The Texas Longhorns (3-2, 0-1 SEC) take on the No. 6 Oklahoma Sooners (5-0, 1-0 SEC) in the 2025 Red River Rivalry on Saturday, Oct. 11, at 3:30 p.m. ET on ABC.
Texas is coming off its second loss of the season, a 29-21 defeat at the hands of Florida, while Oklahoma dominated Kent State, 44-0, last week but has questions surrounding the status of quarterback John Mateer.
So, who holds the advantage in this one? Let's take a look at our Texas vs. Oklahoma picks and college football predictions for another edition of the Red River Rivalry on Saturday, Oct. 11.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Picks, Predictions
By Pete Ruden
College football wouldn't be the same without the Red River Rivalry.
Texas leads the all-time series, 64-51-5, but that doesn't tell the full story of this historic rivalry. The Longhorns have won two of the last three, including last season, but the Sooners emerged victorious in three straight from 2019-21.
Through it all, we've seen plenty of tight finishes.
In 2017, eventual Heisman Trophy winner Baker Mayfield helped the Sooners jump out to a 20-0 lead before Texas fought back to take a lead into the fourth quarter. But Mayfield found tight end Mark Andrews streaking down the sideline to give OU a lead it never relinquished.
Of course, Texas has had its moments, too.
One year later, with the game tied at 45-45, the Longhorns won on a 40-yard field goal from kicker Cameron Dicker in the final seconds.
Will we have another instant classic this time around? With the spread sitting right around one point, it's certainly possible.
Our college football writers answered the question as to who they think will cover and whether this game will go over or under the total. Let's dive in.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Spread Pick
Our Spread Pick: Oklahoma -1
Our staff is all in on Oklahoma.
Why wouldn’t we be? Have you seen Arch Manning play? He’s been horrendous and hasn’t improved, committing a whopping five Turnover-Worthy Plays against Florida while completing just 16 of his 30 passing attempts.
With Manning at the helm, Texas ranks 109th nationally in EPA per Pass and Passing Success Rate.
The Longhorns boast a decent ground attack, but only because Manning has picked up over 200 yards with five scores at 0.51 EPA per attempt.
Aside from Manning, Jerrick Gibson, CJ Baxter and Quintrevion Wisner have combined to average 4.3 yards per carry with a -5.2 EPA.
The worst part about the Texas offense? The ‘Horns are dreadful at executing where it matters most. Texas ranks 110th nationally in Finishing Drives (3.2 points per opportunity) and 100th in red-zone scoring percentage (77%).
And we expect Manning and the Longhorns to do anything against the Oklahoma defense? The Sooners lead the nation in Success Rate allowed (23%) and EPA per Play allowed (-0.34).
They also rank in the top 10 in Finishing Drives allowed (1.5 PPO allowed) and in the top five in Defensive Line Yards (and will be facing a Texas front five that ranks 47th in Offensive Line Yards).
I’m a little worried about Oklahoma’s offense, which hasn’t looked elite. Not to mention, we don’t have much information regarding the status of quarterback John Mateer.
However, I’m arguably as worried, if not more worried, about the Longhorns defense.
Florida averaged nearly 7.3 yards per play last week. A week after throwing for 61 yards on 23 attempts against Miami — and two weeks after throwing five picks against LSU — Texas allowed DJ Lagway to dice it up to the tune of 21-for-28 passing for almost 300 yards at nearly 11 yards per attempt.
Ultimately, we trust Oklahoma’s defense to dominate while Mateer does just enough — perhaps with his legs instead of his arm — to earn a road win and cover in the Red River Rivalry.
Texas vs. Oklahoma Over/Under Pick
Over 44 | 6 Picks |
Pass | 0 Picks |
Under 44 | 2 Picks |
Our Over/Under Pick: Over 44
By Pete Ruden
Like the spread, our staff has a clear consensus on the total in this game. We like the over and think the total is simply too low.
Neither offense has been breathtaking, but like Tanner mentioned above, this really starts with the Texas defense.
The Longhorns rank 29th in Passing Success Rate allowed and 22nd in Rushing Success Rate allowed — far below where a College Football Playoff contender should be.
They let Florida quarterback DJ Lagway post his best game of the season, as he threw for 298 yards, two touchdowns and one interception on 21-of-28 passing. That came after back-to-back games in which he threw for 61 yards against Miami and tossed five picks against LSU.
This unit hasn't been overly impressive despite playing UTEP and San Jose State early in the season.
On the other side, Oklahoma's stop unit has been stout in Success Rate and Finishing Drives allowed, but there's one key area that falls short: explosiveness.
The Sooners rank 111th nationally in explosiveness allowed, so all it will take is a couple of big plays from Texas. Even though the Longhorns haven't met expectations, that's certainly doable considering the talent on that offense.
Given the low number and the key weaknesses on both sides, we'll take the over here. Points!
Texas vs. Oklahoma Odds
| Texas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1 -105 | 44 -110o / -110u | -285 |
| Oklahoma Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1 -115 | 44 -110o / -110u | +230 |
- Texas vs. Oklahoma Spread: Texas +1, Oklahoma -1
- Texas vs. Oklahoma Over/Under: 44
- Texas vs. Oklahoma Moneyline: Texas ML -105, Oklahoma ML -115
