The Kansas Senate race 2026 is polling like a coin flip, yet Polymarket and Kalshi both still price Roger Marshall at 61¢, while the Kansas Governor race 2026 leans more firmly Republican with Ty Masterson at 77¢.
- Roger Marshall, Adam Hamilton, Ty Masterson and Cindy Holscher all have live Kansas Governor election and Senate contracts on both exchanges, and both platforms also list a Governor-Senate combo market.
- Hamilton vs Marshall polls run from a 5-point Marshall lead in co/efficient's September survey to a 3-point Hamilton edge in YouGov's, while Masterson vs Holscher polls show Masterson ahead in the latest public surveys, though a Democratic-aligned poll has that race tied.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Kansas Governor election and Kansas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits in the Kansas Senate race 2026 and Kansas Governor race 2026 on both platforms with just over a week left before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (61¢) | $163.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (41¢) | $243.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (61¢) | $163.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Kansas Governor Election and Kansas Senate Race 2026 Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Kansas contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both the Kansas Senate market and the Kansas Governor market resolve on the winner of the November 3 general election, and traders can buy or sell positions at any point before then.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one candidate is a loss for the other in each two-way race.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
Polymarket labels the Senate race Lean R and prices Marshall at 61¢, a 61% implied chance, even though Cook Political Report and Sabato's Crystal Ball both now rate it a toss-up.
Roger Marshall (YES 61¢ / NO 41¢, -1 pts)
Marshall gave back 1 point, even with a Trump rally in Park City on October 19 and $14 million from the Senate Leadership Fund in his corner.
A Red Box Research poll published Monday has him up 46-45, but YouGov had Hamilton ahead 48-45, Times/Siena found a 45-45 tie and InsiderAdvantage had the race within a point, which is why Hamilton vs Marshall polls are doing more work than usual on this board.
Adam Hamilton (YES 41¢ / NO 61¢, +<1 pts)
Hamilton ticked up less than a point, and his case rests on independents and money.
Emerson found him leading independents 42% to 27% in its 45-43 result, and he is the founding pastor of Leawood's Church of the Resurrection, running as an independent-minded Democrat with the backing of two former Republican governors. He has also held a fundraising edge over Marshall.
Kansas hasn't elected a Democrat to the Senate since 1932, which is the history that keeps his price well below his polling.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
The Kansas Governor race 2026 board is far steadier than the Senate one, with Polymarket labeling it Likely R and pricing Masterson at 77¢, a 77% implied chance.
Ty Masterson (YES 77¢ / NO 24¢, +1 pts)
Masterson gained 1 point, helped by the Trump endorsement, a lead in most Masterson vs Holscher polls and a Lean Republican rating from Cook and Sabato.
Emerson had him ahead 51-44, Times/Siena 49-44 and YouGov 47-44, and the RealClearPolling average sat at Masterson +5.7 in early October.
The new Red Box Research survey narrows it to 48-46, though, and unaffiliated voters, who outnumber registered Democrats in Kansas by more than 50,000, are the group both campaigns are chasing.
Cindy Holscher (YES 24¢ / NO 77¢, -1 pts)
Holscher slipped 1 point even as her side pushes a tied race. A Democratic-aligned Global Strategy Group poll released by her campaign shows a 47-47 deadlock and has Masterson at 37% favorable and 44% unfavorable.
Her campaign says Masterson and his allies have put $20 million into ads, and Emerson's 40% favorable and 44% unfavorable read on him is the opening Democrats see.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and Kalshi's Senate market has already topped $4.9 million in volume while the Governor market sits near $333,000.
Kansas Senate Race 2026
Kalshi matches Polymarket on Marshall at 61¢, a 61% implied chance, and its own margin forecast is Republican +1.3, a gap that sits inside the margin of error of nearly every poll.
Roger Marshall (YES 61¢ / NO 40¢, -1 pts)
Marshall dropped 1 point on Kalshi, matching the move on Polymarket, and 61¢ is a long way from the 82.8% Kalshi had on him on September 5.
The slide tracks the ratings: Cook moved the race to a toss-up on October 6 and Sabato's Crystal Ball followed on October 14, while the Senate Leadership Fund's $14 million is outpacing the $5 million from Senate Majority PAC.
Adam Hamilton (YES 40¢ / NO 61¢, +1 pts)
Hamilton gained 1 point, though Kalshi prices him a cent below Polymarket.
Wedgewood had him up 50-48 and Trafalgar had him ahead 44.4% to 43.5%, with Libertarian David Graham drawing between 2% and 5% in various polls.
The caution has a history: the final Times/Siena poll in 2020 had Marshall up 4 points, and he won by more than 11.
Kansas Governor Race 2026
Kalshi's Governor board is level with Polymarket on both candidates, and its margin forecast has the Republican up 4.9 points.
Ty Masterson (YES 77¢ / NO 24¢, +2 pts)
Masterson gained 2 points on Kalshi, the biggest move on any of the four standalone boards, and the R+4.9 forecast is close to the RealClearPolling average and the 5-point Times/Siena margin.
Ticket splitting is his edge: Emerson found independents breaking for Masterson 47% to 45% in the same survey that had them backing Hamilton by 15 points.
Cindy Holscher (YES 24¢ / NO 77¢, -2 pts)
Holscher dropped 2 points on Kalshi, even with her campaign pointing to its own poll showing 54% of likely voters backing her or open to doing so.
Emerson found Graham's Senate voters breaking 65% to 31% for Masterson in the Governor race, a drag on any Democratic ticket-wide wave.
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Kansas Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Republican sweep is the clear favorite at 57¢ on both platforms, a Masterson win paired with a Hamilton win is next at 24¢ to 25¢, and the Democratic sweep trails at 19¢ to 20¢.
Both platforms price all four possible pairings, though Kalshi's combo market is thin at about $91,000 in total volume.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 57¢ | NO 44¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 24¢ | NO 77¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 20¢ | NO 81¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 3¢ | NO 98¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Roger Marshall win (GOP sweep) | YES 57¢ | NO 44¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ty Masterson and Adam Hamilton win (split ticket) | YES 25¢ | NO 76¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Adam Hamilton win (Dem sweep) | YES 19¢ | NO 82¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Cindy Holscher and Roger Marshall win (split ticket) | YES 3¢ | NO 98¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election
The two boards agree on both favorites. Marshall sits at YES 61¢ on Polymarket and YES 61¢ on Kalshi, while Masterson is at YES 77¢ on both.
The underdogs tell nearly the same story. Hamilton trades at YES 41¢ on Polymarket and YES 40¢ on Kalshi, and Holscher is at YES 24¢ on both, so the only gap on the standalone boards is a single cent on Hamilton.
That cent is small enough to read as noise rather than a signal, and the combo boards back that up, with the GOP sweep at YES 57¢ on both exchanges.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the surveys. Hamilton vs Marshall polls have ranged from a 5-point Marshall lead in co/efficient's September survey to Hamilton leads of 2 and 3 points in Wedgewood and YouGov, yet neither board has Marshall below YES 61¢.
Masterson vs Holscher polls show a similar spread, from Emerson's 7-point Masterson lead to Global Strategy Group's 47-47 tie, but both markets still treat Masterson as a strong favorite at YES 77¢.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is in how the boards are quoted: Kalshi shows explicit YES and NO prices on both standalone races, while Polymarket's Senate and Governor boards quote only each candidate's own YES price, which is why the NO prices above are derived.
Kansas Governor Election and Kansas Senate Race Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Senate board is the one in motion. Marshall slipped 1 point on both exchanges while Hamilton gained 1 point on Kalshi and less than a point on Polymarket, extending a slide that began when Kalshi had Marshall at 82.8% in early September.
The Kansas Governor election is moving the other way. Masterson gained 1 point on Polymarket and 2 on Kalshi even as a Democratic-aligned poll shows a tie, which suggests traders are leaning on the public polling average rather than campaign-released numbers.
That split is what the combo board prices. A Masterson win paired with a Hamilton win at 24¢ on Polymarket and 25¢ on Kalshi is a bigger bet than a Democratic sweep at 20¢ and 19¢, which fits Emerson's finding that Hamilton leads independents by 15 points while Masterson leads them by 2.
Add the two Masterson pairings and the combo boards imply 81¢ on Polymarket and 82¢ on Kalshi for a Masterson win, above his 77¢ Governor price, a gap worth discounting given how thin the combo market is.
The next round of Hamilton vs Marshall polls and Masterson vs Holscher polls is the likeliest trigger for a repricing, along with early voting turnout. Johnson County officials reported 12,600 ballots cast on a single Saturday, a pace they compared to a presidential year, and every county must offer in-person advance voting by Tuesday, October 27, which is also the advance mail ballot request deadline.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Roger Marshall | YES (61¢) | $163.93 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Polymarket | Adam Hamilton | YES (41¢) | $243.90 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Roger Marshall | YES (61¢) | $163.93 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Senate Race | Kalshi | Adam Hamilton | YES (40¢) | $250.00 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Ty Masterson | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Polymarket | Cindy Holscher | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Ty Masterson | YES (77¢) | $129.87 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kansas Governor Race | Kalshi | Cindy Holscher | YES (24¢) | $416.67 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
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Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026: Final Thoughts
This is two Republican-favored races priced with very different levels of risk: the Kansas Senate race 2026, where Hamilton vs Marshall polls are a coin flip, Cook and Sabato both say toss-up and both exchanges still have Marshall at 61¢, and the Kansas Governor race 2026, where Masterson has led most Masterson vs Holscher polls and sits at 77¢.
Watch the combo board for the clearest read on how traders see the two races landing together. A Republican sweep at 57¢ is the dominant outcome on both exchanges, but a Masterson and Hamilton split is the live alternative, and the final batch of polling and early voting turnout is the likeliest thing to change that picture before November 3.
Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Election FAQs
What are the current Kansas Senate race 2026 odds?
Roger Marshall is trading at 61¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Adam Hamilton sits at 41¢ on Polymarket and 40¢ on Kalshi.
What are the current Kansas Governor race 2026 odds?
Ty Masterson is trading at 77¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Cindy Holscher sits at 24¢ on both.
What do the latest Hamilton vs Marshall polls show?
The polls are tight. YouGov has Hamilton ahead 48-45, Wedgewood has him up 50-48, Emerson has him up 45-43 and Times/Siena shows a 45-45 tie, while a new Red Box Research poll has Marshall ahead 46-45 and a September co/efficient poll had Marshall up 49-44.
What do the latest Masterson vs Holscher polls show?
Emerson has Masterson ahead 51-44, Times/Siena has him up 49-44, YouGov has him up 47-44 and a new Red Box Research poll has him up 48-46, while a Democratic-aligned Global Strategy Group poll released by Holscher's campaign shows a 47-47 tie.
How do Hamilton vs Marshall polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets are more confident than the polling average suggests, with both exchanges keeping Marshall at 61¢ even though several recent surveys show Hamilton ahead or tied.
Are Masterson vs Holscher polls tightening before Election Day?
The picture is mixed. The new Red Box Research poll narrows Masterson's lead to 2 points and Holscher's campaign shows a tie, but Emerson, Times/Siena and YouGov all have Masterson ahead, and he gained 1 point on Polymarket and 2 on Kalshi.
Do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Kansas Governor election differently?
No. The two boards are level at 77¢ for Masterson and 24¢ for Holscher. The only gap on the standalone boards is a cent on Hamilton in the Senate race, 41¢ on Polymarket and 40¢ on Kalshi, which usually reflects different trader bases and order-book depth.
What do the Kansas Governor-Senate combo bets show?
Polymarket prices a Masterson and Marshall sweep at 57¢, a Masterson and Hamilton split at 24¢, a Holscher and Hamilton sweep at 20¢ and a Holscher and Marshall split at 3¢. Kalshi has the same four outcomes at 57¢, 25¢, 19¢ and 3��.
When does early voting start for the Kansas Governor election?
Early voting is already under way in some counties, including Johnson County, and every Kansas county must offer in-person advance voting by October 27. Election Day is November 3.
How do I trade the Kansas Senate Race 2026 and Kansas Governor Race 2026 odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the Kansas Senate race 2026 or Kansas Governor race 2026 contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
