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This Saturday will mark the third Saturday in October, which means Alabama and Tennessee will be getting together for their annual rivalry game.
Under Nick Saban, Alabama dominated the series and won 15 straight meetings. Since Tennessee snapped that streak in 2022, the rivals have split the last four meetings, with the home team winning each meeting.
Despite that, Tennessee is a home underdog this time around. Oddsmakers may not have too much respect for Tennessee's offense, as the Volunteers have yet to surpass 24 points in conference play.
The Vols have been rotating a pair of young quarterbacks, Faizon Brandon and George MacIntyre, and MacIntyre will get another start this week.
Alabama's own young quarterback — Keelon Russell — appears to be on the verge of establishing himself as one of the nation's best signal callers. However, he looked mortal last week as he had a tough assignment against a stingy Georgia defense.
Russell, head coach Kalen DeBoer and the Tide faithful may still be stewing over the controversial no-call on a potential pass interference penalty that ended Alabama's comeback attempt last week.
Despite the loss to the Bulldogs, the Crimson Tide didn't lose ground in either major poll. However, this week, they'll likely be without Ryan Coleman-Williams.
Can the Crimson Tide get it done without their WR1 in Knoxville? Check out my Alabama vs. Tennessee parlay picks.
Tennessee vs Alabama Odds
| Tennessee Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | +250 |
| Alabama Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -110 | 50.5 -115o / -105u | -315 |
Tennessee vs Alabama Parlay, Picks
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QB Keelon Russell 225+ Alt Passing Yards (-158)
In his redshirt season, Keelon Russell saw action in two games, going 11-for-15 for 143 yards and two touchdowns. Despite having a first-round pick under center in Ty Simpson, it was enough to excite Alabama fans for the day he would be named the starting quarterback.
That day happened this year after he beat out Austin Mack over the summer.
In his first season as the starting quarterback, Russell is completing 68% of his passes and has thrown for 1,599 yards, 12 touchdowns and two interceptions. He ranks third in the FBS in QBR.
The redshirt freshman has also thrown for 225 passing yards in four of his first six games, averaging 266.5 per game.
One of the matchups that Russell didn't clear this line came last week when he threw for 185 against Georgia. While last week's game went on as scheduled, Hurricane Isaias left behind inclement conditions, and Georgia's defense is no picnic when the weather is perfect.
The Crimson Tide have another difficult defense to crack this week. However, I expect Russell to have more success this week.
Tennessee is 55th in Passing Success Rate and allowed 200-yard passers against Georgia Tech and Texas.
Arch Manning only threw the ball 19 times against Tennessee, but he averaged 10.6 yards per attempt. He connected for passes of 29, 30 and 43 yards despite the Volunteers being first in Passing Explosiveness Allowed.
Russell is averaging 9.9 yards per attempt and has been deadly accurate when throwing downfield. While not having Coleman-Williams will hurt, the Crimson Tide don't lack weapons. A couple of deep shots should help Russell clear 225 yards for the fifth time this season.
RB DeSean Bishop Anytime Touchdown (-175)
While the Volunteers' offense has stalled somewhat of late, that hasn't stopped DeSean Bishop. While the junior was held to 34 yards against Texas, he's responded in a big way the last two weeks.
Against Auburn, he ran for 220 yards and all three of Tennessee's touchdowns before going for 138 yards and the game-winning score last week at Arkansas.
Bishop is now up to 678 rushing yards and eight touchdowns, both of which rank in the top 10 of the FBS. Dating back to last season, Bishop has scored a touchdown in nine of his last 10 games. He also found the end zone against Alabama twice while rushing for 123 yards.
This time around, he'll go against a Crimson Tide defense that's been stingy against the run. The Tide are seventh in Rushing Success Rate Allowed, but they've still allowed five rushing touchdowns in their last four games.
Bishop's touchdown chances also increase with MacIntyre starting this week. Brandon is second on the team with three rushing touchdowns, but MacIntyre is a traditional pocket passer. Bishop will likely get all the red zone carries this week.
Alabama ML -320
The home team has won the last four meetings, which would favor Tennessee in this matchup. However, I could also make the case the team with the better quarterback play won each of those games.
In 2022, Hendon Hooker outdueled Bryce Young in a 52-49 victory, while it was Jalen Milroe, not Nico Iamaleava, who threw a pair of backbreaking interceptions in the 2024 loss.
This time around, Russell is the better quarterback in this matchup. He's already led the Crimson Tide to road wins over Kentucky and Mississippi State. That's still the only loss for each of those teams.
In addition to Russell getting better every week, so is Alabama's defense. The Crimson Tide are giving up 19 points per game in SEC play. Most notably, they held Georgia to 20 points after the Bulldogs had scored 38 points in each of their first five games.
While I like Bishop to score, shutting down Tennessee's running game may be Alabama's edge in this one.
Under Josh Heupel, Tennessee is 37-2 when it runs for 200 yards or more. Alabama has been a bit inconsistent stopping the run, but it's still allowing 99 rushing yards per game, which ranks 24th in the FBS.
If Alabama can slow down Tennessee's rushing attack, it can make the Volunteers one-dimensional.
That may not be a good thing considering MacIntyre had three turnovers last week.
Under 56.5 (-225)
In recent years, Alabama and Tennessee have played some high-scoring games. However, of the last three meetings, two of them went under, and two of them finished under 57 points.
With growing pains at quarterback and a top-flight defense, Tennessee has been a good team to back for unders this season. The Vols are 5-1 to the under this season and 8-2 over their past 10 games dating back to last season.
People often expect points out of Heupel's offenses, resulting in high totals and placing value on Tennessee's unders. While I do lean towards under 50.5, moving the total back a touchdown gets us a more comfortable number.
Additionally, because this parlay has offensive props with Russell and Bishop, we benefit from the negative correlation to boost the odds as well as on Bishop scoring combined with an Alabama win.
Tennessee vs Alabama Same-Game Parlay
- Keelon Russell 225+ Alt Passing Yards (-158)
- DeSean Bishop Anytime Touchdown (-175)
- Alabama ML (-320)
- Under 56.5 (-225)
Parlay Odds: +593 (FanDuel)
