Buccaneers vs. Panthers Odds & Betting Predictions - January 7, 2024

@GDAWG5000

Boyd

At Circa

Boyd

One last ride!

Stuckey 3

Tailing @nick_giffen and his luck ranks

#LuckRankings At Stations in NV, also available at Bet365 and BetRivers

The Panthers showed a spark offensively two weeks ago, so they haven't abandoned hope on the season. But all those gains were lost last week, likely allowing us to put faith in the longer-term picture of them. That longer-term picture says we can lay the points with the Bucs in this one. Tampa Bay's offense is far too dependent on late-down magic to be one that's sustainable in tougher spots, and we saw that spring up last week against the Saints. However, even in my model that penalizes the Bucs more for this, they're still favored by 6.3. My other model views things more broadly, and that has them favored by around nine points. Jaycee Horn was unable to go in last week's game, and it allowed CJ Beathard to put up respectable efficiency numbers en route to a 26-0 victory. Even in other games with Horn, teams have been able to move the ball effectively against the Panthers on early downs. The concern here would be that the Bucs lean into their terrible ground game, keeping them from covering a somewhat-big number. It does help, at least, that doing so is less of a blunder against this defense than most. I buy into the model here, and the model doesn't account for the motivation of going to the playoffs with a win, so I'm fine laying the 5.5 with the Bucs in this spot.