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College Football Bowl Game Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Final 2023 Bowl Predictions

College Football Bowl Game Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Final 2023 Bowl Predictions article feature image
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Isaiah Vazquez/Getty Images. Pictured: The Florida State Seminoles.

  • Today marks college football's version of "Selection Sunday" when all of the bowl games get announced.
  • After this week's conference championship upsets, Action Network's Brett McMurphy listed his final bowl projections.
  • Check out McMurphy's final bowl projections for the 2023 college football season below.

Less than two days ago, I had a fairly good read on the destinations for the majority of bowl teams.

And then Saturday happened.

No. 8 Alabama beats No. 1 Georgia; No. 4 Florida State, down to a third-string quarterback, beats Louisville but looks like Iowa (great defense, limited offense); SMU upsets No. 22 Tulane; and Miami (OH) upsets Toledo.

That might not sound like much, but of the 41 bowls, those results — and the resulting dominoes — impacted about 15-20 bowl matchups.

The biggest question is Florida State. I’ve flipped more times than (use your own bad analogy) on the Seminoles' playoff chances. Are they in? Are they out?

It’s this simple, but it’s not this simple: Will the committee leave out a 13-0 Power 5 champion that is clearly not one of the best four teams without QB Jordan Travis; or will it put FSU in and then have a Sophie’s Choice-like decision of Texas or Alabama?

Could it — would it? — really leave out the SEC champion?

So, what is it? If FSU is out, Texas and Alabama are in. If FSU is in, the committee must decide between Texas (with the head-to-head win at Alabama) or the Crimson Tide.

Here are the "To Make the Playoff" odds heading into Sunday:

Odds to Make CFPOdds to Miss CFP
Florida State-400+300
Texas-400+300
Alabama+128-158
Georgia+1600-6000

With a confidence level of about 7.2 (on a scale of 10), here are my latest projections (and I’ll update again Sunday morning), which are probably different than what I tweeted out earlier Saturday night. So, if you’re confused, you’re not alone.

Here are my latest projections and the projected point spread of each matchup from Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings.

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CFP National Championship Prediction

National Championship
Jan. 8
Houston, TX
Texas
Michigan
-2

College Football Playoff Semifinals Projections


New Year's Six Bowl Games


Projections for All Other Bowl Games


*The highest-rated champion from the Group of Five conferences (American, Conference USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt) will be selected to play in either the Peach or Fiesta Bowl if it does not qualify for the College Football Playoff.

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