NFL Draft Props & Betting Picks: 5 First Round Predictions For Thursday

NFL Draft Props & Betting Picks: 5 First Round Predictions For Thursday article feature image
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Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: DeVonta Smith, Jaylen Waddle

In a special collaboration with The Action Network, you’ll find four NFL draft props that Scott Smith is betting below.

Smith was the most accurate mock drafter of 2018 at Mock Draft Database, which grades the accuracy of mock drafts industry-wide, including longtime draft analysts like ESPN’s Mel Kiper. Smith’s ability to consistently finish in the top-five of that mock draft accuracy contest for three straight years is what sets his mocks apart from others.

NFL Draft Prop Bets

Picks
Eric Stokes Under 45.5 (-225)
WR Draft Order: Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith (-110)
Jaelan Phillips Drafted Before Kwity Paye (+100)
Penei Sewell to Carolina (+450) or Detroit (+550)
All odds are as of Wednesday, April 28.

More Expert NFL Draft Props: Matthew Freedman | Sean Koerner | Chris Raybon | Mike Calabrese


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NFL Draft Odds & Props

Eric Stokes Under 45.5 (-225) at BetMGM

As we get closer to the draft, players often move up boards — and one of those players is Eric Stokes.

With good size, an SEC pedigree and a blazing 4.25 40 at his pro day, Stokes is a player who is trending toward being drafted in Round 1. Under 45.5 has a lot of meat left on the bone and seems like a lock to cash in.

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WR Draft Order: Ja’Marr Chase, Jaylen Waddle, DeVonta Smith (-110) at Fox Bet

Fox Bet is allowing bettors to predict the order of WRs drafted here.

Ja’Marr Chase is widely considered to be the best WR in the draft and is likely to land in Cincinnati with the No. 5 pick, so this bet comes down to who will be selected first between former teammates Jaylen Waddle and DeVonta Smith.

The majority of scouts polled favor Waddle over Smith: Benjamin Robinson of Grinding the Mocks has tracked more than 1,400 mocks and his expected draft position charts clearly support this trend. Ultimately, Waddle’s speed should win out over Smith’s production and slender size.

Grinding the Mocks Expected Draft Position chart

Jaelan Phillips Drafted Before Kwity Paye (+100) at Fox Bet

Another bet offering solid value is for Jaelan Phillips to be the first defensive lineman drafted (-125). However, better odds and less risk exist in betting Phillips to be drafted before Kwity Paye.

Bob McGinn of the Athletic polled 18 NFL executives, and 13 of them ranked Phillips as the top edge rusher in this draft compared to only one vote for Paye. The main knock against Phillips is his injury history that includes concussions, but he clearly has more production upside at the next level in comparison to Paye.

The Giants at 11th overall and the Vikings at 14th could be potential fits for Phillips.

Penei Sewell to Carolina (+450) and to Detroit (+550) at Fox Bet

For much of draft season, Sewell has been projected fifth overall to the Bengals. Over the last few weeks, though, the tide has turned to favor Ja’Marr Chase. And while Miami is in play at sixth overall, my expectation is for the Dolphins to pick a playmaker and address tackle later in the round.

Detroit (seventh) and Carolina (eighth) offer prime positions for teams seeking a quarterback to move up and select either Justin Fields or Trey Lance. And at Fox Bet, bookmakers are offering good enough odds to bet a unit on each scenario, allowing you to profit nicely if one hits.

If you were to pick only one, I feel better about Sewell to Carolina at this point as Detroit is a dark horse to possibly select Fields.

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