The Texas Senate race 2026 polls run from a dead heat to a 6-point Talarico lead this month, yet Polymarket and Kalshi both price Democrat James Talarico at 69¢ against Republican Ken Paxton at 32¢.
Both the Polymarket Texas Senate board and the Texas Senate Kalshi board moved 3 points toward Talarico, even as several Talarico vs Paxton polls landed at a tie or a 2-point margin.
Here is where the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket and Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi money sits, plus what the Texas Senate polls say, before polls close on Tuesday, November 3.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Texas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (69¢) | $141.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (32¢) | $298.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (69¢) | $141.84 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (32¢) | $298.28 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket Texas Senate Odds: Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket Top Trading Contracts
Polymarket's Texas contracts are priced 1¢ to 99¢, mapping directly to implied probability, and a "Yes" share on a candidate settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins the Senate seat and $0 if not.
The market resolves on the winner of the November 3 general election, and traders can sell a position back to the market at any point before then.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their opponent's quoted Yes price. Libertarian Ted Brown is also on the ballot, so those No prices are approximations rather than exact quotes.
James Talarico (YES 69¢ / NO 32¢, +3 pts)
Talarico gained 3 points on the Polymarket Texas Senate board, and the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market now treats the Democrat as a better than 2-to-1 favorite, a 69% implied probability.
The case rests on a lead that shows up in most Texas Senate race 2026 polls: 48-46 in the Emerson College poll for Nexstar, 49-44 in a Cook Political Report battleground survey and 51-47 in a Texas Public Opinion Research poll released October 23. Independents are a big part of it, with TPOR showing him ahead of Paxton 66% to 28% in that group.
Money and turnout also lean his way. Talarico raised $64 million in the third quarter to Paxton's $18 million, and more than 4.5 million Texans voted in the first week of early voting, up 74% from the same point in 2022, according to Newsweek's reporting on Secretary of State figures.
Ken Paxton (YES 32¢ / NO 69¢, -3 pts)
Paxton lost 3 points, but a 32¢ price still implies a 32% chance, and the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket board has reasons not to write him off.
The Talarico vs Paxton polls give him a path. The Fox News poll released October 21 had the two tied at 49% each, after Talarico led 51-49 a month earlier, and Fox said Paxton has consolidated conservatives, rural voters and voters who backed John Cornyn in the primary. President Trump rallied with him in Corpus Christi and Lubbock on October 27, and Governor Greg Abbott and Senator Ted Cruz joined him on the trail over the weekend.
The drag is his image. Fox found his favorability underwater by 17 points, and Cook's Amy Walter wrote that he is roughly twice as unpopular as Trump among Texas voters.
Texas Senate Kalshi Odds: Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the Texas race as a regulated event contract that resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable on every line, so the board shows the full spread on each candidate.
The Texas Senate Kalshi market has drawn $52.7 million in volume, and the exchange's own margin forecast has Democrats up 2.5 points on November 3.
James Talarico (YES 69¢ / NO 32¢, +3 pts)
Kalshi matches Polymarket exactly on Talarico, so the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi board carries the same 69% probability and the same 3-point gain.
The 2.5-point forecast is closer to the polling than the price is. The 11 October polls cited in this piece average out to a Talarico lead of about 3 points, and they include a 45-45 tie from UMass Lowell on October 8, a 47-45 result from Marist on October 14 and a 48-46 reading from the University of Houston Hobby School.
Ken Paxton (YES 32¢ / NO 69¢, -3 pts)
Paxton fell 3 points on Kalshi, matching Polymarket, though 32¢ is still worth about a one-in-three chance.
The Libertarian vote is one swing factor. Emerson's Spencer Kimball said that if Ted Brown's 3% on the final ballot melts away, Paxton likely gains, while if it holds, Talarico benefits.
Republican turnout is the other. Rice University's Mark Jones has cautioned that Democrats leading the first days of early voting does not mean they will lead the whole early period or Election Day, which is the argument keeping a 32¢ Paxton price alive.
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How Polymarket Texas Senate and Texas Senate Kalshi Prices Compare
The two boards are identical on every contract. Talarico sits at YES 69¢ on both exchanges and Paxton sits at YES 32¢ on both, with the same 3-point move on each side.
Kalshi also quotes Talarico at NO 32¢ and Paxton at NO 69¢ directly, the same numbers that Polymarket's derived No prices produce.
The differences are in the details. A $100 trade ticket on Talarico returns $141.84 on Kalshi and $141.00 on Polymarket, while Paxton returns $298.28 and $298.00, gaps of under a dollar that come down to each order book. Kalshi also publishes a margin forecast of Democrats +2.5 and $52.7 million in volume, which Polymarket's board does not show.
The bigger divergence is between the exchanges and the Texas Senate polls. Fox and UMass Lowell both found a tie, and the Cook battleground poll had Talarico up 5, yet neither board prices Talarico below YES 69¢.
Texas Senate Polls Price Analysis: Market Price Influencers
Both exchanges moved the same direction by the same 3 points, which is notable because the polling did not move cleanly. Fox's tie and a one-point narrowing in the TPOR survey suggested a closer race, while Emerson, Cook and the Hobby School kept Talarico ahead by 2 to 5.
The Texas Senate race 2026 polls from earlier in October were wider. The New York Times and Siena had Talarico up 51-45 on October 3, YouGov had him up 50-44 on October 6 and the University of Texas Politics Project had him up 50-47 on October 13.
Turnout is the other driver. More than 4.5 million Texans voted in the first week of early voting, Harris County has led the state in ballots cast, and Polymarket's own board tags the race Lean D. Early voting ends Friday, October 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
The next repricing trigger is the final early-vote count, along with whether Trump's closing push and the Abbott and Cruz appearances move Republican turnout. Another round of Talarico vs Paxton polls before Tuesday could do it too.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (69¢) | $141.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (32¢) | $298.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (69¢) | $141.84 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (32¢) | $298.28 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Texas Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Texas Senate Race 2026 Polls and Odds: Final Thoughts
This is a race the polls call a toss-up and both exchanges call a clear lean, with Polymarket and Kalshi in lockstep at 69¢ for Talarico and 32¢ for Paxton.
The final early-vote totals and Republican Election Day turnout are the likeliest things to close that gap before November 3.
Texas Senate Race 2026 Polls and Odds FAQs
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race?
Democrat James Talarico is the favorite at 69¢ on both Polymarket and Kalshi, while Republican Ken Paxton sits at 32¢ on both.
What do the latest Texas Senate polls show?
The October Texas Senate polls range from a 49-49 tie in the Fox News poll to a 51-45 Talarico lead from The New York Times and Siena, with most surveys showing Talarico ahead by 2 to 5 points.
What do the latest Talarico vs Paxton polls show?
Emerson College had Talarico ahead 48-46, a Cook Political Report battleground poll had him up 49-44 and the Texas Public Opinion Research survey had him up 51-47, while Fox News found a 49-49 tie.
What are the current Polymarket Texas Senate odds?
The Polymarket Texas Senate board has Talarico at 69¢ and Paxton at 32¢, up 3 points and down 3 points, respectively.
Where can I trade the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market?
You can trade the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket market on Polymarket's Texas Senate election event page, or use the switchboard links in this article to jump straight to the order book.
What are the Texas Senate Kalshi odds for Talarico and Paxton?
The Texas Senate Kalshi market has Talarico at 69¢ and Paxton at 32¢, with Kalshi's margin forecast at Democrats +2.5 and more than $52 million in volume.
How does the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi market differ from Polymarket?
The Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi prices match Polymarket exactly, so the differences are structural: Kalshi quotes both Yes and No directly and shows a margin forecast, while Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's Yes price.
Why are the markets more confident than the Texas Senate race 2026 polls?
Polls show a race within a few points, but traders are weighing record early-vote turnout, Talarico's fundraising edge and Paxton's unfavorable ratings, which is why both exchanges price Talarico near 69% despite a tie in some surveys.
When does early voting end in Texas?
Early voting in Texas ends Friday, October 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
How do I trade the Texas Senate race odds?
Sign up on Polymarket or Kalshi, fund your account, and buy a Yes or No share on the contract you want, then hold it to resolution or sell it back to the market at any point before Election Day.
