College Football Weather Report: High Winds, Low Over/Under in Wyoming
Sep 15, 2018; Laramie, WY, USA; The Wyoming Cowboys celebrate after a victory against the Wofford Terriers at Jonah Field War Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Babbitt-USA TODAY Sports
- Only five games on this week's college slate are forecasted to post wind speeds of 10 mph or higher, with the Boise State-Wyoming game the highest at 13 mph.
- Four games are expected to have temperatures of 85 degrees or higher, with Oregon State-Arizona State the hottest at 94 degrees.
- The Pittsburgh-Central Florida game actually fits both weather categories right now, which has slightly favored the over historically.
It’s looking like a second straight week of college football that won’t feature crazy weather. If I had my way, each week would have 30 games with 20-mph winds. Maybe some snow here or there. No flooding rains, though. Not my cup of tea.
Here are the games popping off this week.
- Nevada at Air Force (63.5): 11 mph
- Pittsburgh at Central Florida (64.5): 10 mph
- Purdue at Nebraska (56.5): 11 mph
- Arkansas Pine Bluff at Florida Intl (OTB): 12 mph
- Boise State at Wyoming (47): 13 mph
Historically, games with 10+ mph winds have gone under 54.4% of the time, according to Bet Labs.
It’s not a particularly windy slate. Actually, this is quite similar to last week, when only three games ended up fitting, with the under going 2-1.
The windiest game of the bunch in Wyoming has easily the lowest total at just 47. Taking the under in these games hasn’t been nearly as profitable. Here is the under record with at least 10-mph wind:
- 47 and under: 220-198-7 (52.6%)
- 47.5 and over: 787-645-18 (55.0%)
You lose most of your edge when the total is that low, but the record does improve the more the wind speed bumps up.
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- USC at Arizona (61): 87 degrees
- Oregon State at Arizona State (64.5): 94 degrees
- Liberty New Mexico (64.5): 86 degrees
- Pittsburgh at Central Florida (64.5): 86 degrees
Historically, games with 85+ degree temperatures have gone over 54.8% of the time.
We’re coming to the end of the heat season, as just four games are projected to average more than 85 degrees — three of which are in the Southwest portion of the country. New Mexico is one of a handful of teams that has gone over the total in each of its games this season.
The fourth and only other game is in Central Florida, which you may recall is also projected to have double-digit winds. The over has gone 47-41 in games with 85+ degree temperatures and 10+ mph winds.
Three of the four games have over/unders of 64.5. Go figure.
Blind Melon would be pissed right now at Georgia Southern because that is currently the only game keeping us away from a no-rain slate. I could’ve just axed the entire section, but I know you guys want to know this stuff.
- Arkansas State at Georgia Southern
There’s currently about a 30% chance of rain, so perhaps Blind Melon will end up happy. God, I hate that song …