A major winter storm barreling toward New York City this weekend has prediction markets pricing significant snowfall totals, with Kalshi traders saying as of Friday afternoon that there's a 95% chance ($0.95) for 6+ inches and 80% probability ($0.80) for 8+ inches of snow from January 24-26.
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The betting activity has been intense, with the 12+ inch threshold drawing the heaviest volume at over 36,000 contracts traded while pricing at 61 cents (61% chance) as of Friday afternoon. Even more dramatic totals are finding support, as traders see a 43% probability ($0.43) of 15+ inches and surprisingly give 22% odds ($0.22) for 18+ inches, suggesting this could be a truly historic storm.
But Meteorologist Ryan Hall said Friday that NYC is the biggest wildcard for snowfall in the Northeast: "No current data supports a maximum snow swath over or south of NYC. What the models are showing is the heaviest snow tracking to the north with sleet very likely spreading into the NYC metro at some point during the event. Realistic range: NYC could see anywhere from 5 to about 12 inches depending on snow-to-liquid ratios in the front end of the system and how quickly the sleet moves in. If you're looking at forecasts showing 15+ inches for the city, that's a low-probability outcome that would require everything to break perfectly for snow."
New York City hasn't gotten 20 inches of snow total in any of the last four winters.
Other weather forecasters are backing up the market's bullish snow expectations. New York City could see accumulations of a foot or more, with the city and Long Island potentially landing in the 6-to-12-inch range. NBC New York has increased their projected totals, calling for 8-12 inches across much of the region including New York City, though coastal areas may see slightly lower amounts due to potential mixing with sleet.
A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Tri-State area from late Saturday night through Monday afternoon, with the heaviest snow expected Sunday afternoon and evening. Government agencies are preparing for what could be one of the biggest winter storms in years, while residents stock up on supplies.
The prediction market probabilities reveal trader confidence in a significant event, with near-certainty pricing for moderate snowfall but still meaningful odds for extreme totals. The 74% probability ($0.74) assigned to 10+ inches suggests markets expect this storm to exceed typical winter weather, potentially causing widespread travel disruptions and business closures Monday as extreme cold lingers for at least a week after the storm passes.
