The South Alabama Jaguars take on the Georgia State Panthers in Atlanta, Georgia, on Thursday, Oct. 23. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
South Alabama is favored by 6.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -240. Georgia State, meanwhile, enters as a +6.5 underdog and is +195 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 55 total points.
Here’s my South Alabama vs. Georgia State prediction and NCAAF picks for Thursday, October 23.
South Alabama vs Georgia State Prediction
- South Alabama vs. Georgia State Pick: South Alabama -6.5
My Georgia State vs. South Alabama best bet is on the Jaguars to cover the spread. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
South Alabama vs Georgia State Odds
| South Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | -240 |
| Georgia State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -110 | 55 -110o / -110u | +195 |
- South Alabama vs Georgia State Spread: South Alabama -6.5, Georgia State +6.5
- South Alabama vs Georgia State Over/Under: 55 Points
- South Alabama vs Georgia State Moneyline: South Alabama -240, Georgia State +195
South Alabama vs Georgia State College Football Betting Preview
South Alabama Jaguars Betting Preview: Improvement in Mobile
Despite a 1-6 overall record, including 0-6 against FBS opponents, South Alabama is showing signs of improvement.
Coming off the bye week, the Jaguars made defensive adjustments in Week 7 and held their FBS opponent under 30 for the first time this season.
However, that game resulted in Arkansas State kicking a game-winning field goal in a 15-14 win.
That was the second game in which South Alabama showed improvement. Heading into the bye, the Jaguars lost to Troy, 31-24, in overtime.
South Alabama simply can’t close games.
Inopportune turnovers, penalties, and late scores allowed have turned two possible wins into two definitive losses. Against Arkansas State, the Jaguars committed over 110 yards in penalties and blew a 14-3 fourth-quarter lead.
Starting guard Asher Hale is listed as questionable for this game. Though grading below replacement level this season, missing a starter on an already bad offensive line isn’t ideal. It’s one of the most penalized units in the country, with Hale himself being flagged in each of his last three games.
As a result, South Alabama’s run game has underachieved this season — a tough blow for a run-centric offense.
Kentrell Bullock has forced the second-most missed tackles in the Sun Belt (32), but has managed just one rush of 15-plus yards so far this year (124 attempts). Last season, South Alabama’s offense thrived on explosive runs, with Bullock recording 12.
Offensive struggles aside, there’s still a path – albeit a narrow one – to bowl eligibility.
For a team like South Alabama, especially at 1-6 and having lost key pieces last offseason, bowl eligibility remains meaningful. The Jaguars play just one team currently sitting above .500 (Southern Miss, which is played at home in Week 12).
So while it’s a distant goal, expect Major Applewhite and South Alabama to eye a repeat of 2024, where it started 2-4 and finished with a bowl win (7-6).
Georgia State Panthers Betting Preview: Tough Scene
Flying largely under the spotlight, the last two years of Georgia State football have been among the most miserable stretches for any FBS team.
Outside of two major upsets – one as a 9.5-point ‘dog at Vanderbilt and another as a 21-point ‘dog at Texas State – the Panthers were rarely competitive, losing five of their nine games by multiple scores in 2024.
This season, Georgia State is off to an 0-6 start against FBS foes and currently allows the most points per game in the country to those opponents (44.5).
Nobody commits more penalties than the Panthers, a flaw that would have cost them even more games if they had played in more than one one-score contest this year.
The anomaly occurred in a 14-7 loss to James Madison, where the team was a 20.5-point underdog at home. The Dukes committed 11 penalties for 100 yards (two on critical downs) and came up empty twice in opposing territory.
Quarterback Cameran Brown stepped in for journeyman T.J. Finley (yes, this is where Finley currently is) over the past two games, accounting for six touchdowns and no turnovers.
On one hand, Georgia State’s offense has looked better under Brown, but on the other hand, those performances came against two of the weakest defenses on the schedule.
Other veteran transfers, such as running back Rashad Amos and Branson Robinson, haven’t found much success, and that’s chiefly due to an offensive line that could be the FBS’s worst.
Seven players have logged 200-plus snaps this season, and the only lineman showing any consistency, Akron transfer Thyler Williams, splits time between center and guard. Meanwhile, the two players who've appeared at right tackle have combined for 12 penalties.
It’s not just losing football – it’s underachieving expectations. Georgia State is also 1-6 against the spread, with its lone cover coming in that game against James Madison.
South Alabama vs Georgia State Pick, Betting Analysis
There hasn’t been much movement in the point spread or total for this game – it holds steady from an opening mark of South Alabama -6.5 and a total set at 55.5.
The loser here effectively ends its season and becomes bowl ineligible. This pivotal matchup will reveal a lot about the state of each program (particularly the coaching staff and locker room), depending on how much fight these teams show.
South Alabama and Georgia State are set on different trajectories.
The Jaguars have shown marked improvement over their last two games, particularly on defense. Since covering against James Madison, Georgia State is 0-2, outscored 82-42 by teams with a combined .500 record.
The change at quarterback gave Georgia State a slight boost on offense, but its league-worst defense keeps the floor low.
South Alabama enters with one of the most underwhelming pass rushes in the country, but that could be solved by facing a paper-thin offensive line. The Jaguars’ defensive front played much better after the bye against Arkansas State, generating 10 tackles for loss, though they came up empty in the sack department.
This line appears to have been set on both teams’ season-long form in mind. However, South Alabama has been much more competitive against higher-level competition like Tulane (33-31 loss) and even Auburn (31-15).
Georgia State hasn’t shown much fight and was lucky to cover against James Madison.
The Panthers aren’t a very well-coached team, and that’ll show on Thursday night.
Pick: South Alabama -6.5
South Alabama vs Georgia State Betting Trends
