The UMass Minutemen take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, MO. Kickoff is set for 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU.
Missouri is favored by -44.5 points on the spread, and the total is set at 56.5 points.
Here’s my UMass vs. Missouri predictions and college football picks for Saturday, September 27, 2025.
UMass vs Missouri Prediction
- UMass vs. Missouri Pick: Over 56.5
My Missouri vs. UMass best bet is on the over. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
UMass vs Missouri Odds
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+44.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-44.5 -110 | 56.5 -110o / -110u | N/A |
- UMass vs Missouri point spread: Missouri -44.5
- UMass vs Missouri over/under: 56.5 points
UMass vs Missouri Pick, Betting Analysis
Last week, Missouri kicked off SEC play with a victory over formerly top-10-ranked South Carolina, 29-20.
Now the Tigers have a tune-up game and a bye week before diving deep into the rigors of the SEC (Alabama, at Auburn, at Vanderbilt and Texas A&M in October).
Will the Tigers put their foot on the gas against an 0-3 UMass team? Well, the best advice in this spot comes from Evan Abrams' "Unfamiliar Blowout Overs" system, which spotlights over 56.5 as the play.
This system has a strong 11-6 record this season, including a 23% return on investment (ROI). It also has a 16.4% ROI since its inception in 2005.
"Unfamiliar Blowout Overs" is a college football system that identifies high scoring potential in non-conference games where mismatches often lead to inflated point totals.
During the regular season, when the home team is heavily favored by more than 30 points, the talent gap is wide enough that scoring can come quickly and often.
Non-conference opponents are less familiar with each other’s schemes, which reduces defensive preparation and increases the likelihood of big plays.
By focusing on games where the closing total is below 60, the system finds situations where expectations are modest despite the conditions favoring offense.
In these contests, the stronger team can pile on points while the underdog often contributes through late scoring in garbage time, pushing results over the total more often than anticipated.
Pick: Over 56.5
