For the first time in the 2025 college football season, we have a trio of Tuesday games.
It all starts when the New Mexico State Aggies head east to take on the Liberty Flames in a Conference USA clash. Then, we'll move to the Sun Belt, where the Arkansas State Red Wolves meet the South Alabama Jaguars in Mobile, Alabama. To close things out, we'll see another CUSA battle between the FIU Panthers and Western Kentucky Hilltoppers.
Our college football writers came through with Tuesday college football picks and NCAAF predictions for all three games, so let's strap in — and be sure to check back tomorrow for our Wednesday night college football betting coverage.
Tuesday College Football Picks
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 7 p.m. | |
  | 7:30 p.m. | |
  | 8 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NCAAF Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
New Mexico State vs Liberty Pick
By Road To CFB
The New Mexico State Aggies take on the Liberty Flames in Lynchburg, Virginia, on Tuesday, Oct. 14. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Liberty is favored by 10.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -400. New Mexico State, meanwhile, enters as a +10.5 underdog and is +325 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 46.5 points.
Here’s my New Mexico State vs. Liberty prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, October 14.
New Mexico State Aggies
The 2025 New Mexico State Aggies field a historic run game, but it's historic in the wrong way.
Despite playing a cast of opponents that rank no higher than 95th nationally in the FBS, New Mexico State has yet to rush for 100 combined yards in a single game.
This absence of a run game bottomed out when it was outgained, 352-27, by Louisiana Tech and, 132-15, by New Mexico, resulting in a combined 87-34 score.
Losing starting center Kai Wheeler in Week 3 hasn’t helped much, though the rushing results have more or less remained the same since then. It’s truly a historically bad rushing attack.
The rest of the offensive line isn’t just subpar, it’s flat-out bad. Winning without a reliable offensive line is a tall task.
But able to run the ball or not, the Aggies carry a 3-2 record with victories over FCS Bryant, Tulsa (125th in FBS, per aggregate industry power ratings) and Sam Houston (130th).
If the level of intensity picks up at any point, NMSU could feasibly be in bowl contention come November.
An opportunistic defense has forced plenty of turnovers and held opponents to 14 or fewer points in all three wins. The Aggies rank 71st in points per drive, a marked improvement from last year (115th) and above much of Conference USA.
This comes without star linebacker Tyler Martinez, who missed the Sam Houston contest after leaving the New Mexico game with an injury. His status for Week 8 is up in the air.
Futures markets don’t seem to buy that NMSU is a real Conference USA contender, lining it as long as +6000 after Week 7 to win the title. It’s a reasonable assessment. It has a league loss to Louisiana Tech, and upcoming games with Western Kentucky and surprise candidate Kennesaw State are likely projected as two more.
Liberty Flames
Liberty certainly makes the short list of 2025 Disappointments.
At 2-4 with a conference loss to Jacksonville State, the preseason favorite Flames now eye odds at +800 and longer to win the CUSA crown.
Upcoming matchups with Delaware and Louisiana Tech prove to be huge pivots, should Liberty find a way to grab a pair of wins there.
Quarterback Ethan Vasko returned to the lineup for a 19-8 win at UTEP in Week 7. Vasko passed for 243 yards and ran in a touchdown, and Liberty remained turnover-free in the win.
But with or without Vasko, the offense has some significant problems.
Its high-water mark against an FBS opponent is 24 points, earned in a 34-24 loss to Jacksonville State earlier this season. An inconsistent rushing attack is the root of the problem, and it's a serious one in head coach Jamey Chadwell’s run-centric offense.
Standout running back Evan Dickens suffered a concussion in Week 5 and has not played since.
In his absence, two different running backs led the Flames in attempts and yards. Redshirt freshman Caden Williams went for 92 yards against Old Dominion, and sophomore Vaughn Blue ran for 75 yards against UTEP, which proved to be more of a bug than a feature of the offense.
The defense isn’t up to standard, either, after being heralded as one of the Group of Five’s best this offseason.
Teams with a pulse on the ground have moved the ball well against the Flames’ defensive front, and that has killed the clock. The additional turnovers lead to more clock being run, and Liberty’s offense sits 116th in points per drive.
With the Flames' truly awful offense, the defense has to do more lifting than most are capable of to propel this team to a 4-1 finish and bowl eligibility this season.
New Mexico State vs Liberty Prediction
Liberty opened as a -7.5 favorite at home against New Mexico State, a number that quickly grew to -10.5. The point total, meanwhile, dipped from 48.5 to 46.5 points.
New Mexico State, though on the road, has six more days of rest than Liberty after sitting Week 7 out; its last game came on Thursday, Oct. 2, in a 37-10 win over Sam Houston.
While a rest advantage certainly helps, we’re approaching nearly two full weeks off and rest-versus-rust territory.
At NMSU, head coach Tony Sanchez is 0-3 outright and 1-8 in his coaching career coming off a bye week. While it’s true some of those byes came against bigger opponents and on the road — earlier this year, the bye preceded its rivalry with New Mexico, and last year, before a game at 9-5 Jacksonville State — Sanchez’s bye week woes shouldn’t be overlooked.
Liberty’s defense struggles against sturdy run games, which is something New Mexico State seriously lacks.
A combination of that bad run game and scheme has forced offensive coordinator David Yost’s hand to throw on 60% of offensive plays, the ninth-highest rate in the FBS.
The issue? That plays right into Liberty’s hand. The Flames rank 28th in Passing Success Rate allowed but 118th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
So, does NMSU try its hand at improving its historically bad run game against an atrocious run defense?
Perhaps. And if it does, that’s going to lead to some ugly drives.
Even though the total dipped a couple of points, it hasn’t gone low enough. Against a competent defense, NMSU managed 14 points. Liberty’s lack of an offense has led to 23-13, 19-8 and 21-7 rock fights in recent weeks.
Both offenses excel where the opposing defense does, too, so this could be some really ugly midweek CUSA action.
Pick: Under 46.5
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Arkansas State vs South Alabama Pick
By Joshua Nunn
The Arkansas State Red Wolves take on the South Alabama Jaguars in Mobile, Ala. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
South Alabama is favored by 7.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -290. Arkansas State, meanwhile, enters as a +7/5 underdog and is +230 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 59 points.
Here’s my Arkansas State vs. South Alabama prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, October 14.
Arkansas State Red Wolves
Arkansas State comes in after stealing a victory from the jaws of defeat last Saturday against Texas State.
The Red Wolves were very fortunate to score late against the heavily-favored Bobcats to snap a four-game losing streak.
However, I'm still not convinced Arkansas State is any good this season, and the defense continues to be a significant liability.
This Arkansas State defense is allowing 5.8 yards per carry and 7.2 yards per play this season. The Red Wolves struggle to get stops on third down and grade out as the worst pass coverage unit in the Sun Belt.
This defense is allowing 500 yards per game against FBS competition, and now it hits the road to face a desperate South Alabama team.
Offensively, the Red Wolves have struggled to sustain drives and put up points. Prior to last week, this offense was putting up just 16.8 points per game against FBS competition, and the offensive line has been the main culprit.
This bunch can't protect the quarterback or prevent negative plays, as the team's rushing average comes in at just 3.45 yards per carry.
South Alabama Jaguars
South Alabama has to be frustrated with how its season has gone thus far, as the Jaguars are 1-5 in a season filled with "what-ifs.”
They played Tulane close in Week 2 and competed well against Auburn on the road. They also had a 31-point second-half meltdown against Coastal Carolina, where three turnovers directly led to CCU touchdown drives.
This season has certainly gone sideways for the Jaguars. If this bunch wants to rally the troops and make a late-season push for bowl eligibility, the time is now.
Offensively, the ground game has really come to life for the Jaguars. In each of the last three weeks, South Alabama has run for more than 200 yards. While this team isn't overly explosive, the ground attack has been consistent.
Running back Kentrel Bullock should feast against Arkansas State at home, and I expect quarterback Bishop Davenport to run the play-action game off the run and take deep shots downfield.
Defensively, the Jags have underwhelmed this season, mainly due to a lack of pass rush and consistently missing tackles. South Alabama has just seven sacks this season.
The missed tackles have been problematic and have led to too many scoring drives. This defense has been unreliable, causing this team to fall behind in the standings.
Arkansas State vs South Alabama Prediction
This is a big revenge spot for South Alabama to avenge last year's 18-16 final score, and I think its defense can lock in for this one. I'm going to take Arkansas State's team total under 26.5 in this matchup.
Arkansas State’s offense is led by quarterback Jaylen Raynor, who has completed 67% of his throws this season.
However, the explosiveness hasn't been there for the Red Wolves this season. Raynor hasn't thrown for 300 yards in a game against an FBS opponent this season, and this team has been way too inconsistent both on third down and in the red zone.
South Alabama grades out as the fourth-best secondary unit in the Sun Belt, per PFF. It's allowing just 169 yards per game through the air this season, with just seven passing touchdowns given up.
The Jags also come in ranked 17th nationally in Passing EPA allowed and 44th in preventing pass explosives.
Arkansas State has been balanced offensively this season, and while the ground game hasn't held up its end of the deal, it should have success against a South Alabama run defense that's allowing over five yards per carry this season and ranks just 105th in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
The Red Wolves have been wildly inefficient offensively, seeing numerous drives stall in the red zone. Their recent contests have trended under, including last week against Texas State. In that game, the Red Wolves had 10 points through three quarters before exploding for 21 in the final frame.
South Alabama is a desperate team and should be fully locked in to get some momentum as it tries to salvage its season.
I expect the Jags to lean on their rushing attack and salt the second half away against an Arkansas State run defense that ranks 118th nationally in Rushing Success Rate allowed.
Look for Davenport, the South Alabama QB, to extend drives with his legs and keep that Jaguar offense on the field in key moments.
South Alabama picks up the win at home, as Arkansas State fails to surpass its posted team total in this Tuesday night tussle.
Pick: Arkansas State Team Total Under 26.5 (Play to 24.5)
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FIU vs Western Kentucky Pick
By Joshua Nunn
The Florida International Panthers take on the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers in Bowling Green, Kentucky, on Tuesday, Oct. 14. Kickoff is set for 8 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Western Kentucky is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -350. FIU, meanwhile, comes in as a +9.5 underdog and sits at +280 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 56 points.
Here’s my FIU vs. Western Kentucky prediction and college football picks for Tuesday, October 14.
FIU Panthers
Florida International has been stuck in a rut the last several weeks, having not won a game since defeating FAU in the Shula Bowl in mid-September.
The offensive execution has been to blame, as seven turnovers and poor red-zone play have put the Panthers up against it in losses against Delaware and UConn.
FIU quarterback Keyone Jenkins has been turnover-prone with five interceptions over the last two weeks.
Jenkins has also been tasked with doing more himself due to the Panthers' sputtering run game. FIU has to get back to running the football more effectively and lean on Kejon Owens to set this offense up for favorable downs and distances.
Defensively, the Panthers have really struggled in their last two against two really good offensive teams. Turnovers put the FIU defense in bad spots against UConn, and the stop unit gave up way too many explosive plays.
The pass defense against UConn struggled with multiple starters out due to injury. The secondary is the strength of this defense, and both Brian Blades II and Shamir Sterlin are listed in the starting defense on this week’s depth chart.
We should see a little more formidable pass defense on Tuesday night.
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers
Western Kentucky had its high-flying offense humming the first couple of weeks of the season, but it has since stalled out in recent weeks.
This is surprising given the level of competition faced, but we've seen the passing numbers drop significantly.
During the first three weeks of the season, quarterback Maverick McIvor threw for 358 yards per game with 11 passing touchdowns. The last three? He has 254 yards per game with two total passing touchdowns.
Wide receiver Matthew Henry is starting to get more involved in the pass game, but the explosive plays haven’t been there, nor has the production from the supporting cast.
That has caused WKU to rely more on the rushing attack, as the Toppers have run the ball 56% of the time the last three weeks. This will be a fascinating matchup between the Western Kentucky receiving corps and FIU's secondary.
Defensively, WKU has been impressive in limiting the production of its last three opponents. However, the glaring weakness continues to be defending the run.
The Tops are giving up nearly 196 yards per game and 5.4 yards per rush this season while ranking 123rd nationally in Rush Explosiveness allowed.
FIU can run it here and should have success sustaining drives on the ground.
FIU vs Western Kentucky Prediction
We saw major steam early in the week on WKU. This line opened -7 and has been bet up to -10. I'm grabbing the underdog in this weekday conference matchup.
FIU has been disappointing, but its defense was decimated by injuries in the secondary and at linebacker. Many of those frequently found on the injured list have come off and are scheduled to play Tuesday night.
The Panthers' secondary can be very stout when healthy.
Blades is a guy who can shut down opposing receivers, and FIU has a pass rush that can put some pressure on McIvor and make him uncomfortable in the pocket.
When FIU has the ball, it should look to get the run game going with Owens against a WKU defensive front that has given up a ton of explosive plays and ranks just 103rd nationally in Defensive EPA Per Play.
Jenkins hasn’t used his legs much this season, but he should be able to break down this defense and pick up key first downs on the ground.
Jenkins and starting center Julius Pierce both left the UConn game early with injury, but are both a full go and should really help the offensive production.
Western Kentucky grades out as the second-worst tackling team in CUSA. Owens has forced 23 missed tackles, and half of his rushing production comes after first contact.
I think FIU will be able to possess the ball, keep the WKU offense on the sidelines, and keep this game tight into the late stages. This Panthers' secondary will limit the Tops' passing attack, and this game will be close late — just like the last three WKU games have been.
Grab those points.
Pick: FIU +10
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