The fascinating race for the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress has entered the homestretch.
The 98th Academy Awards are scheduled for Sunday, March 15, 2026, and prediction markets have seen constant fluctuation leading up to the big night.
The resurgent veteran Amy Madigan currently leads the field, but it ain't over until it's over. This one could definitely go to multiple other worthy candidates. We shall see on Sunday!
How to Trade on the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress Market
Trading on this market via Kalshi is about more than picking a winner; it's about timing the market.
On Kalshi, you can trade your "Yes" or "No" contracts up until the moment the envelope is opened, meaning users can sell contracts for a profit or cut their losses ahead of the ceremony.
Here are the current probabilities on Kalshi:
If you want to get in on the action, you can sign up to Kalshi with promo code ACTION, and you'll be able to Trade $10, Get $10!
How Kalshi Works
Just getting started with Kalshi? There are a few things you should know before diving in.
On Kalshi, you trade binary event contracts with other people rather than betting against the house.
Binary event contracts are purchased for between 1¢-99¢ and resolve to either "Yes" or "No", meaning it pays out either:
✅ $1.00 if the event happens
❌ $0.00 if the event does not happen
Here's a video that explains things a little further for your reference:
Recent Market Movement: The Madigan Momentum vs. The Field
The most significant shift in the Oscars 2026 landscape has been the dramatic reversal of odds between Teyana Taylor and Amy Madigan.
- While Taylor’s early-season dominance at the Golden Globes once made her the runaway favorite, the market has completely reshaped itself following the Critics’ Choice and SAG Awards.
- Amy Madigan’s victory at the Screen Actors Guild on March 1 has officially catapulted her to the front of the pack, with her Kalshi implied probability now sitting at a commanding 51%.
This surge is largely attributed to legacy momentum; as a beloved industry veteran with a 40-year gap since her last nomination, Madigan is benefiting from a powerful narrative that often resonates with Academy voters.
Despite this, the race remains far from settled.
- Teyana Taylor continues to hold a strong second-place position, buoyed by the overall strength of One Battle After Another.
- Close behind is Wunmi Mosaku, whose chances spiked following a notable BAFTA win and her presence in the most-nominated film of the year, Sinners.
Meanwhile, the Sentimental Value costars, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning, are currently navigating a potential split vote scenario. On Kalshi, their individual contract prices remain suppressed as traders worry the two internal performances will siphon support from one another, making it difficult for either to break into the top tier of the market before Sunday's ceremony.
An upset is always in the cards, but at the moment, Kalshi users see this as a three-woman race.
Who will take home the hardware for the 2026 Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress?
Who will win the Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress in 2026? Amy Madigan is the current frontrunner of what has been a volatile race, but Teyana Taylor and Wunmi Mosaku are hot on her heels!
With so many stellar performances this year, it's worth taking the time to look at each of the nominees a little closer.
The Legend: Amy Madigan (Weapons)
In Zach Cregger’s horror-mystery Weapons, Madigan plays Gladys, a supremely creepy aunt whose performance has been called the "horror event of the year."
This marks her first nomination in 40 years, and her recent wins at Critics’ Choice and SAG have turned her into the heavy favorite.
Traders on Kalshi are betting that the Academy will reward a veteran for a transformative late-career peak.
The Breakout: Teyana Taylor (One Battle After Another)
Playing Perfidia in Paul Thomas Anderson’s latest epic, Taylor has been a critical darling since the film's fall release.
Her Golden Globe win proved she has the star power to win, and her chemistry with Leonardo DiCaprio is the emotional core of the movie.
While her odds cooled slightly after the SAG Awards, she remains the primary challenger to Madigan's "legacy" run.
The Spiritual Force: Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners)
Mosaku plays Annie in Ryan Coogler’s vampire epic Sinners, which leads the night with 16 nominations.
Her recent BAFTA win was a massive shock to the market, sending her Kalshi price surging as traders realized the international voting bloc is firmly in her corner.
As a key part of the most-nominated film in history, she is a high-value potential upset candidate.
The Revelation: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value)
Lilleaas plays Agnes in the Norwegian family drama Sentimental Value. Initially written as comic relief, her performance evolved into the film's most devastating dramatic anchor.
Having already won at several international festivals, she carries the prestige vote, though her odds are currently hampered by her own costar's nomination.
The Surprise: Elle Fanning (Sentimental Value)
Fanning’s nomination for her role as Rachel was one of the biggest surprises of the January announcement. While she has been a television mainstay for years, this is her first time in the big leagues.
Though she is currently viewed as a long shot on Kalshi due to the internal competition with Lilleaas, her presence on the ballot is a major endorsement of the film’s widespread Academy support.
Editor's Pick for Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress 2026
As a big fan of the horror genre, I have a lot of thoughts on this year's Academy Award for Best Supporting Actress. Not one but two nominations from horror or horror-adjacent films is amazing to see. Maybe that's the secret to getting nominations for horror films? Be a horror/thriller, or horror/however many other genres you could classify Sinners as, as opposed to pure horror.
Funnily enough, the person I believe gave the best supporting actress performance in horror this year wasn't really ever in the awards conversation. If you're a horror fanatic, you may or may not agree that Sally Hawkins' role in Bring Her Back was the pinnacle this year.
That being said, I was ecstatic to see Sinners set the nominations record, and for Weapons to have such commercial success, and I acknowledge that Bring Her Back was probably way too bleak to have enough universal appeal for any real mainstream awards consideration.
Am I bitter that Sally didn't get a nomination this year? Am I also still bitter that Toni Collette didn't get a nomination for Hereditary? Am I elated to see horror getting some well-earned recognition this year, nonetheless?
Yes, you betcha, and absolutely.
So who am I pulling for this year? Here's how I look at it:
- ✅ Sinners has 16 nominations. It's very unlikely that it'll go home empty-handed.
- ✅ The same can be said for One Battle After Another with 13 noms.
- ✅ Perhaps not as guaranteed to take home hardware as Sinners or OBAA, Sentimental Values still has 9 chances.
- ❓ Weapons? One nomination.
Give me Amy Madigan, for her legacy, for horror, but most importantly, because she gave the most memorable performance of the year in a truly unexpected spectacle of a film.
