You may be familiar with our weekly moneyline underdog article. Well, we decided a couple of years ago that we needed to show love for the other side by also sharing our two favorite college football favorites that we share weekly on the "Big Bets on Campus" podcast.
We affectionately refer to them as "overdogs," thanks to one of our beloved callers. To kick off the chalk talk this year, we're rolling with a fresh G5 squad that didn't plan in Week 0 and a Power Conference bunch that also got some extra prep time.
Let's dive into our Week 1 college football predictions and NCAAF picks for Georgia Southern vs. Fresno State and Hawaii vs. Arizona on Saturday, Aug. 30.
Week 1 College Football Predictions
Stuckey: Georgia Southern -1.5 vs. Fresno State
| Georgia Southern Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | -125 |
| Fresno State Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -110 | 51.5 -110o / -110u | +105 |
This game fits perfectly into a trend I’ve been tracking for 10 years: teams making their season debut going up against teams that have already played. Since 2005, in FBS vs. FBS matchups, the fresh team has cashed at a 61.5% clip.
That makes this Fresno State vs. Georgia Southern game especially interesting.
Fresno State looked like a mess last week, and it's not a team I’m willing to trust right now. I expect its defense to bounce back somewhat, and I respect defensive coordinator Nick Benedetto, but its offense is just all over the place.
The offensive line is struggling, running the ball is tough, and its key weapons just aren’t there at the moment.
On the flip side, Georgia Southern’s Air Raid offense, led by quarterback JC French, should be able to move the chains and take advantage.
Plus, they come in with a big edge: film. They haven’t gotten beat up on the road, haven’t had travel hassles, and haven’t given away anything on tape, while Fresno State has had to show everything last week.
Georgia Southern has everything going its way here: momentum, game prep and a system that matches up well. I like the Eagles to get the job done on the road on Saturday.
Collin Wilson: Arizona -17.5 vs. Hawaii
| Hawaii Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+17.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | +550 |
| Arizona Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-17.5 -110 | 52.5 -110o / -110u | -800 |
I’m going all in on Arizona here. At the "Big Bets on Campus" event in Chicago, I kept telling people that Arizona was sitting at -13.5, and that number felt way too low given how things were shaping up.
Hawaii’s offense has struggled big time. Head coach Timmy Chang owns a record of 2-15 on the road. Things just don’t click for his team away from the island.
Out of 11 drives against Stanford in Week 0, the Rainbow Warriors managed just one methodical drive and no explosive drives. To put that into perspective, an explosive drive is gaining 10 yards per play, and Hawaii didn't have that kind of firepower.
Plus, quarterback Micah Alejado is dealing with a high ankle sprain, though he’s expected to play. As he proved in that game against Stanford, he's tough. But anyone watching could tell he wasn’t right, as he even had to hop off the field.
On the flip side, Stanford ran the ball 42 times and got stuffed on seven of those carries. That’s a Stuff Rate of roughly 15%, which sounds low, but it sounds even lower when it comes to the national average of about 30%.
Hawaii was supposed to have one of the best defensive fronts in the Mountain West with its defensive line and linebackers, and yet, it couldn’t even hit half the national benchmark against Stanford’s run game.
I just don’t buy its defense at this point.
Arizona’s going through some changes, too, with Seth Doege taking over the Air Raid offense. I’m expecting Noah Fifita to show up better than last year, and they brought in a new transfer center who should help shore things up.
Hawaii just won’t be able to exploit anything here.
All things considered, I’d be comfortable taking Arizona all the way up to -21. I’m locking it in at -17.5 for the Wildcats.
