College Football Odds & Player Props for Week 7: Our Top 3 Bets, Including Bo Nix & Jaylen Warren (Oct. 15)
William Purnell/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Jaylen Warren.
- There's nothing quite like adding a few player props to your Saturday college football betting card.
- Alex Kolodziej sees betting value on three props for Saturday's slate, including picks for Bo Nix and Jaylen Warren.
- Check out all three of Kolodziej's player props for Saturday's college football games below.
We bounced back from a brutal 0-3 Week 5, hitting all three of our college football player props last Saturday.
Texas’ Casey Thompson and West Virginia’s Jarret Doege cashed their respective passing touchdown totals, and Auburn’s Bo Nix (over 0.5 interceptions) threw his first pick of the season.
Conference play’s heating up in Week 7. We’ll start our card in the Big 12, where we’ve had plenty of success this season.
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Oklahoma State RB Jaylen Warren Over/Under 94.5 Rushing Yards
Everyone’s talking about Oklahoma quarterback Caleb Williams and what he did to the Texas defense in relief of Spencer Rattler last weekend. After the freshman racked up 212 yards through the air and 88 more on the ground across just three quarters, can you blame them?
However, Kennedy Brooks’ banner day out of the Sooners’ backfield was somehow swept under the rug. He quietly compiled 217 rushing yards and two scores as the team’s top ball-carrier.
Warren should be licking his chops this week against a battered Texas defense.
The Utah State transfer has quietly registered 123 yards or more in three straight for an Oklahoma State offense running the ball at the seventh-highest rate in the entire country (66.5%).
He enjoyed his coming-out party in Week 4, romping Boise State for a whopping 218 yards on 32 carries.
Warren owns the highest backfield dominator rating (84.4%) and the 10th-best clip in yards per team play (1.75) among running backs in the 2022 class.
He’ll run all over a Longhorns defense that’s 114th nationally in yards per rush allowed (5.4).
Pick: Over 94.5
LSU WR Jack Bech Over/Under 3.5 Receptions
LSU’s season gets a whole lot tougher with star receiver Kayshon Boutte (38-509-9) out for the year. The Tigers are reeling and should be in catch-up mode against Florida as 10.5-point home favorites.
Bech gets an immediate bump.
Only Texas’ Xavier Worthy owns a better RYPTPA (Reception Yards Per Team Pass Attempt) mark than Bech among freshman wide receivers, according to Campus 2 Canton’s Jerrick Backous.
The former four-star’s second behind Boutte in both catches (22) and yards (272) on the depth chart this season. His volume immediately picks up in an offense that’s passing the ball on 60.5% of snaps — the ninth-highest clip in the nation.
I project Johnson for 23 completions on the dot. Adjusting Bech’s projected reception share from what he averaged with Boutte in the lineup (just north of 16%) to a more realistic number without him — let’s say 20% — Bech’s fair number should probably be 4.5, not 3.5.
Moreover, Bech’s been much more productive at home. He’s bagged at least four catches in all three contests in Death Valley, as opposed to just six combined across three road games.
Pick: Over 3.5
Auburn QB Bo Nix Over/Under 1.5 Passing Touchdowns
This is our second straight week fading Nix, this time on his passing touchdown total.
The handicap is pretty cut and dried: Nix has posted multiple touchdown passes in just one (!) of his 11 true road starts.
Saturday’s opponent, Arkansas, has played Texas, Georgia and most recently, just gave up 52 points to Ole Miss. Yet, the Razorbacks have allowed just three touchdowns through the air total in 2021.
Pick: Under 1.5