College Football Odds & Picks for Toledo vs. Bowling Green: Betting Value on Wednesday’s Over/Under (Nov. 10)

College Football Odds & Picks for Toledo vs. Bowling Green: Betting Value on Wednesday’s Over/Under (Nov. 10) article feature image
Credit:

David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Matt McDonald.

  • Toledo faces Bowling Green in what should be an intriguing battle in the MAC.
  • Toledo has underperformed this season, while Bowling Green has overperformed, but the Rockets still enter as double-digit favorites.
  • Stuckey dishes out his best bet for the game below.

Toledo vs. Bowling Green Odds

Wednesday, Nov. 10
7 p.m. ET
CBS Sports Network
Toledo Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
-11
-110
50
-110o / -110u
-400
Bowling Green Odds
Spread Total Moneyline
+11
-110
50
-110o / -110u
+325
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute college football odds here.

Midweek MACtion rolls along Wednesday night with two teams still fighting for bowl eligibility.

While unlikely for the 3-6 Bowling Green Falcons, it’s been a successful season for a team many didn’t think would three games in the first place.

The opposite is true for the Toledo Rockets, who should reach bowl eligibility but had much bigger aspirations this year that it looks like will likely not come to fruition.

Yes, it’s a battle of a pair of teams tied for last place in their respective divisions, but that doesn’t mean there isn’t betting value in this Wednesday night showdown. Let’s take a closer look.


Toledo Rockets

In my eyes, the Rockets have been the most disappointing team in the MAC through the first 10 weeks of the season.

Toledo came into the season as the favorites to win the conference with a season win total at nine. There were many things to love about a roster that boasted more returning production than any team in the nation.

I don’t think many — including myself — expected a 4-5 start and a potential battle to get to bowl eligibility.

The latest loss came against EMU in a game where its defense — and especially special teams — really let it down. There have also been a pair of home losses as two-touchdown favorites (Colorado State, NIU) in addition to two coin-flip losses on the road (Notre Dame, CMU) by a field goal.

Yes, Toledo did indeed have Notre Dame on the ropes in South Bend. This is a talented roster that just hasn’t lived up to expectations on a week-to-week basis. Things look great when they are on (as they did in four easy victories) but ugly when they are not.

The problems for Toledo have primarily come on the offensive end (and special teams). The offensive line has performed extremely poorly, particularly in pass protection (123rd in Sack Rate), which was not expected for a unit that returned everybody from last season.

Carter Bradley also wasn’t getting it done at quarterback — in part due to the lackluster offensive line play — so Toledo made a recent switch by naming dual-threat Dequan Finn the starter.

Finn’s struggled a bit in the passing department, but his mobility is invaluable given the struggles in pass protection. The Rockets now have a very explosive rushing attack that is not easy to defend.

Despite an uncharacteristic poor effort last week, Toledo boasts the best defense in the MAC by a wide margin. The Rockets basically brought back their entire two-deep from last year and added Penn State transfer Judge Culpepper to provide some much-needed beef to the interior of the defensive line.

With star safety Tycen Anderson now fully recovered from injury, this defense really has no weaknesses. It ranks in the top 30 nationally in the following categories:

  • Line Yards
  • Opportunity Rate
  • Passing Downs Sack Rate
  • Pass Efficiency Defense

This is a top-40 defense in the country, and the Rockets go as this unit goes — as long as the special teams and offense don’t make too many mistakes.

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Bowling Green Falcons

Bowling Green pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the season with a shocking road win at Minnesota as over four-touchdown underdogs. It also got blown out by Akron. It’s been a bizarre season for the Falcons, to say the least, but there appears to be progress for this extremely young roster.

The offense remains a bit of a mess, as there’s a lack of talent at wide receiver and the offensive line has struggled mightily. Matt McDonald has at least looked like he can throw a forward pass this year after offseason surgery, but this is still a bottom-10 offense in FBS.

However, the special teams and defense have been a pleasant surprise. The special teams actually rank in the top 50 nationally, per SP+, which is extremely good for a MAC team (MAC teams generally don’t have as much depth as many Power Five teams and it shows on special teams).

The defense isn’t a world-beater by any stretch, but defensive coordinator Eric Lewis has done a tremendous job after the departure of Brian VanGorder, who I was never a fan of.

The interior remains very undersized and vulnerable against the run, but it’s an aggressive scheme that utilizes various blitz and pressure packages that have successfully generated pressure all season. The additions via the transfer portal in the secondary have also panned out.


Toledo vs. Bowling Green Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how Toledo and Bowling Green match up statistically:

Toledo Offense vs. Bowling Green Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 60 120
Line Yards 73 121
Pass Success 109 12
Pass Blocking** 120 50
Big Play 87 7
Havoc 90 89
Finishing Drives 100 96
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Bowling Green Offense vs. Toledo Defense
Offense
Defense
Edge
Rush Success 93 10
Line Yards 124 36
Pass Success 90 47
Pass Blocking** 121 19
Big Play 97 24
Havoc 105 32
Finishing Drives 66 8
** Pass Blocking (Off.) vs. Pass Rush (Def.)

Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling 2 40
Coverage 12 78
Middle 8 42 115
SP+ Special Teams 96 40
Plays per Minute 80 87
Rush Rate 53.8% (73) 44.4% (122)

Data via College Football Data, FootballOutsiders, SP+, PFF and SportSource Analytics.


Toledo vs. Bowling Green Betting Pick

I like the under here.

I expect a bounce-back performance from the Toledo defense after getting embarrassed for the first time all season against Eastern Michigan.

This is a prideful and veteran group that should show up here with maximum focus. And as long as that’s the case, I don’t see how the Bowling Green offense can do much here.

On the other side of the ball, the Bowling Green defense can create enough negative plays to stop enough Toledo drives to keep this under the total.

The Rockets should move the ball methodically on the ground all night, but that will also keep the clock moving in a matchup between two teams that don’t play particularly fast.

If I had to play a side, it’s Toledo or nothing.

Pick: Under 51 (Play to 50)

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