2024 NFL Draft Odds: Caleb Williams Opens As Colossal, Valueless Favorite
Picture by Getty Images. Pictured: Caleb Williams (USC)
2024 NFL Draft Odds
Odds to go No. 1 overall, according to DraftKings.
While the first round of the 2023 NFL Draft just ended, sometimes sportsbooks can’t stop themselves. They know that you all have interest in these sorts of markets, too, so putting out speculative lines on a speculative market doesn’t hurt them in the short-term.
On the sportsbook’s side, it’s free capital for a year, and even the sharpest bettors in the world can’t reap much value in a rigid market scheduled a year from now.
It also helps that DraftKings is the only book with these odds up as of Friday morning, allowing them to dominate market share for the time being.
And on the consumer’s side, there may be longshots worth plucking — even if it’s relatively low EV.
As of now, USC quarterback Caleb Williams is the presumptive favorite to go No. 1 overall at -550.
Those odds are, frankly, unfathomable. The odds imply a probability of 85% that Williams will end up going first.
Can you reasonably have that much confidence on any predictive market, let alone a draft that still has a year left to run? And with other emerging quarterback talents in the offing that have the luxury of adding another year of film?
Elementally and simply, Williams’ injury concern alone should be enough to dissuade anyone from making that selection.
Williams may very well be the No. 1 overall pick. But you’d need more than 85% certainty that he’s the No. 1 overall selection next year for this bet to have any semblance of expected value.
Otherwise, you’re giving books a year-long, interest-free loan for an 18% return that is far, far from guaranteed.
Next up is UNC QB Drake Maye, who impressed last season en route to a 10th place finish in the Heisman Trophy voting. His odds of +600 imply a probability of over 14% that he’ll go No. 1.
And while there’s currently a massive evaluation gulf below Williams and Maye, any one of the quarterbacks currently in the doldrums could see their draft stock boom in the coming months.
Arkansas QB KJ Jefferson, Texas QB Quinn Ewers, Washington QB Michael Penix Jr., Colorado QB Shedeur Sanders, LSU QB Jayden Daniels and South Carolina QB Spencer Rattler are all in the mix here.
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