UTEP vs Arizona Odds & Picks: Value on Late-Night Over/Under

UTEP vs Arizona Odds & Picks: Value on Late-Night Over/Under article feature image

Justin Ford/Getty Images. Pictured: Arizona’s Tetairoa McMillan (4) and Jacob Cowing (2).

UTEP vs Arizona Odds

Saturday, Sept. 16
11 p.m. ET
Pac-12 Network
-110o / -110u
Arizona Odds
-110o / -110u
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute NCAAF odds here.

Let's head down to Tucson, Arizona, where the Arizona Wildcats will host the UTEP Miners in Pac-12 After Dark action.

The Wildcats are looking to build off a gritty performance against Mississippi State that ended in a 31-24 overtime loss. The Wildcats were down early but came roaring back thanks to the play of quarterback Jayden de Laura.

The Miners got absolutely waxed last week and lost, 38-7, to a Northwestern team they were favored over. I don't think the bottom of the barrel has been reached quite yet, but we're getting there.

Let's dig deeper into both of these teams and see if we can uncover a best bet in this UTEP vs. Arizona betting preview for Saturday, Sept. 16.

Check out our NCAAF Betting Hub for more college football previews, predictions, news and analysis.

UTEP Miners

Is this the Jacob Cowing revenge game? Well if it is, the Miners are in big trouble.

UTEP ranks 42nd in Rushing Success Rate and 35th in Line Yards. This team is an absolute snail, and if it's going to play slow, it has to remain successful on the ground.

Unfortunately for UTEP, Arizona is pretty stingy against the run. This could be a disaster for the Miners, as they're also 83rd in Offensive Finishing Drives. If they find themselves getting stuffed in short-yardage situations, a lot of their potential touchdown drives will result in punts or field goals.

Senior quarterback Gavin Hardison will have to protect the football in this matchup, and I'm sure the Miners will look to improve their passing attack. UTEP ranks 83rd in Passing Success Rate, which is a huge problem against a team that can stifle the run.

I expect the Miners to try and keep the ball away from Arizona's offense, but I have a hard time believing they'll be able to rely on their ground attack against Arizona's defensive front.

Arizona Wildcats

Arizona is a fun team to watch. Last week, it appeared the Wildcats were going to get blown out, but they fought back rather quickly. de Laura played a terrific game, as did Tetairoa McMillan, who racked up 181 yards receiving.

It's usually a good idea to buy low on a team that showed a lot of fight the week before, but I'm a bit worried that we could see a sleepy effort from Arizona. The Wildcats know the Miners just got trucked by Northwestern, so it's entirely possible they'll overlook their opponent.

Even if de Laura is sleepy to start, I think the Wildcats will take care of business against the Miners. I'm assuming they're going to rely on their run game, as the Miners' defensive "strength" comes against the pass.

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UTEP vs Arizona

Matchup Analysis

Toggle the dropdowns below to hide or show how UTEP and Arizona match up statistically:

UTEP Offense vs. Arizona Defense
Rush Success4228
Line Yards3518
Pass Success8366
Finishing Drives8332
Quality Drives5646
Arizona Offense vs. UTEP Defense
Rush Success2898
Line Yards4778
Pass Success580
Finishing Drives7594
Quality Drives8284
Pace of Play / Other
PFF Tackling3970
PFF Coverage82119
Special Teams SP+13356
Middle 85557
Seconds per Play30.5 (123)27.5 (78)
Rush Rate64.0% (15)41.6% (119)

UTEP vs Arizona

Betting Pick & Prediction

I usually like to back a team after a gritty effort the week before, but the market is steering me away from Arizona here.

I could see the Wildcats overlooking UTEP here after they faced an SEC opponent and saw the Miners get worked by the worst team in the Big Ten.

That being said, I think the under is the best play here. Even if Arizona comes out hot, I have a hard time believing UTEP's offense can keep pace. The Miners rank outside the top 80 in Passing Success Rate and Finishing Drives for a reason.

Both of these offenses are complete snails, and although the number has started to crash, it still sits above the key number of 55. Give me the under, and let's root for some defense in Tucson.

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