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The South Florida Bulls take on the UTSA Roadrunners in San Antonio, Texas. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN.
UTSA is favored by -7 points on the spread with a moneyline of -278. The total is set at 49.5 points.
Here’s my USF vs. UTSA prediction and college football pick for Thursday, October 8.
USF vs UTSA Prediction
- USF vs UTSA Pick: UTSA -7
My UTSA vs. USF best bet is on the Roadrunners to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page, and make sure to download the Action Network app in order to get the latest picks and betting analysis.
USF vs UTSA Odds
| USF Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7 -105 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | +225 |
| UTSA Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7 -115 | 49.5 -115o / -105u | -278 |
- USF vs UTSA point spread: UTSA -7 (-115), USF +7 (-105)
- USF vs UTSA over/under: 49.5 (-115o / -105u)
- USF vs UTSA moneyline: USF +225, UTSA -278
USF vs UTSA College Football Preview
USF Bulls Betting Preview: Frauds?
USF is coming off its first loss of the season, a 17-13 defeat at home against Temple last week. The offense has been stuck in neutral all season while migrating to a slower-paced, run-heavy approach, and the explosiveness we used to see with USF is a thing of the past.
The defense has played well enough to find the Bulls at 4-1, as fraudulent as it may be.
This team has scored one offensive touchdown in the first half in four games against FBS competition, and the ground game is averaging just 3.7 yards per carry against FBS teams with minimal potency to register chunk plays.
Michael Van Buren is a talented quarterback, and we've seen flashes of brilliance from him, at times, this season. His fourth-down heroics against Army single-handedly gave USF a chance to win that game.
Van Buren has been smart with the ball and hasn't thrown an interception this season, but the Bulls are throwing for just 149 yards per game against teams not named Delaware State.
The performance bottomed out two weeks ago, as USF threw for just 52 yards against Bowling Green. Yes, you read that right.
The Bulls' defense has performed this season, allowing just 14.6 points and 313 yards per game. The metrics are partially aided by a slow game flow in every game this season, and the competition has included weaker offenses.
Situational execution has been the bright spot, as has preventing explosive plays. USF ranks third nationally in our defensive explosiveness surrendered metric, and the Bulls are allowing just 33% successful third-down conversions this season.
This team is going into a hostile environment off a short week and will have to play its best defensive football of the season if it's going to pin down UTSA’s offense.
UTSA Roadrunners Betting Preview: Triangle of Toughness
UTSA is also 4-1 this season, which includes a pair of home wins over FCS-level UTRGV in the opener and Colorado State a couple of weeks ago.
The Roadrunners showed very well on the road against Texas State and Texas, but not as well last week on the road at Rice.
UTSA scored on its first four possessions of the game, but as is the case with the Roadrunners away from home, stalled drives and miscues plagued this team in the second half.
Quarterback Owen McCown has looked good at home, but he's mediocre on the road.
The Roadrunners are really missing serious, threatening wide receivers that can score from anywhere on the field. The pass explosiveness numbers are down considerably from prior seasons, and UTSA ranks just 97th nationally in explosiveness registered via the pass.
The ground game has been solid, with Will Henderson and Brandon High combining for 611 yards and five rushing touchdowns while averaging 5.8 yards per carry. A’Marion Peterson leads the team with four rushing touchdowns and is averaging 7.2 yards per carry this season.
This is a deep running back room that will have to be at its best if UTSA is going to do anything other than settle for field goals in the red zone in this one.
The UTSA defense played really well in defending the inverted, gun-option attack that Rice deploys. The team fell apart defensively the week prior against Colorado State’s potent offense, but the rest of the earlier showings weren't bad.
The pass rush has been largely ineffective, and stopping the run has been an issue while facing three strong rushing offenses.
The Triangle of Toughness is something head coach Jeff Traylor has talked about throughout his tenure in San Antonio, and the Roadrunners need to start figuring out ways to put a complete game together if they're going to contend in a deep and talented AAC this season.
USF vs UTSA Pick, Betting Analysis
This line opened with UTSA listed as a seven-point favorite in the contest, with a total that opened at 52.5 and has been bet down to its current offering of 49.5. I'm willing to lay the number with UTSA.
We've seen UTSA put together strong offensive performances this season at home, as it's scored 45 and 59 points inside the Alamodome.
The offense has remained balanced and boasts a strong rushing game with three capable backs. Meanwhile, Owen McCown has taken care of the ball and avoided catastrophic mistakes.
USF has a strong defense on paper, but the opponents it's faced have been nothing close to the offensive firepower UTSA is capable of unlocking at home.
The defense hasn't forced an interception since the opening game of the season and has faced four weak passing attacks. I won't be surprised if the secondary gets exposed a bit in this game, and UTSA finally starts to register the explosives we've been waiting on all season.
South Florida’s offense is going to have to play catch-up in this game, and I worry about the ability of this team to execute.
The Bulls have one of the least explosive passing attacks in the country, and while running back DJ Crowther — the Dartmouth transfer — shined against Bowling Green and Delaware State, this will be a much stiffer task this week.
There's also a significant coaching mismatch, with Traylor being widely considered one of the best coaches at the G6 level. Many, including myself, are stunned he hasn't landed a bigger job, and on the other side, Brian Hartline is coaching just his sixth game as a head coach.
This is a huge spot for the Roadrunners, who have one of the most drastic home/road performance splits in the country. I think we see UTSA’s best football on Thursday night, and I'm laying the number.
Pick: UTSA -7
