Texas vs Oklahoma Expert Picks & Predictions | Red River Rivalry Complete Betting Guide
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- The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma Sooners meet in the 2023 edition of the Red River Rivalry in Dallas, Texas, on Saturday.
- The Longhorns enter as moderate favorites of just under a touchdown, but our staff is nearly split on which side to take.
- Read on for our staff's best bets and picks for Saturday's Texas vs. Oklahoma showdown.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Odds
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | +170 |
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-5 -110 | 60.5 -110o / -110u | -205 |
By Dan Keegan
The Texas State Fair is a glorious weekend, a revelry of Americana and football and fried foods. The event is larger than life, and at the centerpiece is one of the best games in college football: the Red River Rivalry.
This game feels massive even when it doesn’t have stakes for the conference title or the playoff chase. When it does? It’s downright earth-shattering.
Both teams are undefeated entering the game for the first time since 2011. Texas is favored, anywhere between five and six depending on the shop. That would be a much closer game than last season’s 49-0 undressing that the Horns administered.
Oklahoma has obviously progressed from last year’s calamity. The defense is vastly improved, and quarterback Dillon Gabriel is fully healthy.
That the Sooners are projected to be this close with a fully-back Texas team is a sign of how far Brent Venables has brought this Oklahoma program in his second season.
Because make no mistake, the Longhorns are back. Steve Sarkisian’s outfit already notched the best win of the season by going to Tuscaloosa and winning a physical matchup against Nick Saban's Crimson Tide.
Texas has trench play on both sides, stars on the perimeter and a dastardly play-caller. The Longhorns know their recipe for a winning football dish — now they look to go out and deep-fry it.
With a game this big, we had to use our whole staff’s expertise to preview it. We polled 17 of our college football experts to find a consensus on the best ways to play the game. It’s a dead heat on the spread, but our team has a clear preference on the total.
Let’s get to the picks.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Spread
Split Decision
We’ll saying that Texas is back (well, maybe not in the intro), but the Longhorns do have the best win in the country, and our staff is giving them a slight edge over Oklahoma in this year’s Red River Rivalry.
The Longhorns arrive at this matchup unscathed, navigating a schedule that has already included games at Alabama and versus a ranked Kansas team in Austin.
While the Texas offense has put up decent raw numbers — it ranks sixth in the Big 12 in rushing and fourth in passing and scoring — it hasn’t graded as well on a Success Rate basis, ranking 74th and 45th in Rush and Pass Success, respectively.
Quarterback Quinn Ewers, however, has shown noticeable improvement from 2022, with his completion percentage, yards per attempt and touchdown-to-interception ratio all trending upward through five games.
Texas has also found its latest budding star at running back, with Jonathon Brooks leading the conference in rushing at a near 7.0 yards-per-carry clip.
But the real reason Texas has been so successful this season and is nearly a touchdown favorite over the Sooners is because of its defense. The Longhorns defense ranks inside the top 25 in both Rush and Pass Success, and it’s sixth nationally in keeping opposing teams from crossing midfield.
Oklahoma’s Dillon Gabriel has put up some impressive numbers on an offense that ranks third in scoring (47.3) and seventh in passing (352.4), but the Sooners haven’t faced anyone close to the quality of this Texas defense.
If the Sooners offense finds success, it will be with the explosive passing plays that the Longhorns are susceptible to giving up. Texas has already allowed 12 passing plays of over 30 yards in length.
But ultimately, Texas’ defense should be able to consistently slow down the Sooners offense enough, and Ewers and the Longhorns offense will find their own share of explosive plays against an Oklahoma defense that has surrendered some home runs against far inferior competition.
This won’t be the 49-0 whopping that was last season’s matchup, but we like the Longhorns to win this by at least a touchdown in the Big 12’s final iteration of this rivalry.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Over/Under
Over 60.5 | 4 Picks |
Pass | 4 Picks |
Under 60.5 | 9 Picks |
Under 61
When you hear the phrase “Red River Rivalry,” the first thing that likely comes to mind is a fast-paced, high-scoring affair. In fact, two of the last three games had over 90 points scored.
But in the words of Jake Dickert’s mortal enemy, “Not so fast.”
Oklahoma has made it to October undefeated, putting up some gaudy passing numbers with quarterback Dillon Gabriel. But a weak resume draws into question how effective the Sooners offense will be against the best defense it has faced to date.
Gabriel ranks eighth in the country with 318.6 yards per game, but four of the five defenses he’s faced this year rank outside the top 50 in pass defense. The only team he’s faced inside the top 50 was SMU, which held Gabriel to a season-low 176 yards passing.
The Sooners have also been one-dimensional.
Oklahoma ranks only 51st in Rush Success and 100th in Line Yards. This spells trouble against a Longhorns defense that's seventh and 21st in those respective categories, which will force the burden on Gabriel to single-handedly move the ball in the highest-profile game of his Oklahoma career.
Then there’s the Texas offense.
From a numbers standpoint, the Longhorns offense appears to be just fine, but when you take a closer look at some of the advanced metrics, they’ve been anything but a well-oiled machine.
The Texas offense ranks outside the top 40 in Run and Pass Success, Line Yards and Finishing Drives.
Quinn Ewers has shown steady improvement in his second season as the Longhorns' starter, but there’s a notable dropoff when he faces pressure. The Texas quarterback completes just 50% of his passes under pressure, per PFF, down from his season average of nearly 73%.
Keeping Ewers clean will be essential, because, like the Sooners, Texas has also struggled to find a consistent run game. Jonathon Brooks has 597 yards on the season, but an outlier, 218-yard performance against Kansas last week inflates his numbers.
The Longhorns have otherwise struggled to find any other back behind Brooks who can contribute to the offense.
Recent history would tell you this total is way too low, but Texas has one of the stronger defenses in the country, and it will place a ton of pressure solely on Gabriel’s shoulders. A one-dimensional Oklahoma offense has not had a real test yet this season, and the Longhorns offense, in its own right, has been inconsistent throughout the year.
It’ll probably make you sweat, but our staff likes the under in this one.
More Ways to Bet Texas vs. Oklahoma
By Doug Ziefel
The Oklahoma Sooners are a very live dog in this year's rendition of the Red River Rivalry. However, if they're going to stay in this game, they'll need to lean on the arm of quarterback Dillon Gabriel.
Texas will likely shut down the Sooners' rushing attack, as the Longhorns rank 15th in Line Yards compared to Oklahoma's mark of 100th.
When Oklahoma fails to get a push-up front in the ground game, we should see Gabriel's attempts go up, and it will lead to more passes in the red zone.
Gabriel will have the opportunity to have success through the air, as the Longhorns' secondary may be a tad overrated. Yes, Texas ranks 21st in Passing Success Rate, but it's 63rd in PFF's coverage rating.
On top of that game script and the matchup, Gabriel has proven this total is far too low for him during his time at Oklahoma. He has gone over this total in 73.5% of his games played at OU, which gives us a significant edge in line value, with our implied odds sitting at -277.
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