Rays vs. Yankees prediction markets have New York at 61¢ to stay alive in ALDS Game 3 tonight, and the best value on the board sits with two names: Max Fried and Ben Rice. Tampa Bay leads the series 2-0 and can close it out at Yankee Stadium at 8 p.m. ET on TBS and HBO Max. New users can trade every one of these props with the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 and get up to a $2,000 bonus, with the exact amount set by Kalshi's offer terms.
My top prop among Rays vs. Yankees prediction markets is Fried 5+ strikeouts at 47¢, which turns $100 into about $213 if he gets there. Rice to record a hit at 65¢ is the safer anchor.
- Series: Rays won Game 1 1-0 behind eight shutout innings from Drew Rasmussen, then took Game 2 5-2 after New York made four errors, three of them in a first inning that got away from Cam Schlittler. Aaron Judge is off the ALDS roster with a right calf strain.
- Pitching: Fried (5-5, 2.80 ERA) is 5-1 with a 1.81 ERA in seven career starts against Tampa. Nick Martinez (15-6, 3.10 ERA, 1.09 WHIP) owns a 2.38 road ERA and doesn't miss many bats, with 109 strikeouts in 31 starts.
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction Markets: Top Kalshi Player Props for Game 3
Prices below for Rays vs. Yankees are Yes contracts on Kalshi as of Wednesday afternoon, Oct. 7, listed favorite to longshot. If you want to see how these stack up against other platforms, our prediction market promos page lays out every current welcome offer.
| Market | Price (¢) | Profit on $100 | Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried 4+ strikeouts | 67¢ | about $49 | Trade It |
| Ben Rice 1+ hits | 65¢ | about $54 | Trade It |
| Max Fried 5+ strikeouts | 47¢ | about $113 | Trade It |
| Ben Rice 2+ total bases | 43¢ | about $133 | Trade It |
| Ben Rice 1+ home runs | 23¢ | about $335 | Trade It |
Kalshi Promo Code ACTION2000: Get up to $2000 Bonus!
Every price in this piece comes off Kalshi's board, and new users get a welcome bonus on top. Sign up with the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 and you can earn trading credit, up to $2,000. New York and Florida are both on the eligible list, so Yankees fans and Rays fans can each grab it. For a full look at the platform, our Kalshi review covers fees, markets and withdrawals, and the best prediction market apps rundown shows where it ranks.
| Kalshi Promo Code | Kalshi Offer | States Available |
|---|---|---|
| ACTION2000 | Get up to $2000 Bonus! | AK, AL, AR, CA, CO, CT, DC, DE, FL, GA, HI, IA, ID, IN, KS, KY, LA, ME, MN, MO, MS, NC, ND, NE, NH, NJ, NM, NY, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VA, VT, WI, WV, WY |
Best Kalshi Player Props for Rays vs. Yankees Game 3
Max Fried 5+ Strikeouts (47¢)
| Market | Price (¢) | Profit on $100 | Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Max Fried 5+ strikeouts | 47¢ | about $113 | Trade It |
Kalshi has this one close to a coin flip, and I think it's a little short. Fried struck out 24.0% of the hitters he faced this year. If he sees 22 to 24 batters, which is what six innings usually takes, the math lands right around five or six strikeouts.
The matchup helps. Tampa will stack righties against him, and that lineup hit only 36 home runs off lefties all season, tied for the fewest in baseball. Jonathan Aranda is 0-for-4 against Fried this year. Fried has been at his best against this club, with a 1.81 ERA over seven career starts, and he gave up one run in six innings in the Wild Card clincher against Boston.
At 47¢, $100 buys about 212 contracts.
- Win: Fried gets his fifth strikeout and the contracts pay about $213, a $113 profit.
- Lose: He's chased early or Tampa puts the ball in play, and you lose the $100.
Roughly 2.1x your money on a pitcher who's owned this lineup. If you want less risk, Fried 4+ strikeouts sits at 67¢ and pays about $49 profit on $100.
Ben Rice 1+ Hits (65¢)
| Market | Price (¢) | Profit on $100 | Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice 1+ hits | 65¢ | about $54 | Trade It |
Rice has been New York's whole offense. He's 7-for-15 this postseason with four home runs, and he hit both solo shots in Game 2. Outside of Rice and Austin Wells, the Yankees are 1-for-46 in this series.
He's also seen Martinez well. Rice has a .444 average and a 1.323 OPS in 11 career plate appearances against him, and he's projected to hit at the top of the order, which means four or five trips to the plate.
At 65¢, $100 buys about 153 contracts.
- Win: Rice gets one hit and you collect about $154, a $54 profit.
- Lose: Martinez keeps him quiet all night and the $100 is gone.
This is the steadiest piece on the board, about 1.5x your stake.
Ben Rice 2+ Total Bases (43¢)
| Market | Price (¢) | Profit on $100 | Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice 2+ total bases | 43¢ | about $133 | Trade It |
One double clears this. So does any home run. Four of Rice's seven playoff hits have left the park, and Martinez works the zone with soft contact rather than strikeouts, so Rice should get pitches he can drive.
The short porch in right field doesn't hurt a lefty pull hitter, either. At 43¢, Kalshi makes him a bit worse than a coin flip to get there. I'd put it closer to even.
At 43¢, $100 buys about 232 contracts.
- Win: A double, a home run, or two singles, and you take home about $233, a $133 profit.
- Lose: One single or nothing, and the $100 is lost.
About 2.3x your money on the hottest bat in the series.
Ben Rice 1+ Home Runs (23¢)
| Market | Price (¢) | Profit on $100 | Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ben Rice 1+ home runs | 23¢ | about $335 | Trade It |
This is my home run prediction for Game 3. Rice is the priciest home run contract on the board at 23¢, and he's earned it. He has four homers in five playoff games.
Keep the stake small. Martinez carried a 2.25 ERA across two Bronx starts this year, and home run props miss far more often than they hit.
At 23¢, $100 buys about 434 contracts.
- Win: Rice goes deep and you collect about $435, a $335 profit.
- Lose: He stays in the yard and you're out $100.
Better than 4x your stake if he does it again.
Rays vs. Yankees Prediction Markets: Game Lines on Kalshi
Kalshi also posts the game itself. Here's how the board looked Wednesday afternoon. The MLB hub has the rest of tonight's Division Series slate, and our MLB odds page tracks every game.
| Market | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees win Game 3 | 61¢ | 40¢ |
| Rays win Game 3 | 40¢ | 61¢ |
| Yankees win by 2+ runs | 41¢ | 60¢ |
| Rays win by 2+ runs | 28¢ | 73¢ |
| Over 7.5 total runs | 46¢ | 56¢ |
| Over 6.5 total runs | 59¢ | 42¢ |
My lean is the Rays at 40¢, which returns about $250 on $100 ($150 profit), and No on Over 7.5 at 56¢, which returns about $179 ($79 profit). Tampa's bullpen has only covered seven outs in two games, with Edwin Uceta and Cam Booser doing the work, so Kevin Cash has every arm available. A Yankees lineup this cold doesn't scare me into the 7s and 8s.
Full Rays vs. Yankees Kalshi Prop Board
Yes prices on Kalshi as of Wednesday afternoon, safest to longest shot. Only players Kalshi has priced are listed.
Strikeouts
- Max Fried 3+: 82¢
- Max Fried 4+: 67¢
- Nick Martinez 3+: 61¢
- Max Fried 5+: 47¢
- Nick Martinez 4+: 37¢
- Max Fried 6+: 30¢
- Nick Martinez 5+: 23¢
- Max Fried 7+: 18¢
- Nick Martinez 6+: 12¢
1+ Hits
- Yandy Díaz: 67¢
- Ben Rice: 65¢
- Cody Bellinger: 65¢
- Junior Caminero: 64¢
- Jonathan Aranda: 62¢
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 60¢
2+ Total Bases
- Ben Rice: 43¢
- Cody Bellinger: 41¢
- Junior Caminero: 40¢
- Yandy Díaz: 40¢
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 34¢
- Jonathan Aranda: 32¢
1+ Home Runs
- Ben Rice: 23¢
- Junior Caminero: 17¢
- Cody Bellinger: 14¢
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.: 14¢
- Jonathan Aranda: 10¢
- Yandy Díaz: 9¢
What's Moving the Market
The Yankees' lineup card is the big one. Aaron Boone said Tuesday he was weighing changes after two games of almost no offense, and José Caballero could start at third over Ryan McMahon, who's 1-for-7. Chisholm isn't in every projected lineup, so check that his name is on the card before you buy any of his props.
Austin Wells has two home runs in five career plate appearances against Martinez, and Trent Grisham is hitting .667 in eight trips against him, but Kalshi hadn't posted props for either one as of Wednesday afternoon. If those markets open, they're worth a look.
On the other side, Junior Caminero is the one Rays bat priced like a real threat, with his home run contract at 17¢. Rice at 23¢ is the most expensive home run contract on the board, which tells you where the money has gone after Game 2.
How to Trade Rays vs. Yankees Props on Kalshi
- Click the Kalshi promo code ACTION2000 to open Kalshi's sign-up page with the code attached.
- Create your account and make sure ACTION2000 is in the promo code field.
- Verify your identity and fund your account.
- Search "Yankees" and open the Game 3 markets, then pick the strikeout, hit, total bases or home run contract you want.
- Buy Yes or No at the posted price, and check Kalshi's offer terms for how your bonus credit is earned.
New to event contracts? Our guide on how to bet on Kalshi walks through buying, selling and settlement.
Bottom Line
New York's season rides on Fried's left arm tonight, and that's where the Rays vs. Yankees prediction markets offer the most value. Fried 5+ strikeouts at 47¢ is the play, and the Rice ladder lets you pick your risk, from a hit at 65¢ to a home run at 23¢.
Terms and Conditions
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
