Polymarket TD Props: Best Anytime TD Scorers for Falcons vs Packers on TNF

Week 3 opens at Lambeau Field, and Polymarket has a full anytime touchdown scorer board priced for it. The Atlanta Falcons-Green Bay Packers NFC showdown on Amazon Rpime Video kicks off at 8:15 p.m. ET on Thursday, with 25 players carrying tradable Yes contracts ranging from 56% all the way down to 2%.

Bijan Robinson sits alone at the top after touching the ball on 65.9% of his snaps in the season opener, the highest rate of his career. Christian Watson has scored in both Green Bay games. Drake London finally gets a real quarterback throwing to him with Michael Penix Jr. returning from a torn ACL, and Tucker Kraft draws a Falcons defense that just surrendered two touchdowns to a veteran tight end.

Below is the full board ranked by price, the highest implied probability first, followed by a breakdown of the eight contracts that matter most. Every figure comes straight off the Polymarket board.

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Atlanta Falcons vs Green Bay Packers Prediction

This is not a game the market expects to be full of touchdowns. Green Bay is favored by roughly six points with a total parked in the low 40s, which is why only one contract on the entire board sits above 40%.

Atlanta arrives 0-2 with the worst offense in football by EPA per play and the dubious distinction of being the only team yet to reach the red zone through two weeks. Green Bay is 1-1 after a 39-22 loss at Minnesota and a 20-17 overtime escape at the Jets, and its own offense ranks 28th by the same measure.

The two changes that matter for this board are Penix taking over at quarterback for Atlanta and Jayden Reed being ruled out for Green Bay, which thins a receiving corps that was already banged up. Both push touchdown equity around in ways the prices have only partly absorbed.

Additionally, you can find more of our Falcons vs. Packers best bets here.

Best RB Touchdown Prop Today – Bijan Robinson

Robinson is the Atlanta offense right now, and that is not a compliment to the rest of it. He has handled 48 touches in two games, drew 10 targets in the opener alone, and scored the Falcons' only rushing touchdown of the season in the first quarter at Pittsburgh.

The matchup is the problem. Green Bay has allowed just 2.9 yards per carry through two weeks, a mark only the Chargers have bettered, and Jonathan Gannon's front has already generated seven sacks. Robinson's path to the end zone may well run through the passing game, where he averaged 53.7 receiving yards per outing in Penix's starts last season.

At 56% (56¢) this is the only contract on the board the market treats as closer to a coin flip than a longshot, and it reads about right rather than generous. Sportsbooks have been pricing the same outcome nearer 61%, so the exchange is actually the cheaper venue here.

A $100 position at 56¢ buys roughly 179 shares, each worth $1.00 if he scores. Taker fees and the depth available on the order book mean the realized net lands a little under the headline number.

• If Bijan Robinson finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $78.57 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

That works out to roughly a 1.79x payout multiple, the shortest price on the board and the one contract here built for reliability rather than upside.

Best Green Bay Touchdown Prop Today – Christian Watson

Three touchdowns in two games is the entire case, and it is a strong one. Watson has caught at least four passes in each outing and found the end zone in both, all while hauling in only 10 of 19 targets, which tells you how much of his value is concentrated in big plays rather than volume.

Reed's absence hands him and Matthew Golden the receiving room, and Atlanta is missing cornerback A.J. Terrell, its best cover man. The caveat worth knowing is that Watson has been playing through discomfort, though he carries no designation on the final injury report.

The board has him at 37% (37¢), which is the second-shortest price here and still looks fair rather than rich for the only player in this game scoring at better than a touchdown per week. A $100 buy gets about 270 shares.

• If Christian Watson finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $170.27 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 2.70x multiple on the hottest scorer in the game, which is the cleanest risk and reward balance on the whole board.

Today's Editor Pick for Polymarket TD Prop – Drake London

Here is the Editor's Pick, and the reasoning is about stale information rather than a hot streak. London's price was built during two weeks of Cooper Rush and Jack Strand, a stretch in which Atlanta's entire wide receiver and tight end group managed 17 catches, 173 yards and zero touchdowns, the worst marks of any such unit in the league.

Penix changes the inputs. London is his preferred target, and he now faces a Green Bay defense that drops into zone on close to 80% of snaps, a coverage shell London has feasted on, rating fourth among receivers against zone in 2025 and eighth so far in 2026 with replacement-level quarterbacks throwing to him.

At 33% (33¢) the market is charging London a discount for his quarterback room, and the quarterback room just improved. Add a projected negative game script as a road underdog and the volume should follow.

A $100 position at 33¢ buys roughly 303 shares. Fees and order book depth shave a little off the realized net when the position fills.

• If Drake London finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $203.03 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Better than a 3x payout multiple on a $110 million receiver whose price reflects his backup quarterbacks, and that is the widest gap between price and projected role anywhere on this board.

Best Polymarket Tight End TD Prop Today – Tucker Kraft

Kraft scored six times in eight games before a season-ending injury in 2025, and 13 times across his last 26 games going back to 2024. He is fully back in the rotation, playing 98.3% of Green Bay's snaps in Week 2 after 66% in the opener.

Atlanta's defense just watched Carolina's Darren Waller score twice against it, which is the sort of result that repeats when a tight end runs this many routes. Kraft ranks 13th among all tight ends in routes run and has drawn nine targets from Jordan Love already.

The honest counterweight is that he has not seen a single red zone target yet in 2026, which is why 32% (32¢) is not the steal it might look like on the surface. Call it fair with real upside if Green Bay finally scripts him into scoring position.

Roughly 313 shares for a $100 buy, each settling at $1.00 on a Yes. Taker fees mean the net comes in slightly below the posted figure.

• If Tucker Kraft finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $212.50 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 3.13x payout multiple, and the profile of a player whose touchdown rate historically outruns his target share.

Best Value Touchdown Prop Today – Matthew Golden

Golden has been the most consistent pass catcher in this game and has nothing to show for it in the end zone. He opened with six catches for 95 yards on 12 targets and a 31% target share, then led the team again in Week 2 with four grabs for 58 yards.

Volume like that generally converts eventually, and Reed's absence only concentrates it further. The second-year Texas product has cleared four receptions and 50 yards in both games while running a route on 87% of Love's dropbacks in the opener.

At 31% (31¢) he is priced a tick behind Kraft despite arguably the better claim on targets, and that reads light for a player operating as the clear number two in a suddenly short-handed receiving room.

Roughly 323 shares for $100, with the usual small haircut once fees and available depth are accounted for.

• If Matthew Golden finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $222.58 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 3.23x payout multiple on a high-volume receiver still waiting for his first score of the year.

Best Green Bay RB Touchdown Prop Today – Kaleb Johnson

Green Bay's backfield is the most interesting pricing puzzle on the board, and the market has quietly moved Johnson to the front of it. Acquired in a trade from Pittsburgh just before the season, he did not take a single offensive snap in Week 1, then led the team in carries in Week 2 with eight for 32 yards.

Matt LaFleur has said publicly that Johnson will get more work as he gets comfortable, and Johnson took 10 of his snaps on designed run downs against the Jets. With Josh Jacobs on the Commissioner's Exempt List, somebody has to own the goal line, and Johnson is the best schematic fit of the three.

The 31% (31¢) price is level with Golden's and three cents clear of MarShawn Lloyd, which is the market saying it believes the coaching staff. Ball security is the live risk after Johnson's fumble in New York.

About 323 shares on a $100 position, each worth a dollar on a Yes resolution and nothing otherwise.

• If Kaleb Johnson finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $222.58 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

Roughly a 3.23x multiple, and the trade that pays best if Thursday is the night Green Bay finally names a lead back.

Best ATL Tight End Touchdown Prop Today – Kyle Pitts Sr.

Two weeks into the season Pitts has one catch, a 15-yard gain in the home opener. He drew a single target in Week 1 despite playing 38 of Atlanta's 60 snaps, so the issue has been involvement rather than availability.

That is a long way from 2025, when he posted 118 targets, 88 receptions, 928 yards and five touchdowns. Penix's return and an offensive coordinator who has publicly asked for more balance both point toward Pitts being used like the player Atlanta paid.

At 20% (20¢) the board is pricing him closer to a rotational tight end than a former fourth overall pick with a five-touchdown season behind him. That reads light, with the honest acknowledgment that two weeks of one target is evidence, not noise.

A $100 buy at 20¢ is 500 shares, the cleanest math on the board, with fees trimming the realized net slightly.

• If Kyle Pitts Sr. finds the end zone: the trade resolves Yes and pays out $400.00 in profit on the $100 position.
• If he doesn't: the position resolves No and the full $100 is lost, since these contracts settle all-or-nothing.

A clean 5x payout multiple, which is the right shape for a bounce-back on usage rather than a trade on form.

Polymarket has additional NFL touchdown scorer markets live beyond this one, including boards for the full Sunday slate.

How to Trade NFL Touchdown Predictions on Polymarket

Ready to take a position on today's NFL touchdown predictions? You can start trading these event contracts in minutes.

• Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
• Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
• Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of live order book movements as kickoff approaches across the prediction markets hub.

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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and are not a guarantee of future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.

NFL Touchdown Predictions Today: What's Moving the Market

The dominant theme is a board with no expensive contracts. Only Bijan Robinson clears 40%, and eleven players sit at 10% or below, which is what happens when two bottom-five offenses meet with a total in the low 40s.

The Green Bay backfield is the most informative cluster on the page. Kaleb Johnson at 31%, MarShawn Lloyd at 30% and Chris Brooks at 22% is a market refusing to pick a lead back, and it matches a coaching staff that has run a genuine timeshare through two games. The prices that look wrong are Brooks on the high side and Pitts on the low side.

One wrinkle worth understanding before you trade: this market counts rushing, receiving, return and fumble-recovery touchdowns while excluding passing touchdowns. That is why Jordan Love is tradable at 12% despite being a quarterback, and it gives return specialists like Skyy Moore at 15% and rookie Zachariah Branch at 6% a path that does not require the offense to move the ball at all.

Note also that the Yes and No prices on each row add up to slightly more than 100. That gap is the spread between the best available offers on each side, not a pricing error, and taking the Yes at the displayed number means paying the ask. Lineup and injury news can reprice this whole board quickly before kickoff, so it is worth tracking through the prediction market apps.

Falcons-Packers TD Props Predictions: Final Thoughts

This is a cheap board, and cheap boards are a trap if you treat them like a shopping list. Everything from 30¢ down carries a payout multiple above 3x precisely because the market doubts this game produces many touchdowns at all.

The three positions with the clearest arguments are Drake London at 33¢ on the quarterback upgrade, Christian Watson at 37¢ on form, and Kyle Pitts at 20¢ on a usage correction. Chris Brooks at 22¢ is the one to avoid at the current price.

Treat each of these as an independent all-or-nothing position rather than pieces of a parlay. Contracts settle at $1.00 or $0 with nothing in between, so size each stake at what you are willing to lose in full and resist the urge to take five of them at once just because the prices look small.

Falcons-Packers Predictions and Touchdown Props: Polymarket Code ACTION FAQs

What is the current Polymarket promo code and offer?

New traders can claim the current Polymarket welcome offer by signing up with the promo code ACTION which unlocks the ability to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!

What are the best Polymarket touchdown props on the board today?

Drake London at 33 cents is our top position, with Christian Watson at 37 cents and Kyle Pitts Sr. at 20 cents rounding out the three contracts with the strongest arguments relative to their prices.

Which player carries the highest implied probability?

Bijan Robinson at 56 percent, or 56 cents, is the only contract on the Falcons vs Packers board priced above 40 percent. A $100 position returns $78.57 in profit if he scores.

How do Polymarket anytime touchdown contracts work and resolve?

Each contract is a Yes or No share priced in cents that maps directly to implied probability and settles all-or-nothing at $1.00 or $0. This market counts every touchdown a player scores except passing touchdowns, so rushing, receiving, return and fumble-recovery scores all resolve the contract Yes.

Do quarterbacks and return specialists have a real path on this board?

Yes, though only through their legs or a return. Jordan Love at 12 cents and Michael Penix Jr. at 8 cents need a rushing touchdown because passing scores do not count, while returners such as Skyy Moore at 15 cents and Zachariah Branch at 6 cents can resolve Yes on a kick or punt return.

How do I claim the Polymarket code and start trading?

Sign up through Polymarket, complete verification, deposit funds, then open the NFL section and select the Falcons vs Packers anytime touchdown scorer market. From there you choose a player, pick Yes or No, and enter your position size.

When do these contracts settle?

Anytime touchdown contracts settle once the game is final and official NFL scoring information confirms the result, so Thursday night's board resolves shortly after the game at Lambeau Field ends.

What is the Editor's Pick and why?

Drake London at 33 cents. His price was set during two weeks in which Atlanta's receivers and tight ends produced zero touchdowns with backup quarterbacks playing, and Michael Penix Jr.'s return changes the inputs against a Green Bay defense that plays zone on roughly 80 percent of snaps.

Are more markets available beyond this game?

Yes. Polymarket lists additional NFL touchdown scorer markets for the rest of the Week 3 slate, alongside game winner, spread and total contracts for every matchup.