College Football Bowl Game Projections: Brett McMurphy’s Final 2023 Bowl Predictions

Less than two days ago, I had a fairly good read on the destinations for the majority of bowl teams.

And then Saturday happened.

No. 8 Alabama beats No. 1 Georgia; No. 4 Florida State, down to a third-string quarterback, beats Louisville but looks like Iowa (great defense, limited offense); SMU upsets No. 22 Tulane; and Miami (OH) upsets Toledo.

That might not sound like much, but of the 41 bowls, those results — and the resulting dominoes — impacted about 15-20 bowl matchups.

The biggest question is Florida State. I’ve flipped more times than (use your own bad analogy) on the Seminoles' playoff chances. Are they in? Are they out?

It’s this simple, but it’s not this simple: Will the committee leave out a 13-0 Power 5 champion that is clearly not one of the best four teams without QB Jordan Travis; or will it put FSU in and then have a Sophie’s Choice-like decision of Texas or Alabama?

Could it — would it? — really leave out the SEC champion?

So, what is it? If FSU is out, Texas and Alabama are in. If FSU is in, the committee must decide between Texas (with the head-to-head win at Alabama) or the Crimson Tide.

Here are the "To Make the Playoff" odds heading into Sunday:

With a confidence level of about 7.2 (on a scale of 10), here are my latest projections (and I’ll update again Sunday morning), which are probably different than what I tweeted out earlier Saturday night. So, if you’re confused, you’re not alone.

Here are my latest projections and the projected point spread of each matchup from Action Network senior writer Collin Wilson’s betting power ratings.

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