Wilson: My Projected Over/Unders for Every Week 13 College Football Game
Timothy Flores-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Xavier Jones
- Collin Wilson projects every Week 13 college football over/under so you can find early betting value when these lines are posted market-wide on Monday.
Before we get to this week’s projected totals, let’s talk about how betting a live total can be an art form.
When Baylor went up 28-3 on Oklahoma with 11 minutes left in the second quarter, I knew the time was right for a live under around 70. My projection was 66.5, so I already favored that side pregame.
After an opening drive field goal by the Sooners, Baylor went on to score four straight touchdowns.
But Baylor had generated three quick touchdowns off starting field position off the its own 46, Oklahoma’s 27 and Oklahoma’s 9-yard line. The Bears would not continue to be granted such favorable field position and couldn’t keep up that scoring pace.
As it turns out, Baylor didn’t even score in the second half. It’s important to look at how each team has scored to get an idea of the offense’s effectiveness to that point.
So how do pregame totals get made? Oddsmakers assign a total point value to each FBS team, then adjust for weather and pace to make a game total.
Our total projections below are a combination of plays per game, yards per play and adjusted pace. Ratings in standard and passing downs run rate also dictate movement in a projection. Oddsmakers adjust totals based on game results, while our projections rely on a bit of mathematics.
Be sure to check out the The Action Network power ratings that are built as result of injuries, true box score results and advanced stats to find betting value on opening point spreads. Our Week 13 projected point spreads are here.
Follow me in The Action Network App to see when I bet opening lines early in the week.
Projected College Football Totals, Week 13
Notes on Totals for Week 13
- The forecast calls rain and snow from Missouri to Indiana on early Saturday.
- Winds are projected greater than 15 mph when San Diego State travels to Hawai’i, per Sports Insights.
- TCU, Tulsa and LSU have run the most plays per game over the past three weeks, an average of at least 85.9. Cal comes in on the opposite end of the spectrum through the same time frame, averaging the fewest.
- Ohio State, Clemson and Alabama remain as the only teams with a net yards per play differential over 3.0. While UTSA continues to toe the line in negative yards per play differential at -3.7.
- Red zone scoring is led by Navy, Oregon State and Ohio State. Leaders in opponent red zone scoring also include Ohio State, Florida and Georgia.