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The Jacksonville State Gamecocks (3-2, 1-0 CUSA) take on the Kennesaw State Owls (1-3, 0-0) at Fifth Third Stadium in Kennesaw, Georgia, on Wednesday, Oct. 7. Kickoff is set for 7 p.m. ET on CBS Sports Network.
Jacksonville State is favored by -3 points on the spread with a moneyline of -148. Kennesaw State, meanwhile, enters as a +3 underdog and is +124 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under sits at 49.5 total points.
Here’s my Jacksonville State vs. Kennesaw State prediction and college football pick for Wednesday, October 7.
Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Prediction
- Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Pick: Kennesaw State +3 or Better
My Kennesaw State vs. Jacksonville State best bet is on the Owls to cover as home underdogs. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
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Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Odds
| Jax State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -105 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | -148 |
| Kennesaw St Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -115 | 49.5 -110o / -110u | +124 |
- Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Spread: Jacksonville State -3 (-105), Kennesaw State +3 (-115)
- Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Over/Under: 49.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Moneyline: Jacksonville State -148, Kennesaw State +124
Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State College Football Preview
Jacksonville State Gamecocks Betting Preview: Depending on Quarterback
One of my biggest concerns when Jacksonville State lost running back Cam Cook to the transfer portal was that quarterback Caden Creel would shoulder too much of the offensive load.
That has been exactly the case. Through five games, Creel has 49 more rushing attempts than the next back (not including sacks!) and accounts for almost 47% of the Gamecock's rushing attempts.
Creel already accounts for seven turnovers — four interceptions and three fumbles.
As a result, you get an inconsistent offense with a pretty clear ceiling. The attack hasn’t accounted for more than 24 points in regulation against FBS competition (its 31-27 win over Georgia Southern came via a punt return touchdown).
Backs Lucas Farrington (6.7 yards per attempt) and Jalen Likely (5.6) have been excellent in small doses. It’s clear Charles Kelly’s system works, but the Gamecocks rely too much on Creel.
On defense, Brian Williams employs a bend-don’t-break approach that has held 4-of-5 opponents under 28 points. However, the defense ranks 92nd in Success Rate allowed and 82nd in Points Per Drive allowed.
This is a rotation-heavy unit but lacks the strength in the two-deep to successfully employ that strategy — at least against better competition.
Fortunately for Jax State, opposing offensive talent has been scant. The Gamecocks faced North Dakota State, FCS Eastern Kentucky, Ohio (without its starting QB), Georgia Southern and Middle Tennessee.
The cracks are there for a fast-tempo offense to take advantage. But luckily for the Gamecocks, there aren’t many great offenses left on the schedule.
Kennesaw State Owls Betting Preview: Too Predictable on Offense
Since losing breakout star quarterback Amari Odom to Syracuse, Kennesaw State’s offense has been a mess.
Rickie Collins was way out of his depth as a power conference quarterback, and while he’s been markedly better at Kennesaw State, that hasn’t translated to a lick of offensive success.
Since taking down FCS West Georgia, 47-0, Kennesaw has averaged 13.3 points per game.
The Tennessee game went predictably for the offense (9 points) and Georgia State was far better than expected (17 points), but Collins was held to just 129 passing yards on 17 attempts against Arkansas State, the 102nd-ranked defense in Points Per Drive.
There aren't any threats in the passing game, a product of both Collins’ limited shots downfield (10 attempts of 20-plus yards) and the scheme.
Receiver Zion Booker leads the team in targets, but those targets come at an average of 2.5 yards past the line of scrimmage; Javon Rogers leads in yards, but his average depth of target comes 19 yards downfield.
It’s too predictable what offensive coordinator Mitch Militello wants to do and whom he wants to target.
The other side of the ball — which was often the unsung hero of Kennesaw State’s 10-win season last year — doesn’t do anything well enough to thrive.
The defense ranks 123rd in Points Per Drive allowed, bottom-five in non-explosive EPA (in other words, what can teams do on the “average” play?) and last in Havoc rate (turnovers, sacks and tackles for loss).
This unit was completely gutted last season, and that’s very apparent through five games in 2026.
Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Pick, Betting Analysis
Jacksonville State opened as a -2.5 favorite on the road, a number that was bet up to -4 before Kennesaw State received respected movement. It’s likely this number stays at or around -3 (some books still offer -2.5 at a juiced number).
Also sitting around a key number is the total, which straddled either side of 51 points for most of the life of this line.
On Tuesday, respected money came in on both Kennesaw State and under 50.5.
Jacksonville State is a much different team on the road than at home, and that’s not a new phenomenon in 2026.
Conversely, Kennesaw State has played much better at home, posting a 9-2 ATS mark since 2024 (1-1 this year). Note that Jacksonville, Alabama, is just 90 minutes away from Kennesaw, Georgia.
Expect both teams to lean on the ground game and utilize the quarterback run. The weakness of the Gamecock defense comes on the ground, a place where the Owls are talented. In fact, four Kennesaw players have 100-plus rushing yards.
Asking Creel, who has continued his mistake-prone tendencies this year, to carry the load on the road is a proposition I’m not ready to make.
With a number trending further and further down, I’m inclined to take the points with the home underdog in conference play.
Pick: Kennesaw State +3 or Better
Jacksonville State vs Kennesaw State Betting Trends
