The Western Michigan Broncos take on the UMass Minutemen in Amherst, MA. Kickoff is set for 2:30 p.m. ET on ESPN+.
Western Michigan is favored by 12.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -500. UMass, meanwhile, comes in as a +12.5 underdog and sits at +375 on the moneyline to pull off the upset. The over/under is set at 45.5 total points.
Here’s my Western Michigan vs. UMass prediction and college football picks for Saturday, October 4.
Western Michigan vs UMass Prediction
- Western Michigan vs. UMass Pick: UMass ML +375
My UMass vs. Western Michigan best bet is on the Minutemen to win this game outright. Find the best line available on our live NCAAF odds page.
Western Michigan vs UMass Odds
| Western Michigan Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-12.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | -500 |
| UMass Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+12.5 -110 | 45.5 -110o / -110u | +375 |
- Western Michigan vs UMass Spread: Western Michigan -12.5, UMass +12.5
- Western Michigan vs UMass Over/Under: 45.5 Points
- Western Michigan vs UMass Moneyline: Western Michigan -500, UMass +375
Western Michigan vs UMass College Football Betting Preview
Saturday's Western Michigan vs. UMass game fits a historically profitable betting system from our Bet Labs database.
In college football, normal rest contrarian underdogs are teams that have had a full week or slightly longer to prepare, yet still face significant betting line movement against them.
When the spread shifts multiple points from open to close, it often signals strong market confidence in the favorite.
However, these dogs, playing in the heart of the season from September through November or into the postseason, benefit from preparation time and game planning.
With spreads in the moderate to large range, they are capable of upsetting inflated odds, especially when the market’s perception has tilted too far, creating hidden value on the moneyline.
This system, called "Normal Rest Contrarian Dogs," has yielded an all-time ROI of 7%. A $100 bettor who bets this trend consistently would be up $6,869 since 2005. In 2025 alone, this trend boasts an ROI of 31%.
Western Michigan vs UMass Pick, Betting Analysis
Despite coming in as a double-digit underdog, UMass has a few ways to keep this close.
The Minutemen actually own a Success Rate advantage on both sides of the ball. While a top-100 ranking on offense and defense may not be that impressive, it's much better than Western Michigan, which sits outside the top 100 in both categories, including 131st in Success Rate allowed on the defensive side of the ball.
In fact, we make the Broncos closer to a 1.5-point favorite in this spot.
While it makes sense to take the points with UMass here, we'll also take a shot on the moneyline given the matchup and system at play.
Pick: UMass ML +375
