Prediction markets are set to play a major role in the 2026 FIFA World Cup betting boom.
While traditional sportsbooks will still drive most wagers, platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi are adding billions in trading volume and reshaping how people engage with the tournament.
Early projections suggest that prediction markets alone could generate between $2 billion and $2.5 billion in trading activity tied to the World Cup. When combined with traditional sportsbook betting, total global wagering could exceed $55 billion to $65 billion.
In addition to having more matches to bet on, some online sportsbooks like Caesars Palace are offering expanded menus for bettors.
Prediction Markets Are Expanding Fast
Prediction markets allow users to trade contracts based on real-world outcomes, such as which team will win the World Cup.
Unlike traditional bets, users can buy and sell positions throughout the tournament. In the United States, prediction markets are mainly regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
Polymarket has already seen strong activity. The platform recorded more than $1.5 billion in trades on the World Cup winner market alone before the tournament begins. Total volume across all World Cup-related markets is expected to climb even higher as matches are played.
Kalshi is also expected to see significant growth, with projections ranging from $1.47 billion to $1.93 billion in total trading volume.
These platforms appeal to both casual users and experienced traders. They also benefit from continuous trading, which keeps engagement high throughout the event.
Global Betting Could Break Records
Traditional sportsbooks are still expected to generate the largest share of betting activity. Analysts estimate that global betting handle will reach between $50 billion and $60 billion.
The financial services company Macquarie projects that total wagers could exceed $50 billion, with an average of more than $500 million bet per match. H2 Gambling Capital estimates a higher figure of $60 billion, representing a 71% increase over the 2022 World Cup.
The increase is driven by a larger tournament format and broader access to legal betting markets.
A Bigger World Cup Schedule Means More Action
The 2026 World Cup will feature a schedule of 48 teams and 104 matches, up from 32 teams and 64 matches in 2022.
More matches mean more betting opportunities, especially for live betting and in-play markets.
The projection also assumes the contract continues to grow through the group stage and knockout rounds, just as completed champion markets did. That is a reasonable expectation because the World Cup has 48 teams, a wider field of favorites, and a slower path to a final result than a single-elimination bracket. That could help volume build more gradually over time.
Bottom line: This expanded schedule is expected to significantly increase total wagering volume.
US Market Set for Major Growth
The United States is expected to be a key driver of growth in 2026. With matches hosted across North America and more states offering legal sports betting, participation is likely to surge.
Estimates for US betting include:
- $3.3 billion (Deutsche Bank)
- Around $4 billion (industry estimates)
- Up to $4.3 billion (Eilers & Krejcik)
This would mark a sharp increase from the roughly $1.8 billion wagered during the 2022 World Cup.
Major operators such as FanDuel Sportsbook and DraftKings Sportsbook and Casino are expected to capture a large share of this activity. US prediction market growth has been explosive since 2024, far outpacing the more mature sports betting sector in percentage terms, though still smaller in overall scale.
Understanding the Numbers
It is important to note that prediction market volume is not the same as sportsbook handle. The main differences are:
- Sportsbook handle reflects total wagers placed.
- Prediction market volume reflects the total value of trades made.
Because of this difference, the figures are not directly comparable. However, both indicate a strong and growing interest in World Cup betting.
Total Betting Activity Could Reach New Highs
When combining both formats, total global betting activity could surpass $65 billion. In the US alone, combined sportsbook and prediction market participation could reach between $5 billion and $7 billion.
These numbers are based on early projections and may change as the tournament unfolds. Factors such as match outcomes, upsets, and live betting trends will influence final totals.
A Defining Moment for Sports Betting
The 2026 World Cup is expected to be the largest betting event in history. The combination of a larger tournament, North American hosting, and the rise of prediction markets is creating a perfect environment for record-breaking activity.
As more users explore alternatives to traditional sportsbooks, prediction markets could become a lasting part of the global sports betting ecosystem.
