
The Bulls have one of the least explosive passing attacks in the country, and while running back DJ Crowther — the Dartmouth transfer — shined against Bowling Green and Delaware State, this will be a much stiffer task this week.
There's also a significant coaching mismatch, with UTSA head coach Jeff Traylor being widely considered one of the best coaches at the G6 level. Many, including myself, are stunned he hasn't landed a bigger job, and on the other side, USF's Brian Hartline is coaching just his sixth game as a head coach.
This is a huge spot for the Roadrunners, who have one of the most drastic home/road performance splits in the country. I think we see UTSA’s best football on Thursday night, and I'm laying the number.
Pick: UTSA -7
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Arkansas State vs South Alabama Pick
By Joshua Nunn
This line opened with Arkansas State listed as a 1.5-point favorite, and the total has been bet up from 56.5 to 60.5. I'm going to take the under in this matchup.
South Alabama has been very fortunate recently and has benefited from a +6 turnover margin, which has set its offense up for quick scores. While the last three games have featured high totals, the flukiness is worth noting.
The Jaguars are also an extremely run-heavy team with a 60% rush rate. The Jags will have success on the ground here, but I'm not sure we'll see many explosive rushes.
Arkansas State has given up some yardage on the ground, but the Red Wolves rank 43rd nationally in preventing explosive plays on the ground.
We should see South Alabama take a methodical approach to work the ball into the red zone, something it didn't have to do against Ohio or ULM, both of which have terrible defenses.
Arkansas State won't get sped up in this game and will continue to operate at one of the slowest tempos in the country. The Red Wolves are balanced offensively but should run the ball against a weak South Alabama front.
This offense will be methodical as well because the explosiveness won't be there. The Red Wolves rank just 106th nationally in registering explosive plays.
This series has featured highly contested battles over the last several years, and the last five meetings have gone under the posted total.
Arkansas State will control the pace and operate very slowly, but the Jaguars have also considerably slowed their operating tempo since the start of the season.
I don't think South Alabama's offense will look nearly as potent in this matchup, and its defense won't look nearly as bad.
These teams are scoring touchdowns on only 57% of red-zone trips this year, and if we get three combined red-zone stops, this game will finish under the posted total.
Pick: Under 60.5
