Week 8 of the NCAAF season is here, and while eyes are focused on the SEC (No. 5 Ole Miss vs. No. 9 Georgia, No. 11 Tennessee vs. No. 6 Alabama), I have five Week 8 college football picks and predictions for the afternoon window.
My primary goal of this piece is to simply share a few key angles, notable matchups and injury situations for each particular game that hopefully will make you a better bettor.
For full reference of all my spots for Week 8, here's the full piece.
- 2022-24: 169-123-1 (57.9%)
- 2025: 27-22-2 (55.1%)
- Overall: 196-145-3 (57.5%)
Week 8 College Football Picks for Afternoon Slate
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12 p.m. | Central Michigan +4 |
  | 3 p.m. | Purdue +3.5 |
  | 3 p.m. | Louisiana-Monroe +6 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Air Force -3.5 |
  | 3:30 p.m. | Old Dominion +2 |
Central Michigan +4 at Bowling Green
12 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
You know I love starting things off with the noon CBS Sports Network game.
I bet on Bowling Green last week and still have no idea how the Falcons covered double digits, let alone won the game outright, after trailing, 21-0, in a game it finished with more than 200 fewer yards.
That unlikely comeback marked the first time in 76 tries they came back from a deficit of three touchdowns over the past 20 seasons.
Toledo is going to Toledo under head coach Jason Candle, but it also took a flukey screen for a touchdown to end the half, a fumble at the 1-yard line and a trick play late in the second half (in addition to a couple of red-zone stops) to get there.
Other than that, the offense looked completely dysfunctional under backup quarterback Lucian Anderson III, who simply can't throw the ball downfield.
Original starting quarterback Drew Pyne was in a boot last week. I'm expecting him to miss this week, but his status still remains up in the air.
While Pyne isn't great by any stretch, he's still a few points better than Anderson.
Both of these defenses are much better suited to stop the run with severe deficiencies in the secondary. Well, in a matchup of Joe Labas vs. Lucian Anderson, the Chips would certainly hold an edge in their ability to complete passes downfield.
However, don't expect many of those on Saturday in Wood County in a matchup of two of the most run-heavy and slowest teams in the country. Points should come at a premium, which certainly makes the 'dog even more intriguing.
Plus, the situational spot significantly favors CMU.
While BG might come out a bit flat after an improbable comeback over its rival, Central Michigan could benefit immensely from its bye week, which I believe holds substantially more value for a team that had to deal with massive roster and staff turnover in the offseason (as CMU did).
Expect plenty of new wrinkles in one of the nation's most diverse rushing attacks under head coach Matt Drinkall, who should also fix some things along a struggling offensive line in a brand-new scheme.
The Chips also have some potentially large looming late-down regression on both sides of the ball based on their early-down data, while the opposite is true for the Falcons.
I just don't have hardly anything separating these two very similarly built teams with new head coaches, so I'll take the points in an ideal spot with a low total, especially with Pyne's status in doubt.
Notable Nugget
MAC home-field advantage is minuscule and generally gets overvalued by the market.
Since 2005, MAC home teams in league play have gone 444-521-15 ATS (46%). A $100 bettor who backed every home team over that span would have lost over $10,000 (-10.6% ROI).
And among all MAC teams, no team has cost bettors more at home than BG in conference play. The Falcons have gone 27-50 (35.1%) ATS, failing to cover by over four points per game on average, including an unbelievable 1-14 ATS (6.7%) as a short home favorite of less than six points.
Among all teams throughout college football, only Purdue has been less profitable at home in league play over the past 20 seasons.
Pick: Central Michigan +4 (Play to +3.5)
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Purdue +3.5 at Northwestern
3 p.m. ET ⋅ Big Ten Network
I believe we're getting some inflation in the market after Northwestern beat the corpse of Penn State in Happy Valley.
Meanwhile, Purdue has been extremely unlucky over the past two weeks against Illinois and Minnesota in a pair of misleading final scores.
Against the Illini, the Boilermakers had the significantly better Success Rate (something Ohio State can't say) but just couldn't overcome a pair of critical fumbles and the loss of senior captain cornerback Tony Grimes, which led to countless communication issues and coverage busts on the back end.
Then, last week against the Gophers, Purdue finished with almost 200 more yards of offense than Minnesota.
However, it couldn't overcome a -3 turnover margin that was capped off by the game-winning pick-six in the fourth quarter after the Boilermakers entered with a touchdown lead.
Following four straight losses (three against ranked foes) that certainly weren't helped by a -9 turnover margin, it's time to buy Purdue against a Northwestern team coming off its biggest program win in quite some time, especially considering I have Purdue power-rated as the superior team on the road against a team without a significant home-field advantage.
From a matchup perspective, Northwestern wants to lean on its ground game, but that's where the Purdue defense has excelled.
It has allowed only 4.0 yards per attempt despite playing one of the nation's toughest schedules so far, with matchups against some of the most dynamic backs in the country.
The Boilers did a nice job containing USC's Waymond Jordan and just held Minnesota's Darius Taylor to 32 yards on 14 attempts after holding the Illini to under three yards per carry on 41 attempts.
So, don't be surprised if we see a few Preston Stone turnovers on known passing downs. Stone owns the second-highest turnover-worthy play rate in the country among 102 quarterbacks with at least 150 dropbacks, trailing only the now-benched Malachi Nelson at UTEP.
Meanwhile, Purdue quarterback Ryan Browne should continue his very nice season against an attackable Wildcat coverage unit, especially considering the Boilers should have no issues getting their ground game going against a Northwestern run defense that has allowed 5.0 yards per carry (110th).
I basically project this game as a coin-flip, so give me the road dog catching over a field goal in a good situational spot with some potential positive turnover regression on the horizon.
Notable Nugget
Following an upset as an underdog of 20-plus points, home conference favorites have gone just 9-19 ATS (32.1%) since 2005, failing to cover by nearly six points per game on average.
Pick: Purdue +3.5 (Play to +3)
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UL Monroe +6 vs. Troy
3 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPN+
Has Troy turned a corner after three straight victories? I'm not sold.
The Trojans had a miraculous comeback on the road against Buffalo after the Bulls lost their starting quarterback to injury, which led to Troy coming back from a 17-0 deficit in the fourth quarter to pull out a 21-17 victory.
Over the next two weeks, Troy added two more wins, with both coming in overtime.
One came at home against 1-6 South Alabama, and the other against Texas State, which led, 28-7, after the first quarter and missed a 42-yard game-winning field goal at the end of regulation after finishing with more than 125 total net yards.
Can the Trojans keep this charade up? It's possible, but I believe they're over-inflated in the market compared to my numbers.
Plus, they find themselves in a tough situational spot with their third roadie over their past four games, following three miraculous victories that took every possible minute and then some.
Backup quarterback Tucker Kilcrease has played better over the past two games after looking completely inept when taking over the job due to injury.
He had a dazzling performance against Texas State last week, but his last two performances did come against two bottom-15 defenses.
UL Monroe doesn't have an elite defense by any stretch (and its special teams are dreadful, which worries me a bit), but it's materially better than both South Alabama and Texas State.
The Warhawks actually rank in the top 25 nationally in the more predictive Early Downs EPA but bottom-15 in late-down Success Rate.
Meanwhile, Troy's offense ranks in the bottom 10 nationally in Early Downs EPA but has made its hay with a top-50 Success Rate on late downs.
That screams late-down regression, so don't be surprised if Troy struggles on third and fourth downs in this game.
The Warhawks will ugly this game up with a heavy rushing volume against a poor Troy run defense and ultimately grind this game to a halt as one of the slowest teams in the nation.
That certainly makes the home pup more intriguing in a game I project closer to a field goal than six.
Notable Nugget
UL Monroe has historically been dreadful as a home favorite but has performed admirably when catching points given its style.
Since 2005, the Warhawks have gone just 16-31 ATS (34%) when laying points in their home stadium (with a -4 cover margin) compared to 24-23-1 ATS as an underdog with an average margin of +2.5 points per game.
Pick: UL Monroe +6 or Better
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Air Force -3.5 vs. Wyoming
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ CBS Sports Network
If you haven't watched the Air Force offense, it's must-see TV on every possession. Just change the channel when the Falcons are on defense, as they can't stop a nose bleed, allowing over 8.0 yards per play.
The run defense isn't the worst I've ever seen, but the secondary couldn't cover you and me.
However, Wyoming will be the easiest test for the Air Force back end by a country mile, especially considering all of the injuries the Pokes are dealing with at tight end.
While I don't have many positive things to say about the Air Force defense, it has at least played an extremely tough schedule of opposing offenses, with its five losses coming to Utah State, Boise State, Hawaii, UNLV and Navy.
Just based on the latest SP+ ratings, four of those five offenses rank inside the top 50 with an overall average of right around 50. Wyoming sits clearly outside the top 100.
Ultimately, I just don't see Wyoming having the horses to keep up with this electric Air Force offense, led by quarterback Liam Szarka, who leads the team in both passing and rushing for a unit averaging over 490 yards and 38 points per game.
Szarka has arguably been the best quarterback in the nation at the Group of Five level so far in 2025.
Give me the 1-5 Falcons on a discount at home to get their first FBS victory of the season after coming up just short in the final minute against a pair of teams in the College Football Playoff discussion in Navy and UNLV on the road.
Meanwhile, I have no issues fading Wyoming with an offense that averages under 20 points per game (against an easier schedule) one week following a very fortunate victory over San Jose State.
In that game, Wyoming trailed, 28-14, at halftime, with half of its points coming on a punt return touchdown.
In the third quarter, the Spartans then missed a pair of field goals to extend the lead, and then starting quarterback Walker Eget went down with an injury.
His backup then threw a pick-six in the fourth quarter, which led to a 21-0 runout for the Pokes, who won 35-28 with a pair of non-offensive scores. To illustrate the drop-off in QB production after Eget left, take a look at these splits:
- Eget: 23-of-37, 295 yards, 4 TDs, 0 INTs
- Backups: 8-of-19, 45 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
Wyoming will hit some explosives, as everybody does against Air Force, but not as consistently as some of these other top-50 offenses have done against the Falcons, who should continue to score at will on a weekly basis just like they did last week in Vegas when they amassed more than 600 yards of total offense.
I think this line should be closer to 6.
Notable Nugget
Wyoming is just 7-16 ATS (30.4%) as a road conference 'dog of less than 10 points since 2005.
Pick: Air Force -3.5 (Play to -4)
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Old Dominion +2 at James Madison
3:30 p.m. ET ⋅ ESPNU
Some may have jumped off the Old Dominion bandwagon after last week's upset loss to Marshall, but not me. I'm still holding on.
The Monarchs may have been caught looking ahead a bit to this week's Sun Belt showdown. But they were also just done in by a -5 turnover margin. You're just not going to win many games on the road in league play when you lose the turnover battle, 5-0.
From an EPA and yards-per-play margin, ODU has been the clearly superior team despite a more difficult schedule.
The Dukes have played one of the easiest slates in the country, especially in league play with four wins over Georgia State, Georgia Southern, Liberty and Louisiana.
Yet, despite playing some of the nation's worst defenses, the JMU offense has been a bit stuck in the mud. They only led, 17-13, in the fourth quarter against Liberty, which lost its starting quarterback to an injury earlier in the game.
They did run all over Georgia Southern (like everybody else) but needed a fourth-quarter touchdown (on a 28-yard drive) to escape lowly Georgia State, 14-7.
And just last week, they found themselves tied in the fourth quarter at home against Louisiana with another backup QB.
Penalties also continue to plague the Dukes, who have the second-most penalty yards in the country (ODU ranks 53rd in comparison).
The JMU defense is the real deal, and Wayne Knight is a very good back, but quarterback Alonza Barnett isn't playing at a very high level at the moment.
Conversely, ODU quarterback Colton Joseph has been spectacular all season. Just take a look at the difference between these two signal-callers:
- Barnett: 6:6 BTT-TWP ratio, 60% completion percentage, 7.5 aDOT
- Joseph: 14:6 BTT-TWP, 62.5% completion percentage, 13.8 aDOT
Joseph has also averaged 7.5 yards per carry with 300 more rushing yards than Barnett, who has averaged 3.5 yards per attempt despite facing an easier schedule.
Despite last week's results, I still have ODU power-rated as the better team by about a field goal on a neutral field, so I'll take the points with the superior quarterback on the road with short travel.
Notable Nugget
ODU head coach Ricky Rahne has been one of the most profitable road underdogs since taking over in Norfolk. He has gone 16-7 ATS (69.6%) in that spot, covering by nearly eight points per game with eight outright upsets.
Pick: Old Dominion +2 (Play to +1.5)
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