Broken Lizard's Super Troopers 3 pulls into theaters on August 7, 2026, and traders are already taking positions on how critics will grade it. On Kalshi, the CFTC-regulated prediction market, the board is pricing the film's final Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score, with the aggregate forecast sitting at 41.9%.
The Tomatometer still reads "coming soon," and no critic reviews have posted yet, so this market is running on pure anticipation and franchise history.
Super Troopers 3 Rotten Tomatoes Score Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi event contracts are priced from 1¢ to 99¢, and that price maps directly to the market's implied probability. A contract trading at 28¢ reflects a 28% chance the outcome happens.
A "Yes" position settles at $1.00 if the event occurs and $0 if it does not, and traders can buy or sell before the market resolves. Each "Above" contract here settles Yes if Super Troopers 3 finishes above that Tomatometer strike once critic reviews are counted following the August 7 theatrical release.
Above 45 (28%, Yes 28¢ / No 74¢, +3 pts)
This is the most active line on the board and the closest thing to a coin flip the market offers. At 28%, the crowd sees a better-than-one-in-four shot that Super Troopers 3 clears a 45% Tomatometer.
That would put it ahead of both prior films, which is a meaningful bar. The 3-point uptick suggests early trailer reception has nudged sentiment slightly higher.
Above 50 (22%, Yes 22¢ / No 82¢, -1 pt)
Fifty percent is the line between "Rotten" and "Fresh," and the market gives it just a 22% chance. The 1-point slip reflects skepticism that a Broken Lizard comedy can flip a critical consensus that has stayed cool for two decades.
For traders, this is the strike where the narrative and the numbers pull hardest against each other.
Above 55 (17%, Yes 17¢ / No 86¢, +4 pts)
The largest positive mover on the board, Above 55 jumped 4 points to 17%. That is a notable swing for a bucket this far from the franchise's historical range, and it hints that some traders are pricing in a nostalgia bump for the 25-years-later reunion.
Above 60 (13%, Yes 12¢ / No 90¢, +3 pts)
At 13%, the market treats a 60-plus Tomatometer as a genuine long shot. A move to that level would represent the best-reviewed Broken Lizard feature in years, so the 3-point gain is more optimism than expectation.
- Above 65 (9%, +1 pt): Trading at 9¢, this line prices a single-digit chance that critics turn meaningfully favorable, a level no Super Troopers film has approached.
- Above 70 (5%, -1 pt): At 5¢ and drifting down, the market sees a 70-plus score as a remote outcome for a raunchy sequel comedy.
- Above 75 (4%, -1 pt): Priced at 4¢, this is deep tail territory, reserved for a scenario where reviews sharply overperform every precedent.
- Above 80 (3%, -2 pts): The longest shot on the board at 3¢, and the biggest faller. An 80-plus Tomatometer for Super Troopers 3 would be one of the year's larger critical surprises.
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Super Troopers 3 Rotten Tomatoes Score Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The single most important input on this board is franchise history. The original Super Troopers landed a 37% Tomatometer in 2001, and Super Troopers 2 came in at 35% in 2018, so critics have never warmed to the series even as audiences turned it into a cult favorite.
Against that backdrop, the market's 41.9% aggregate forecast is actually optimistic. The crowd is betting that a 25-years-later reunion, the return of the full Broken Lizard team, and Brian Cox reprising Captain O'Hagan could lift the score a few points above the franchise norm.
The movement pattern tells a consistent story. Above 45, Above 55, and Above 60 all ticked higher, while Above 50, Above 70, Above 75, and Above 80 ticked lower. Traders are concentrating weight into the 45-to-60 band and pulling it away from both the "Fresh" threshold and the high-score tail.
The shape here is a low-probability ladder with no runaway outcome. The single biggest variable is that the Tomatometer is still empty, so the first wave of reviews after the August 7 opening could reprice this entire board in a matter of hours.
How to Trade Super Troopers 3 Rotten Tomatoes Score on Kalshi
Ready to take a position? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this CFTC-regulated exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involve risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
Super Troopers 3 Rotten Tomatoes Score: Final Thoughts
This market is a bet on whether nostalgia can move a needle that critics have kept pinned in the mid-30s for two Super Troopers films. The 41.9% forecast leans slightly hopeful, but with the top contract, Above 45, priced at only 28%, the crowd is not convinced the threequel breaks the pattern. The key variable is simple: once the first reviews post after August 7, this quiet board could move fast.
Super Troopers 3 Rotten Tomatoes Score FAQs
What does the Kalshi Super Troopers 3 market resolve on?
Each contract resolves based on Super Troopers 3's official Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer score. An "Above 45" contract, for example, settles Yes if the final Tomatometer finishes above 45% once critic reviews are counted.
When does Super Troopers 3 come out?
Super Troopers 3 opens exclusively in theaters on August 7, 2026, distributed by Searchlight Pictures. Critic reviews typically post in the days around a theatrical release, which is when the Tomatometer will begin to populate.
What is the current Rotten Tomatoes score for Super Troopers 3?
As of now, the Tomatometer reads "coming soon" because no critic reviews have been published yet. That is why the Kalshi market is trading on anticipation rather than a live score.
What is the most likely Rotten Tomatoes score according to Kalshi?
Kalshi's aggregate forecast sits at 41.9%. The board's most active contract, Above 45, trades at 28%, so the market's central expectation clusters in the low-to-mid 40s.
How did the first two Super Troopers films score on Rotten Tomatoes?
Super Troopers earned a 37% Tomatometer in 2001, and Super Troopers 2 landed at 35% in 2018. Both films drew far warmer audience scores, reflecting the franchise's cult status.
Why is the Above 50 contract priced so low?
Fifty percent is the dividing line between a "Rotten" and "Fresh" rating, and the market gives Super Troopers 3 just a 22% chance of clearing it. No film in the franchise has come close to Fresh, which keeps this strike cheap.
What could move the Super Troopers 3 Rotten Tomatoes market?
The biggest catalyst is the first wave of published reviews after the August 7 release. Because the Tomatometer is currently empty, even a handful of early scores could reprice the entire board quickly.
How do I trade the Super Troopers 3 market on Kalshi?
You buy a "Yes" or "No" contract on whichever Tomatometer strike you have a read on, at a price between 1¢ and 99¢. If your side is correct at resolution, each contract pays out $1.00.
