For the second NFL season in a row, a team will be playing in a Super Bowl at its home stadium. Just a year after the Tampa Bay Buccaneers became the first team in NFL history to win a Lombardi Trophy at home, the Los Angeles Rams will take on the Cincinnati Bengals at SoFi Stadium.
SoFi Stadium — home to both the Rams and Los Angeles Chargers — was supposed to amount to a neutral site for Super Bowl LVI, but Sean McVay's squad had other plans. Now the Bengals will travel to L.A. for their first Super Bowl appearance since the 1988 NFL season while the Rams will be nice and comfy at home.
But if the NFC Championship Game showed us one thing, it's that the Rams' home field might not be as Ram-tastic as you would think. It was a sea of red as the San Francisco 49ers and their fans put up a valiant effort on Championship Sunday.
Though the Rams persevered, there's still something to be said for whether or not they really have much home-field advantage in L.A. regardless of the opponent.
But home should we approach the Rams' home-field advantage (HFA) in the 2022 Super Bowl from a betting perspective? All six of the experts whose models power our NFL PRO Projections explain how many points they're each assigning to the Rams for HFA in their projected odds for this matchup below.
Impact of Rams' Home-Field Advantage on Super Bowl
| Analyst | Points for Rams' HFA |
|---|---|
| Raheem Palmer Simon Hunter Travis Reed | 0 |
| Chris Raybon | 0.2 |
| Sean Koerner | 0.5 |
| Stuckey | 0.5 |
Raheem Palmer: 0 Points
I'm not factoring in any home-field advantage for the Rams in the Super Bowl.
The Rams had to use a silent count in their own stadium against the 49ers in the NFC Championship Game. And it speaks volumes that the team initially had an eventually-rescinded policy to restrict ticket sales to fans in the Los Angeles area to optimize the stadium for Rams fans.
The Super Bowl features a more corporate crowd than any other NFL game, so even if the Rams had a huge fanbase in Los Angeles, we wouldn't see a huge impact. In addition, the Rams are just 5-3 straight up and 3-5 against the spread (ATS) since moving to SoFi Stadium, including the NFC title game.
Simon Hunter: 0 Points
This is a neutral field with insanely-high ticket prices for the Super Bowl, not to mention most Rams fans still live in Missouri and Bengals fans are more than ready to make the trip. I’m expecting more of a 50/50 split in the crowd and could see Bengals fans having the edge on attendance.
I dropped the Rams from a half-point HFA after seeing the 49ers’ sea of red at SoFi for the NFC Championship Game. I already viewed Los Angeles as a neutral field heading into the playoff, but hadn’t fully moved HFA to zero until now.
My model makes the Rams a three-point favorite even without an advantage at home — they are the all-around better team with the biggest advantage coming from their unstoppable defensive line.
Travis Reed: 0 Points
The Rams had a tough time during the regular season with opposing fans and I don’t foresee them getting an influx of bandwagoners to pay up for the game at SoFi Stadium. There will be some Rams and Bengals fans of course, but there are going to be tons of fans, celebrities and corporate private parties with no allegiance to either team that are just there for the event.
I expect the game to be a truly neutral environment.
Chris Raybon: 0.2 Points
The Rams barely have had any home-field advantage during the regular season — let alone in a massive game like the Super Bowl. There isn’t much travel advantage here and HFA has been dwindling across the league. I still give the Rams a slight edge, but it’s minimal.
Sean Koerner: 0.5 Points
I’m giving the Rams around a 0.5 boost for HFA in the Super Bowl. With home-field advantage practically disappearing from the NFL altogether, most sharp handicappers use 0.5-1.5 for HFA. The Rams and Chargers typically see an even number of home and away fans at games, so I give them a 0.5-point boost since I think there is a bit of an edge in not having to travel and getting to play in the comfort of their home stadium.
With the Super Bowl, I expect most of the crowd to be pretty corporate and can’t imagine the Rams having much of a “crowd noise” edge. However, getting to experience Super Bowl week from the comfort of home has to be an edge. Meanwhile, the Bengals will go through the normal process of an away team and all of the extra shenanigans surrounding the Super Bowl.
Similar to my main takeaway for the NFC Championship Game, HFA isn’t factoring into my final bet either way. I’m projecting the Rams -2.5 based on my power ratings but making them -3 (with 0.5 of HFA). Crossing through a key number of three (from 2.5 to 3.5) is a significant line move. Therefore, you can say I have way more respect for the most critical number in terms of the NFL spread (three points) than trying to come up with a more subjective estimate of HFA for the Rams this week. The matchup will ultimately come down to on-field performance, game plan, etc. — not by any sort of HFA.
Stuckey: 0.5 Points
I'm not sure how much home-field advantage will matter considering the crowd, like my colleagues have said, should be corporate and filled with celebrities.
Plus weather, travel and familiarity between teams is usually worth more than HFA.
