The Texas Senate race has Democrat James Talarico as a clear favorite on both the Polymarket Texas Senate board and the Texas Senate Kalshi board, at 67¢ and 66¢, respectively.
Talarico vs Paxton polls tell a tighter story, with recent surveys showing the Democrat ahead of Republican Ken Paxton by anywhere from 2 to 6 points.
Both Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket and Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi boards nudged the Republican higher in the latest session, with early voting underway ahead of Tuesday, November 3.
Below you'll find a full breakdown of the current Texas Senate race odds across the exchanges, but if you want to jump straight in, check out the latest Polymarket promo code or the Kalshi promo code.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (67¢) | $145.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (34¢) | $281.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (66¢) | $147.98 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (35¢) | $285.71 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
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Polymarket Texas Senate Race Odds: Top Trading Contracts
The Polymarket Texas Senate market prices each candidate from 1¢ to 99¢, which maps directly to implied probability, and a Yes share settles at $1.00 if that candidate wins and $0 if they lose.
The contract resolves on the winner of the November 3 general election, and traders can sell their shares back to the market at any point before then.
A methodology note: Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices below are derived by pairing each candidate against their head-to-head opponent's quoted Yes price, since a win for one is a loss for the other in this two-way race.
James Talarico (YES 67¢ / NO 34¢, -1 pts)
Talarico is trading at 67¢, a 67% implied probability, after slipping 1 point on the day, and he has spent most of October in the 60s on the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket board.
The polling backs a narrow edge rather than a blowout. The University of Houston's Hobby School had him up 48-46 among likely voters, with independents breaking 60% to 32% his way, and the Texas Politics Project found him ahead 50-47.
A New York Times/Siena survey put the lead at 51-45, and his campaign's latest quarterly fundraising haul reportedly tripled Paxton's.
Ken Paxton (YES 34¢ / NO 67¢, +1 pts)
Paxton gained 1 point to 34¢, a 34% implied probability, which still leaves him well below the summer prices when the Republican was the Polymarket Texas Senate favorite.
His case rests on a polling gap that sits inside the margin of error in several surveys, including CBS News/YouGov's 51-49 result, and on a Republican-heavy electorate: Republicans made up 42% of the Houston poll's respondents against 31% for Democrats.
Trump has headlined recent rallies for him in Denton and San Antonio, and Paxton raised $18 million in the third quarter, more than double his second-quarter total.
Texas Senate Kalshi Odds: Top Trading Contracts
Kalshi lists the race as a regulated event contract that resolves by winning party, with Yes and No both tradable on each line, so the board shows the full spread rather than a single implied number.
Like Polymarket, the market closes out on the November 3 result, and the Texas Senate Kalshi prices sit within a cent of the other exchange on both candidates.
James Talarico (YES 66¢ / NO 35¢, -2 pts)
Talarico dropped 2 points to 66¢, a 66% implied probability, giving back more ground on the Texas Senate Kalshi board than he did on Polymarket during the first week of early voting.
The latest polls keep him in front but not by much. CBS News/YouGov had him ahead 51-49, and Marist showed a 47-45 edge with 6% of likely voters still unsure.
Ken Paxton (YES 35¢ / NO 67¢, +2 pts)
Paxton gained 2 points to 35¢, a 35% implied probability, mirroring Talarico's slide on the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi board.
The board has a small quirk: a Paxton NO at 67¢ costs a cent more than a Talarico YES at 66¢, a gap that comes down to the spread rather than any real disagreement about the race.
Paxton leads among rural voters 66% to 30% and among men 54% to 42% in the Texas Politics Project survey, which is the base he needs to turn out heavily before early voting closes on October 30.
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How Polymarket and Kalshi Compare on the Texas Senate Race
The two boards agree on the favorite. Talarico sits at YES 67¢ on Polymarket and YES 66¢ on Kalshi, while Paxton is at YES 34¢ and YES 35¢, respectively.
The Texas Senate Kalshi board moved twice as far as Polymarket on the day, with a 2-point swing toward Paxton against 1 point on Polymarket, but the gap between the exchanges never exceeds a cent, which reads as noise rather than a signal.
The bigger divergence is between the prices and the polls. Talarico vs Paxton polls have him up 2 to 6 points, inside the margin of error in several surveys, yet both exchanges treat the Democrat as roughly a two-to-one favorite.
There is also a split between traders and voters. A majority of Marist's respondents expected Paxton to win even though Talarico led that poll 47-45.
Both exchanges list a straightforward winner contract on a two-way race, so there is no structural reason for the prices to differ.
Texas Senate Race Price Analysis: Talarico vs Paxton Polls and Market Price Influencers
The Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket board and the Kalshi market both nudged toward Paxton in the latest session, with Polymarket trimming Talarico by 1 point and Kalshi trimming him by 2, which looks like traders pricing in how tight the final stretch has become.
The Talarico vs Paxton polls have been consistent about one thing: Talarico has led most public surveys since the May runoff, usually by low single digits. Independents are the engine, with the Houston poll showing him up 60% to 32% in that group and the Texas Politics Project finding independents breaking his way as well.
Money is the other story. The Texas Senate race is the most expensive contest of the 2026 midterm cycle, and the Texas Tribune reports that nearly $175 million in outside money has gone toward keeping the seat Republican.
Early voting runs through Friday, October 30, so turnout by party and county is the likeliest trigger for a repricing, along with the final round of Trump campaign stops and any late polls that break the 2-to-6-point range.
| 🏢 Platform | 🏷️ Pick | Price | 🤑 Est. Return on $100 | 📈 Trade It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Polymarket | James Talarico | YES (67¢) | $145.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Polymarket | Ken Paxton | YES (34¢) | $281.00 | Trade it on Polymarket! |
| Kalshi | James Talarico | YES (66¢) | $147.98 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
| Kalshi | Ken Paxton | YES (35¢) | $285.71 | Trade it on Kalshi! |
How to Trade the Texas Senate Race on Prediction Markets
Ready to take a position? Check out the best political trading apps and start trading event contracts in minutes on either exchange.
Polymarket
- Read a comprehensive Polymarket review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Polymarket to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Polymarket to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 POLYMARKET TERMS & CONDITIONS
18+ Only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Not available in all jurisdictions. Trading is risky. 100% loss can occur. See polymarket.com/tos for more information. The Polymarket US App serves as an independent software provider and affiliate of Polymarket US and Polymarket Clearing, the CFTC-regulated exchange and clearing organization.
Kalshi
- Read a comprehensive Kalshi review to understand how this exchange operates.
- Follow this guide to trading on Kalshi to learn how to buy your first "Yes" or "No" contract.
- Monitor the relevant tab on Kalshi to stay ahead of the live order book movements.
📝 KALSHI TERMS & CONDITIONS
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions at kalshi.com/tc/55. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Texas Senate Race: Final Thoughts
This is a two-to-one Talarico market on both exchanges, built on a lead of a few points in the Talarico vs Paxton polls that several pollsters put inside the margin of error.
Polymarket and the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi board land within a cent of each other, so the variable to watch is early voting turnout through October 30 and whether Republican turnout closes the gap before November 3.
Texas Senate Race FAQs
Who is favored to win the Texas Senate race?
Democrat James Talarico is the favorite on both exchanges, trading at 67¢ on Polymarket and 66¢ on Kalshi, while Republican Ken Paxton sits at 34¢ and 35¢, respectively.
What do the latest Talarico vs Paxton polls show?
Talarico leads most recent surveys by 2 to 6 points. The University of Houston has him ahead 48-46, CBS News/YouGov has it 51-49, Marist has it 47-45 and the New York Times/Siena poll has it 51-45.
What is the Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket price?
On Polymarket, Talarico is at 67¢ and Paxton is at 34¢, which implies a 67% chance for Talarico and a 34% chance for Paxton. Polymarket's board only quotes each candidate's own Yes price, so the No prices are derived from the opponent's Yes price.
What is the Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi price?
On Kalshi, Talarico trades at 66¢ for Yes and 35¢ for No, while Paxton trades at 35¢ for Yes and 67¢ for No, with Talarico down 2 points and Paxton up 2 on the day.
How do Talarico vs Paxton polls compare to the Polymarket Texas Senate odds?
The prices are more confident than the polling. Talarico's lead in recent surveys is a few points and often inside the margin of error, yet the Polymarket Texas Senate board has him at roughly a two-to-one favorite.
How does Paxton vs Talarico Polymarket pricing compare with the Kalshi market?
The two exchanges are within a cent of each other on both candidates. Small gaps like Talarico at 67¢ versus 66¢ usually reflect different trader bases and order-book depth rather than a real disagreement about the race.
When does early voting end in the Texas Senate race?
Early voting began Monday, October 19 and runs through Friday, October 30, and Election Day is Tuesday, November 3.
When does the Texas Senate Kalshi market resolve?
Kalshi's Texas Senate contract resolves by winning party after the November 3 general election, and Polymarket's market resolves on the winner of the same race.
Where can I trade Talarico vs Paxton Kalshi and Polymarket contracts?
You can trade both contracts through the Trade 'Yes' and Trade 'No' links in this article, which take you to Polymarket or Kalshi, where you can buy a Yes or No share and hold it to resolution or sell it before Election Day.
