Wednesday's second round at the US Open sends three of the tournament's biggest names onto the court within a few hours of each other.
Daniil Medvedev opens the day against wildcard Sebastian Gorzny, Ben Shelton follows against big-serving Hubert Hurkacz, and Carlos Alcaraz closes the night session in just his second match back from a four-month wrist injury layoff against Jaime Faria.
Polymarket has active contracts on all three matchups, and these US Open predictions today walk through the moneyline, spread, and total markets tied to each one.
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3-Leg Polymarket Combo for Medvedev, Shelton & Alcaraz (Editor's Pick)
We're stacking all three moneyline favorites from Wednesday's US Open slate into one Combo rather than trading them as three separate positions.
- Daniil Medvedev to beat Sebastian Gorzny (moneyline)
- Ben Shelton to beat Hubert Hurkacz (moneyline)
- Carlos Alcaraz to beat Jaime Faria (moneyline)
The Daniil Medvedev prediction here is simple: he's a former US Open champion facing a wildcard in his first Grand Slam main draw, and that gap shows up as a 95¢ price.
The Carlos Alcaraz prediction leans on his first-round performance. He looked clean and pain-free against Roman Safiullin even with his serve speed still down, and Faria's 72nd-ranked profile doesn't change that Alcaraz is the far superior player on this surface.
The Ben Shelton prediction is the one carrying actual risk in this Combo. Shelton dropped a set to Tallon Griekspoor last round, and Hurkacz's serve and forecourt skill give him a real path to keep this competitive even with his 0-6 career record in US Open second rounds.
That gap in certainty is exactly why almost all of this Combo's leverage comes from the Shelton leg. Medvedev and Alcaraz are priced so heavily as favorites that their individual multiples barely add anything on their own.
Polymarket Combo Payout
Multiply the three prices together (95¢ Medvedev, 69¢ Shelton, 92¢ Alcaraz) and this Combo trades at roughly 60¢ per share, or a combined multiple of about 1.66x.
On a $100 trade, that's $100 divided by $0.60, or about 166.7 shares purchased. Each of those shares is worth $1, but only if Medvedev, Shelton, and Alcaraz all win their matches.
- If all three favorites win: the roughly 16.6 shares pay out around $166.70, for about $66.70 in profit on the $100 stake.
- If any single leg loses, whether it's an upset from Gorzny, Hurkacz, or Faria, the entire $100 stake is lost, since Polymarket Combos settle all-or-nothing.
A 1.66x multiple looks modest for a three-leg Combo, and that's the whole story here: Medvedev and Alcaraz add almost no leverage on their own since both are priced above 90¢, so nearly every bit of the extra payout is really riding on Shelton closing out Hurkacz.
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Daniil Medvedev vs Sebastian Gorzny
Medvedev breezed past Hugo Gaston in the first round and is chasing his eighth career trip to the US Open third round.
Gorzny is a wildcard playing in his first Grand Slam main draw and needed a fifth-set tiebreak just to get past Raphael Collignon.
Daniil Medvedev (95%, Yes 95¢)
Medvedev's price has barely moved off the open, and it's easy to see why against an opponent ranked outside the top 700 who has never faced a player of this caliber.
Sebastian Gorzny (6%, Yes 6¢)
Gorzny's run has already made him a story, but 6¢ reflects just how big a step up in class this is from the Challenger and Futures level he was playing a few months ago.
Spread: Medvedev to Win by Over 8.5 Games
Medvedev is priced at 55¢ to win by more than 8.5 games, a fair reflection of a talent gap this wide over a potential three-set sweep.
Total: Over 28.5 Games
The over is trading at 55¢, down slightly on recent movement, which suggests the market expects Gorzny to push a set or two rather than get bageled outright.
Ben Shelton vs Hubert Hurkacz
Shelton is the No. 8 seed and reigning Canadian Open champion, but he needed four sets to get past Tallon Griekspoor after dropping the opener.
Hurkacz has never escaped the second round in seven prior trips to the US Open, though he's a former top-10 player with plenty of firepower on serve.
Ben Shelton (69%, Yes 69¢)
Shelton is favored behind a home crowd at Arthur Ashe, and his ability to blast his way out of trouble on serve is a big part of why the market still leans his way despite last round's shaky opening set.
Hubert Hurkacz (32%, Yes 32¢)
Hurkacz's price ticked down a point recently, and while his serve keeps him within touching distance of anyone, his 0-6 career record in US Open second rounds is a tough number to ignore.
Spread: Shelton to Win by Over 3.5 Games
Shelton to win by more than 3.5 games is priced right around a coin flip at 51¢, which lines up with a match expected to feature multiple tiebreaks between two elite servers.
Total: Over 39.5 Games
The over sits at 55¢, another signal the market is pricing in a long, serve-heavy contest rather than a quick night for either player.
Set 1 Winner
Shelton is priced at 75¢ to take the opening set against Hurkacz's 65¢, both numbers that have swung hard as the market digests how each player served in their first-round openers.
Exact Match Score
Across the full-match score board, Hurkacz winning 3-0 carries the highest price in the group at 48¢, just ahead of Shelton closing it out 3-2 at 47¢, both up sharply from where this market opened.
Shelton winning in three sets (34¢) or four sets (36¢) both price higher than either Hurkacz combination, which tracks with him being the outright favorite even in a match expected to be close.
Carlos Alcaraz vs Jaime Faria
Alcaraz is back from a four-month wrist injury and cruised past Roman Safiullin in straight sets to open his title defense.
Faria, the No. 72 player in the world, needed five sets to escape Jenson Brooksby and a hostile home crowd in the first round.
Carlos Alcaraz (92%, Yes 92¢)
Alcaraz's price has ticked up a point as the market gains confidence in his wrist after a clean, pain-free first-round performance, even with his serve speed still down from its usual mark.
Jaime Faria (9%, Yes 9¢)
Faria is priced at 9¢ despite his own encouraging run, since a healthy Alcaraz remains one of the sport's most dominant forces even before he's back to full speed.
Only the moneyline is active on this market at the time of writing. Spread and total contracts for Alcaraz vs. Faria hadn't opened yet, and this section will get updated once they do.
Wednesday's US Open card runs well beyond these three matches, with additional second-round contracts open on Polymarket across the rest of the men's and women's draws.
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Disclaimer: Prediction markets provide real-time probability estimates based on traded contracts. These prices reflect market sentiment and do not guarantee future outcomes. Trading event contracts involves risk; ensure you understand the resolution criteria before taking a position.
US Open Predictions Today: Final Thoughts
Wednesday's slate leans heavily toward the favorites on paper, but Shelton vs. Hurkacz is the one match here that genuinely could go either way given how well both players serve.
Medvedev and Alcaraz look like the safer holds, which is exactly why the Combo above is really a bet on Shelton more than anything else, and why these US Open predictions today keep coming back to that one match.
If you want to track how these prices move throughout the day, Action Network's prediction markets hub keeps a running board across every major platform, and the prediction market apps guide can help you find the fastest way to get trading from your phone.
Polymarket Promo Code FAQs
What is the current Polymarket promo code?
The current Polymarket promo code is ACTION. New users who sign up with the code and deposit $10 get a $50 trading bonus.
What are the current odds for Wednesday's US Open matches?
Medvedev is priced at 95¢ over Gorzny, Shelton is priced at 69¢ over Hurkacz, and Alcaraz is priced at 92¢ over Faria, as of this writing.
Who is favored on Wednesday's card?
All three players covered here, Medvedev, Shelton, and Alcaraz, are favored on the moneyline, though Shelton's price reflects a much closer contest than the other two.
What's the most notable prop on the board?
The exact match score market for Shelton vs. Hurkacz stands out, with Hurkacz winning 3-0 and Shelton winning 3-2 both pricing above 47¢, showing just how split the market is on that particular match.
How do Polymarket contracts work?
Each contract trades between 1¢ and 99¢, with the price reflecting the market's implied probability of that outcome. A winning contract settles at $1 per share, while a losing contract settles at $0.
What is the Ben Shelton prediction for his match against Hubert Hurkacz?
The Ben Shelton prediction on the board favors him at 69¢, but Hurkacz's serve and forecourt game make this the closest of Wednesday's three matches covered here.
What is the Daniil Medvedev prediction against Sebastian Gorzny?
The Daniil Medvedev prediction is straightforward at 95¢. A former champion against a wildcard in his first Grand Slam main draw is about as lopsided as this sport gets on paper.
What is the Carlos Alcaraz prediction versus Jaime Faria?
The Carlos Alcaraz prediction sits at 92¢ in his favor. His wrist looked fine in round one, and Faria's ranking outside the top 70 makes him a significant step down in class.
What are the best US Open picks today?
Based on the board, the best US Open picks today are the moneyline favorites in all three matches, with the Shelton leg carrying the most value and the most risk of the group.
Are there more US Open matches available on Polymarket?
Yes. Wednesday's full second-round slate has additional contracts open on Polymarket beyond the three matches covered in this piece.
