The Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race still have Republicans as favorites on Polymarket and Kalshi, even as the latest Jolly vs Donalds polls and Moody vs Nixon polls show a much tighter fight than the prices suggest.
More than 2.7 million Floridians have already voted in the Florida governor election and Senate contest, and registered Democrats and Republicans are nearly even among them despite the GOP's registration edge of roughly 1.5 million voters.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms with eight days left before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (83¢) | $120.48 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (19¢) | $526.32 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (89¢) | $112.36 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (87¢) | $114.94 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (13¢) | $769.23 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Florida Governor Election and Florida Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Florida contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Florida Governor race market and the Senate market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and traders can buy or sell shares at any point before then.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race. Independent candidates on the ballot make these No prices approximations.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Polymarket prices Donalds as a better than 4-to-1 favorite, and the gap between that number and the late-October polling is the central story in the Florida Governor election.
Byron Donalds (YES 83¢ / NO 19¢)
Polymarket's 83¢ price implies an 83% chance, and it leans on structure more than momentum. Republicans hold a registration edge of roughly 1.5 million voters, and Donalds and his affiliated committees have raised about $120.9 million to roughly $14.6 million for Jolly, with nearly seven times Jolly's cash on hand.
The Jolly vs Donalds polls still mostly point his way, though by shrinking margins. Stetson University has him ahead 52-41 and a co/efficient survey from a Republican polling firm has him up 8, but the University of North Florida's October 12-19 poll of 1,471 likely voters put his lead at just 49-47.
David Jolly (YES 19¢ / NO 83¢)
Jolly at 19¢ implies a 19% chance, and the Jolly vs Donalds polls are the reason traders haven't written him off. Change Research had the two tied at 47% in an October 8-10 survey, and St. Pete Polls found a 45-45 dead heat.
In the UNF poll he leads independents by 16 points and pulls 11% of registered Republicans, while only 5% of Democrats back Donalds. He is trying to become the first Democrat elected Florida governor since 1994.
Florida Senate Race 2026
The Senate board is more lopsided, with Polymarket treating Ashley Moody as a strong favorite in the special election for the seat Marco Rubio vacated.
Ashley Moody (YES 89¢ / NO 11¢, -2 pts)
Moody slipped 2 points, the only move shown on either Polymarket board. She is the appointed incumbent, Florida hasn't sent a Democrat to the Senate since 2012, and she has been at 45% or better in every public poll since the August 18 primary.
The Moody vs Nixon polls have narrowed, though. UNF found her lead down to 49-45 from eight points in July, and its pollster said independents seem more bothered by her ties to the Hope Florida controversy than by Nixon's ideology.
Angie Nixon (YES 11¢ / NO 89¢)
Nixon, a progressive state representative from Jacksonville, won the August 18 Democratic primary over Alex Vindman despite raising a fraction of his money. She has ranged from 40% to 47% in public polls since then.
UNF has her ahead among independents by 15 points, and St. Pete Polls found her up 66-24 with voters under 30. The Moody vs Nixon polls range from Mason-Dixon's 10-point Moody lead to a 47-45 St. Pete Polls margin, a far tighter spread than an 11¢ price implies.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Governor market has traded roughly $4.49 million in volume while its Senate market has topped $2.22 million.
Florida Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's board for the Florida governor election sits 3¢ below Polymarket on Donalds, and its own margin forecast has the Republican up 5.2 points.
Byron Donalds (YES 80¢ / NO 21¢, -3 pts)
Donalds dropped 3 points on Kalshi, the steepest slide on any of its Florida boards, and the exchange shows a 79% chance alongside an 80¢ Yes price.
UNF's pollster called the 49-47 result too close to distinguish a Donalds lead from a Jolly lead given the 2.8-point margin of error, which makes 80¢ a confident price for a race that close.
David Jolly (YES 21¢ / NO 80¢, +3 pts)
Jolly gained 3 points, and the board shows a small quirk: a Donalds NO at 21¢ costs exactly the same as a Jolly YES at 21¢, even though they pay differently. NO on the favorite also cashes if a third candidate wins, while Jolly's YES pays only if he does.
His case rests on independents and on women, who backed him 49% to 41% in the Mason-Dixon poll for NBC 6.
Florida Senate Race 2026
Kalshi has Moody 2¢ lower than Polymarket, with a margin forecast of Republican +7.0.
Ashley Moody (YES 87¢ / NO 14¢, -2 pts)
Moody fell 2 points to 87¢. A 7-point forecast sits between UNF's 4-point lead and Mason-Dixon's 10, and it lines up with the roughly 7-to-8-point margins in published polling averages.
The co/efficient poll from October 20 had her ahead 48-40, which keeps the Moody vs Nixon polls tilted her way even with the UNF tightening.
Angie Nixon (YES 13¢ / NO 88¢, +2 pts)
Nixon gained 2 points, and Kalshi prices her 2¢ above Polymarket.
Mason-Dixon found her leading Moody 41% to 35% among independents, and UNF's 15-point independent edge for her suggests that bloc is the path to a market-moving poll.
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Florida Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Kalshi also lets traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Republican sweep is the dominant outcome at 79¢, a Jolly win paired with a Moody win is next at 15¢, and both outcomes involving a Nixon win are long shots.
Kalshi is the only exchange in this piece with a combo board, and it prices all four possible pairings, though the market is thin at roughly $10,800 in total volume.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Ashley Moody win (GOP sweep) | YES 79¢ | NO 26¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Ashley Moody win (split ticket) | YES 15¢ | NO 89¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | David Jolly and Angie Nixon win (Dem sweep) | YES 12¢ | NO 94¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Byron Donalds and Angie Nixon win (split ticket) | YES 6¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Florida Governor and Senate Races
The two boards agree on every favorite. Donalds sits at YES 83¢ on Polymarket and YES 80¢ on Kalshi, while Moody is at YES 89¢ and YES 87¢, respectively.
The underdogs tell the same story in reverse. Jolly trades at YES 19¢ on Polymarket and YES 21¢ on Kalshi, and Nixon is at YES 11¢ and YES 13¢.
Kalshi is the friendlier exchange for Democrats in both races, giving each Democratic candidate an extra 2¢ over Polymarket, which is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the surveys. Jolly vs Donalds polls have ranged from Stetson's 11-point Donalds lead to Change Research's 47-47 tie, yet neither board has Donalds below YES 80¢.
Moody vs Nixon polls show a similar spread, from Mason-Dixon's 10-point Moody lead to St. Pete Polls' 47-45 result, but both markets still treat her as a strong favorite at YES 87¢ or better.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is contract design: Kalshi's combo board lets traders express a view on the two races together, while Polymarket's Governor and Senate boards here only cover each race on its own.
Florida Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
Kalshi shows Donalds down 3 points and Jolly up 3 in the Florida Governor election, with Moody down 2 and Nixon up 2 in the Senate, and Polymarket's Senate board shows the same 2-point drop for Moody. Traders are trimming both favorites as the final polls come in.
The Governor board is where prices and polls pull furthest apart. Stetson (+11), the James Madison Institute (+10), co/efficient (+8) and Mason-Dixon (+7) all have Donalds comfortably ahead, while UNF and YouGov have him up just 2 and both Change Research and St. Pete Polls show a tie.
Early voting is the new variable. Through October 25, roughly 2.77 million ballots had been cast, about 1.40 million by mail and 1.37 million in person, according to state data compiled by On Point Politics. Registered Democrats account for 39.8% of them and Republicans 39.6%, with independents and others at 20.6%.
Democrats lead the mail ballots and Republicans lead in-person voting, and party registration shows who voted, not how. Even so, UNF's pollster said unusually strong Democratic turnout would make Jolly a slight favorite and Nixon more competitive, while a more enthusiastic GOP base would give Donalds and Moody easier wins.
The combo board adds one more read. A Donalds and Moody sweep at 79¢ sits just under Donalds' 80¢ standalone price on Kalshi, which treats a Moody win as close to automatic if Donalds wins. Adding the two Moody pairings gives 94¢, well above her 87¢ Senate price, and the four combo Yes prices sum to 112¢, a gap worth discounting given how thin the market is.
Early voting runs through October 31 statewide, and through November 1 in Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties. The next daily turnout reports and the final Jolly vs Donalds polls and Moody vs Nixon polls are the likeliest triggers for a repricing.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | Byron Donalds | YES (83¢) | $120.48 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Polymarket | David Jolly | YES (19¢) | $526.32 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | Byron Donalds | YES (80¢) | $125.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Governor Race | Kalshi | David Jolly | YES (21¢) | $476.19 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Ashley Moody | YES (89¢) | $112.36 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Polymarket | Angie Nixon | YES (11¢) | $909.09 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Ashley Moody | YES (87¢) | $114.94 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Florida Senate Race | Kalshi | Angie Nixon | YES (13��) | $769.23 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races with different risk profiles: a Florida Governor race where the polls run from a tie to a double-digit Donalds lead, and a Senate race where Moody has led nearly every survey but the margin has narrowed.
Watch the early voting totals for the clearest read on turnout. Both exchanges still have the Republicans as clear favorites, and the final days of voting are the most likely thing to change that picture before November 3.
Florida Governor Race and Florida Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Florida Governor race odds?
Byron Donalds is trading at 83¢ on Polymarket and 80¢ on Kalshi, while David Jolly sits at 19¢ on Polymarket and 21¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Florida Senate race?
Ashley Moody is the favorite at 89¢ on Polymarket and 87¢ on Kalshi, with Angie Nixon priced at 11¢ and 13¢, respectively.
What do the latest Jolly vs Donalds polls show?
The polls are split. Stetson University has Donalds ahead 52-41 and a co/efficient survey has him up 8, while UNF has him up 49-47, Change Research shows a 47-47 tie and St. Pete Polls shows a 45-45 dead heat.
What do the latest Moody vs Nixon polls show?
Mason-Dixon for NBC 6 has Moody ahead 50-40, co/efficient has her up 48-40, UNF has her ahead 49-45 and St. Pete Polls found her leading 47-45.
How do Jolly vs Donalds polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling suggests, with both exchanges keeping Donalds between 80¢ and 83¢ even though several recent polls show a tie or a two-point race.
Are Moody vs Nixon polls tightening before Election Day?
Results vary by pollster, but UNF found Moody's lead shrinking from 8 points in July to 4 in October. Moody dropped 2 points on both exchanges' boards, and Nixon gained 2 points on Kalshi.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Florida Governor election slightly differently?
The boards are within 3¢ of each other. Gaps like Donalds at 83¢ versus 80¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Florida Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Kalshi prices a Donalds and Moody sweep at 79¢, a Jolly and Moody split at 15¢, a Jolly and Nixon sweep at 12¢ and a Donalds and Nixon split at 6¢.
How much early voting has happened for the Florida Governor election?
Through October 25, about 2.77 million ballots had been cast, with registered Democrats at 39.8% and Republicans at 39.6%. Mandatory early voting runs through October 31, and Election Day is November 3.
How do I trade the Florida Governor race and Florida Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
