Michigan Senate race odds moved four points toward Abdul El-Sayed on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while the Michigan Governor race still has Jocelyn Benson priced above 90¢ on each exchange.
- El-Sayed, Rogers, Benson and James all have live contracts on Polymarket and Kalshi for the Michigan Governor election and the Senate race, and both exchanges also list a Governor-Senate combo board.
- The newest El Sayed vs Rogers polls run from a 1-point race to 7-point El-Sayed leads, while the latest Benson vs James polls have her ahead by 3 to 12 points.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
Here's exactly where the money sits on both platforms three days before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (8¢) | $1,250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (6.3¢) | $1,587.30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (75¢) | $133.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (27¢) | $370.37 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (75¢) | $133.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Michigan Governor Election and Michigan Senate Race Polymarket Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Michigan contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
Both contracts settle on the result of the November 3 general election. Polymarket's own labels read Safe D for the Governor race and Lean D for the Senate race, the same Senate call Sabato's Crystal Ball made on September 22.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price. Treat them as approximations, since the pairing ignores any third-party candidates on the ballot.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Polymarket has Benson at 93¢, a 93% implied chance, and she has led every September and October poll in the RealClearPolitics average.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 93¢ / NO 8¢, -<1 pts)
Benson slipped by less than a point on the board, even though a CNN/SSRS poll released Thursday had her ahead of James 53% to 41% among likely voters. That 12-point gap roughly matches Monday's Michigan State University result.
The tighter end of the Benson vs James polls is a co/efficient survey from October 21 to 23 that had her up 47% to 44%, and the Glengariff Group's October 19 to 22 poll had her at 51.4% to 44.5%, so the price reads as a margin of safety rather than a forecast of a blowout.
John James (YES 8¢ / NO 93¢)
James is at 8¢ and has not led the RealClearPolitics average at any point since it began tracking the race on July 31, even after Trump's October 25 rally in Port Huron and Vice President JD Vance's October 27 stop in Howell.
He used both events to argue that Benson would mean eight more years of rising costs, while Michigan Democratic Party Chair Curtis Hertel answered that Republicans were tied to tariffs, the war in Iran and health care cuts.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
El-Sayed gained 4 points to 75¢ on Polymarket, and the newest CNN poll shows why traders have been willing to pay up.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 75¢ / NO 27¢, +4 pts)
CNN's SSRS survey, fielded October 20 to 27 among 768 likely voters, had El-Sayed ahead of Rogers 49% to 42% with a 4.7-point margin of error. It found him consolidating 95% of Democratic likely voters, up from 90% in September.
That lead is wider than the 3.2-point RealClearPolitics average of 48.8% to 45.6%, which still carries older, closer El Sayed vs Rogers polls. Sabato's Crystal Ball has rated the race Leans Democratic since September 22, though it cautioned that a progressive nominee could run behind a typical Democrat this year.
Mike Rogers (YES 27¢ / NO 75¢, -3 pts)
Rogers lost 3 points as CNN found half of likely voters view him unfavorably, up from 42% in September. The same poll found 57% of his supporters describe their vote as one against El-Sayed rather than for Rogers, a reversal from earlier in the campaign.
Rogers has said his own outreach shows Democrats defecting, and CNN's analysis pointed to signs that some discouraged Republicans are tuning out the race, so turnout on each side is the real question behind a 27¢ price.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Kalshi Odds
Kalshi lists the same two races as regulated event contracts, and both Yes and No trade on every line, so its board quotes an actual price on each side rather than a derived one.
Both contracts resolve by winning party on November 3, and the Senate market has traded more than $16.6 million in volume, far deeper than the $708,380 on the Governor board.
Michigan Governor Race 2026
Kalshi has Benson a point above Polymarket at 94¢, and its margin forecast has the Democrat up 10.5 points.
Jocelyn Benson (YES 94¢ / NO 6.1¢, +1 pts)
Benson gained a point on Kalshi, where the 10.5-point forecast sits well above a polling average of roughly 7 points and closer to the 12-point leads in the CNN and Michigan State surveys.
Former President Barack Obama joined Benson and El-Sayed at a Detroit rally on October 24, part of a late push to energize the Democratic base as early voting got underway.
John James (YES 6.3¢ / NO 93.8¢, -1.3 pts)
James lost 1.3 points, the biggest move on Kalshi's Governor board, and now trades 1.7¢ below his Polymarket price.
The board also still lists former Detroit mayor Mike Duggan at 0.3%, though he ended his independent campaign on May 21, which is why Kalshi's Governor prices are not a pure head-to-head.
Michigan Senate Race 2026
Kalshi now matches Polymarket on El-Sayed at 75¢, with a margin forecast of Democrat +3.0.
Abdul El-Sayed (YES 75¢ / NO 26¢, +4 pts)
El-Sayed gained 4 points on Kalshi, and the 3-point forecast lines up closely with the RealClearPolitics average while sitting well below the 7-point leads in the CNN and Mitchell polls.
Obama's rally was aimed in part at Black voters, where a YouGov survey had El-Sayed ahead 84% to 11%, roughly in line with the 2024 exit polls. Rogers has said he is making inroads in Detroit.
Mike Rogers (YES 26¢ / NO 75¢, -4 pts)
Rogers lost 4 points and trades a cent below Polymarket after a week of national help: Trump's rally in Port Huron, the first by a sitting president in St. Clair County's history, and Vance's stop in Howell, where he called Michigan the most important contest of the midterms.
The backdrop is a cost-of-living fight. AAA had Michigan's average gas price at $4.76 a gallon on October 27, about 50 cents above the national average, and Democrats have tied it to the Iran war.
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Michigan Governor-Senate Combo Bets
Both exchanges let traders bet on how the two races land together, pairing a Governor outcome with a Senate outcome in a single contract.
A Democratic sweep is the favorite at 74¢ on both boards, a Benson win paired with a Rogers win is next at 18¢ on Polymarket and 20¢ on Kalshi, and the two outcomes involving a James win trade at 7¢ or less.
The Democratic sweep gained 8 points on Polymarket, while Kalshi's chance column shows it up 4 points and the Benson and Rogers split ticket down 8. Polymarket labels each line by party and Kalshi names the candidates, but the four pairings are the same.
Kalshi's combo board has traded $92,390 in volume, and its James and El-Sayed line has a 2¢ YES price but no NO bid at the moment.
| 🏢 Platform | 🗳️ Outcome | ✅ YES | ❌ NO | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 74¢ | NO 27¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 18¢ | NO 83¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 6¢ | NO 95¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | NO 99¢ | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Abdul El-Sayed win (Dem sweep) | YES 74¢ | NO 28¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson and Mike Rogers win (split ticket) | YES 20¢ | NO 81¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Mike Rogers win (GOP sweep) | YES 7¢ | NO 95¢ | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | John James and Abdul El-Sayed win (split ticket) | YES 2¢ | No bid yet | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race
The two boards agree on every favorite, and El-Sayed is priced identically on both. Benson sits at YES 93¢ on Polymarket and YES 94¢ on Kalshi, while El-Sayed is at YES 75¢ on both.
The underdogs show the only real gaps. James trades at YES 8¢ on Polymarket and YES 6.3¢ on Kalshi, and Rogers is at YES 27¢ and YES 26¢, respectively.
Both exchanges moved the same way in the Senate race. El-Sayed gained 4 points on each board, and Rogers lost 3 on Polymarket and 4 on Kalshi, which leaves the Michigan Senate race priced as a clear lean rather than a coin flip.
The markets and the surveys are in step on the Michigan Governor election. Benson vs James polls show her ahead by 3 to 12 points in the latest releases, and neither board has her below YES 93¢.
El Sayed vs Rogers polls are less tidy, running from InsiderAdvantage's 1-point race to 7-point leads in CNN and Mitchell, and both markets sit at YES 75¢, between the 3.2-point RealClearPolitics average and the biggest leads.
Where the platforms genuinely differ is depth and contract design: Kalshi's Senate board has traded more than $16.6 million, its Governor board still carries Duggan on its chart, and its James and El-Sayed combo line has no NO bid, while Polymarket's combo board uses party labels where Kalshi names the candidates.
Michigan Governor Election Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
The Senate board did the moving. El-Sayed gained 4 points on both exchanges and Rogers lost 3 to 4, while the Michigan Governor election barely budged, with Benson down less than a point on Polymarket and up 1 on Kalshi.
Three polls released since October 26 have each put El-Sayed ahead by 6 or 7 points: Glengariff, Mitchell and CNN. The RealClearPolitics average is lower at 3.2 points because it still carries earlier surveys such as Marist's 50% to 48% result and InsiderAdvantage's 47% to 46%, which keeps the El Sayed vs Rogers polls tilted his way even as the margins vary.
The Governor backdrop is steadier. CNN has Benson up 12, Glengariff up 7 and Marist up 6 among likely voters, and the lowest recent number, co/efficient's 3 points, still has her ahead, which is why the Michigan Governor race trades like a finished contest.
The combo boards add one more read. Polymarket's two Rogers pairings add up to 24¢, 3¢ below his 27¢ standalone price, while Kalshi's two James pairings add up to 9¢, 2.7¢ above his 6.3¢ standalone price. Both gaps are worth discounting given how thin the combo markets are.
Turnout is the other variable. As of Thursday, 1,704,715 Michigan voters had returned ballots, about 23% of 7,412,507 active registered voters, including 1,346,372 absentee ballots and 358,343 early in-person votes. That is up from 18.8% on Tuesday and 16.4% on Monday, but Michigan does not report the party of early voters, so the totals do not show who is ahead.
With three days left, the weekend early voting totals and any last Benson vs James polls and El-Sayed vs Rogers polls are the likeliest triggers for a repricing. Statewide early voting ends Sunday, November 1, and clerks cannot tabulate any ballots until polls close at 8 p.m. local time on Election Day, so the boards may stay volatile into election night.
| 🗳️ Race | 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | Jocelyn Benson | YES (93¢) | $107.53 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Polymarket | John James | YES (8¢) | $1,250.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | Jocelyn Benson | YES (94¢) | $106.38 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Governor Race | Kalshi | John James | YES (6.3¢) | $1,587.30 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (75¢) | $133.33 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Polymarket | Mike Rogers | YES (27¢) | $370.37 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Abdul El-Sayed | YES (75¢) | $133.33 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Michigan Senate Race | Kalshi | Mike Rogers | YES (26¢) | $384.62 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
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- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race: Final Thoughts
The Michigan Governor race is priced like a finished contest, with Benson at 93¢ to 94¢, while the Michigan Senate race has the market's attention: El-Sayed rose to 75¢ on both exchanges even though the polls still span 1 to 7 points.
Watch the final weekend's early voting totals and any last-minute polls for the clearest read. A Democratic sweep at 74¢ on both combo boards is now the dominant outcome, and the closing round of polling is the most likely thing to move that number before November 3.
Michigan Governor Race and Michigan Senate Race FAQs
What are the current Michigan Governor race odds?
Jocelyn Benson is trading at 93¢ on Polymarket and 94¢ on Kalshi, while John James sits at 8¢ on Polymarket and 6.3¢ on Kalshi.
Who is favored to win the Michigan Senate race?
Abdul El-Sayed is the favorite at 75¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, with Mike Rogers priced at 27¢ on Polymarket and 26¢ on Kalshi.
What do the latest Benson vs James polls show?
A CNN/SSRS poll released October 29 has Benson ahead 53% to 41% among likely voters, a Michigan State University survey has her up 53.3% to 40.9%, and a Glengariff Group poll for The Detroit News and WDIV has her at 51.4% to 44.5%. The tightest recent result is co/efficient's 47% to 44%.
What do the latest El Sayed vs Rogers polls show?
CNN/SSRS has El-Sayed ahead 49% to 42%, Mitchell Research has him up 51% to 44%, Glengariff has him at 51.4% to 45.1%, and InsiderAdvantage had a 47% to 46% race. The RealClearPolitics average has him ahead by 3.2 points.
How do Benson vs James polls compare to Polymarket and Kalshi pricing?
The markets and the polls are in step. Recent surveys have Benson ahead by 3 to 12 points, and both exchanges price her at 93¢ or 94¢ with James at 8¢ or less.
Are El Sayed vs Rogers polls moving before Election Day?
The newest surveys mostly favor El-Sayed. Mitchell's lead grew from 4.2 points in early October to 7 points on October 27, CNN's moved from 3 points in early September to 7 points, and both exchanges now price him at 75¢.
Why do Polymarket and Kalshi price the Michigan races slightly differently?
The boards match on El-Sayed at 75¢ and are within a cent on Benson and Rogers, with James at 8¢ on Polymarket and 6.3¢ on Kalshi the widest gap. Small differences like that usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
What do the Michigan Governor-Senate combo bets show?
A Benson and El-Sayed sweep trades at 74¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, a Benson and Rogers split at 18¢ and 20¢, a James and Rogers sweep at 6¢ and 7¢, and a James and El-Sayed split at 2¢ on both.
When does early voting end for the Michigan Governor election?
Statewide early in-person voting ends Sunday, November 1, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3, with polls open from 7 a.m. to 8 p.m. local time. As of Thursday, October 29, 1,704,715 Michigan voters had already returned ballots, about 23% of active registered voters.
How do I trade the Michigan Governor race and Michigan Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a "Yes" or "No" share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
