Round one of the 2026 US Open is underway at Flushing Meadows, and the marquee American storyline belongs to Taylor Fritz.
The No. 9 seed opens his campaign against wildcard Darwin Blanch, and Polymarket's contracts make the gap between them about as wide as it gets on tour.
A handful of other Americans are also on the board today, and several of their matches carry far better payout odds than Fritz's near-lock price.
Below are the best US Open picks today across four American matchups, along with the current Polymarket promo code: ACTION, which allows new users to Deposit $10, Get a $50 Trading Bonus!
Best Set Handicap Pick Today – Taylor Fritz -2.5 (Editor's Pick)
We're taking a position on Taylor Fritz to win this match by more than 2.5 games, priced at 71¢ on the board, implying a 71% chance.
Fritz enters as the No. 9 seed and world No. 10, riding eight wins in his last ten matches and a title run in Washington this summer.
Blanch is an 18-year-old wildcard ranked 245th, carrying a seven-match losing streak into Arthur Ashe Stadium and just 2 wins in 8 hard-court matches this season.
Given that gap, laying Fritz's moneyline at 95.1¢ leaves almost no margin for error, so we're taking the game handicap instead, where Fritz still needs to be dominant but not flawless.
Our $100 order filled at an average price of 72¢, slightly above the 71¢ board price since a larger order like this moves the market.
That works out to roughly 138.9 shares ($100 ÷ 72¢), each worth $1 if the position resolves in our favor, for a total to-win figure of $138.80.
- If Fritz wins by 3 games or more: the shares pay out $1 each, turning the $100 stake into $138.80, a profit of $38.80.
- If Fritz wins by 2 games or fewer, or loses outright: the entire $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket contracts settle all-or-nothing.
This trade pays out at roughly 1.39x the stake, a modest but meaningful edge over betting the moneyline outright on a heavy favorite.
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Taylor Fritz vs Darwin Blanch Odds: Polymarket Money Line Contracts
Polymarket's moneyline contract resolves based on which player wins the match outright, regardless of score.
With $23.1K already traded, this is by far the most liquid market on the board for this matchup.
Taylor Fritz (95.1%, Yes 95.1¢)
Fritz's price here reflects both the ranking gap and his form, including that Washington title and a run to the 2024 US Open final that still stands as his best major result.
Darwin Blanch (5%, Yes 5.0¢)
Blanch's price is more a reflection of upside variance than genuine form, his lone tour win this season came on grass in Newport and he's lost seven straight since.
Taylor Fritz vs Darwin Blanch Spread and Total Predictions
Beyond the moneyline, Polymarket lists a full board of game, set, and total contracts for this match.
Game Spread: Fritz -7.5 (55¢) / Blanch +7.5 (46¢)
A 7.5-game handicap is a fairly aggressive number for a heavy favorite, and the near-even pricing here suggests the market isn't fully convinced Fritz blows Blanch off the court.
Set Handicap: Fritz -2.5 (71¢) / Blanch +2.5 (31¢)
This is the same line behind our Editor's Pick above, and it remains the cleanest way to back Fritz without paying moneyline prices north of 95¢.
Total Sets: Over 3.5 (31¢) / Under 3.5 (72¢)
The market leans toward this match wrapping up in three sets, consistent with the talent gap between the two players.
Total Games: Over 38.5 (49¢) / Under 38.5 (99¢)
This line shows $0 in trading volume, and the 49¢/99¢ split doesn't add up to a coherent two-sided market, a sign the pricing here hasn't caught up to real order flow yet.
The nearby Completed Match contract (Yes 99¢ / No 99¢) shows the same pattern, treat both as inactive rather than sharp signals until volume shows up.
Taylor Fritz vs Darwin Blanch: Set-by-Set Predictions
Polymarket also breaks out winner and total-games contracts for each individual set, though liquidity here is thin.
- Set 1 (Fritz 88¢, Blanch 15¢; Total Games Over 9.5: 49¢, Under 9.5: 59¢): Fritz's price dips slightly below his match-winner number, a normal pattern since even heavy favorites drop the occasional opening set.
- Set 2 (Fritz 87¢, Blanch 17¢; Total Games Over 8.5: 99¢, Under 8.5: 99¢): Similar pricing to Set 1, with the Total Games line showing the same two-sided-at-99¢ quirk seen elsewhere on this board.
- Set 3 (Fritz 90¢, Blanch 14¢; Total Games Over 8.5: 99¢, Under 8.5: 99¢): If the match reaches a third set, Fritz's experience edge shows up in a slightly higher price than the first two sets.
- Set 4 (Fritz 99¢, Blanch 99¢; Total Games Over 8.5: 99¢, Under 8.5: 99¢): Every line here sits at 99¢ with no real volume behind it, effectively a placeholder market for a fourth set the board doesn't expect to happen.
These deeper-set contracts carry little to no trading volume so far, so treat them as speculative long shots rather than sharp market signals.
This US Open Tennis Run: Why Fritz Is the American to Watch
Fritz arrives at this US Open having won in Washington this summer, part of a stretch that's seen him win 8 of his last 10 matches.
He's also no stranger to the pressure of a home Slam, having reached the 2024 US Open final, still the best Grand Slam result of his career.
A win over Blanch sets up a projected fourth-round meeting with Italy's Flavio Cobolli, with a potential semifinal against top seed Alexander Zverev further down the draw.
Most US Open predictions this week peg Fritz as the American with the clearest path to a deep run, and his own comments suggest he agrees, he's called this his best chance yet to win a major.
This year's US Open tennis field is deep, but few American storylines carry more weight than Fritz's.
For readers tracking the full prediction markets landscape around this tournament, Fritz's path is worth bookmarking well past round one.
Fritz vs Blanch Price Analysis: What's Moving the Market
The 95.1¢ moneyline price is almost entirely a function of the ranking and form gap, Fritz sits at world No. 10 while Blanch is 245th and on a seven-match losing streak.
That same gap is why the Set Handicap and Game Spread lines carry more useful information than the moneyline itself, they ask a sharper question: not just who wins, but by how much.
The Total Games and Completed Match lines showing $0 in volume and odd 49¢/99¢ splits are a reminder that not every contract on a lightly-traded first-round match is fully priced yet.
Anyone browsing the prediction market apps covering this event will see similar patterns on other lopsided first-round matches this week.
More US Open Picks Today: Value on Basavareddy, Zheng & Giron
Fritz's 95.1¢ price doesn't leave much room for a payout, but three other matches among today's us open picks today price out very differently.
Because these three players aren't nearly the favorites Fritz is, the same $100 stake buys a lot more shares, and a lot more upside if the pick hits.
Nishesh Basavareddy vs Tristan Schoolkate
Basavareddy, a 21-year-old who qualified into his second career US Open main draw, is priced at 73¢ on the moneyline against Australia's Tristan Schoolkate.
He already beat Schoolkate in straight sets earlier this year, and his Set Handicap line (Basavareddy -1.5, 61¢) pays out better than the moneyline for essentially the same read on the match.
Fabian Marozsan vs Michael Zheng
Wildcard entrant Michael Zheng is actually favored here at 58¢, not underdog pricing, but it's still far more lucrative than laying Fritz's chalk.
Zheng beat Marozsan in three sets at the Cincinnati Open just weeks ago, and his Set Handicap line (Zheng -1.5, 43¢) offers a better price for backing the same side.
Marcos Giron vs Ignacio Buse
Giron is the clear underdog here at 40¢ against red-hot Peruvian Ignacio Buse, fresh off a title in Winston-Salem and priced at 61¢ on the moneyline.
Backing Giron outright is a real long shot, but his +1.5 Set Handicap line (58¢) offers a far more lucrative way to bet on him simply staying competitive rather than needing the outright win.
There are dozens of other US Open tennis matches on the board today beyond these four, and the pattern holds across most of them, moneylines on heavy favorites pay little, while spread and set-handicap lines on the same players often pay much better.
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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
US Open Predictions: Final Thoughts
Taylor Fritz should be too much for Darwin Blanch today, but the moneyline price reflects that almost perfectly, leaving the Set Handicap as the more interesting way to trade it.
The bigger opportunity on today's board may be the other three American matches, where none of the players are priced anywhere close to Fritz's 95.1¢, and the payouts reflect that.
These four matches make up today's us open picks today, from the heaviest favorite on the board to its biggest long shot.
That's the shape of today's US Open predictions across the American contingent.
Check the full list of promo codes before placing any of today's positions.
US Open Picks Today FAQs
What is the Polymarket promo code for the US Open?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION, which unlocks a trading bonus for new users who sign up through Action Network's link.
Who is favored in Taylor Fritz vs Darwin Blanch?
Taylor Fritz is a heavy favorite, priced at 95.1¢ on the Polymarket moneyline, implying a 95.1% chance of winning.
What's the best US Open pick today for Fritz vs Blanch?
Our Editor's Pick backs Fritz on the -2.5 Set Handicap at 71¢, which pays out better than laying his moneyline outright.
Which other Americans are playing in round one of the US Open today?
Nishesh Basavareddy, Michael Zheng, and Marcos Giron all have first-round matches today, each priced far closer to a coin flip than Fritz's match.
Are there better value US Open picks today than betting on Fritz?
Yes, all three of the other American matches pay out considerably more than Fritz's match given how much shorter his price is.
How do Polymarket contracts resolve?
Each contract resolves at $1 per share if the specified outcome happens, and $0 per share if it doesn't, based strictly on the stated resolution criteria.
When does the Fritz vs Blanch match take place?
The match is part of the first round on day three of the 2026 US Open, one of several American matches on the schedule that day.
Where can I find more US Open tennis odds and predictions?
Beyond the four matches covered here, Polymarket lists odds for the full US Open tennis draw, with new contracts opening as the tournament progresses.
Where can I find more US Open predictions for Tuesday's matches?
Action Network covers US Open predictions throughout the tournament, including matches beyond the American players featured in this piece.
How can I follow live US Open tennis odds on Polymarket?
Polymarket's live order book updates in real time as new trades come in, and the embedded widget above tracks the Fritz vs Blanch market specifically.
