NFL Awards Week continues at Action Network, and today I'm digging into Defensive Rookie of the Year (DROY).
Defensive awards aren't the sexiest, but they're often profitable to bet on because they're typically more predictable than others.
You may not want to pay attention to defense — but voters don't either, which means the field is often much narrower than other markets.
We hit this award just last year with a long-shot winner in this column, nailing Carson Schwesinger at +3500!
Let's build a DROY historical winner profile and go through the names at the top.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds, Predictions
| Group | Category |
|---|---|
| 1 | Cross Off These LBs & DBs |
| 2 | Passing on These Edge Rushers |
| 3 | Long Shot Sleepers to Watch (But Not Bet) |
| 4 | The Favorite We're Fading |
| 5 | Anderson's DROY Picks |
Who Wins Defensive Rookie of the Year?
1. Unlike many other awards, favorites tend to win.
Three of the last six DROY winners started the season at +700 or shorter in the market. They were among the betting favorites from the very start.
Jared Verse just missed in 2024 at +1100, but that also means 10 of the last 14 DROYs (71%) started the season at +1100 or shorter.
Depending on your book, that immediately narrows the field to six players: Rueben Bain Jr., David Bailey, Caleb Downs, Sonny Styles, Arvell Reese, and Mansoor Delane. Interestingly, though, only two of those names are pass rushers.
2. DROY tends to be an award for pass rushers.
Six of the last 10 DROYs racked up at least seven sacks. It's hard to find playing time as a rookie and even tougher to put up numbers to make a noticeable impact, so it's sometimes easier to flash a few times.
Only three corners have won the award this century — though it's notable that all three have come since 2015.
Last year’s winner, Carson Schwesinger, was a serious outlier for many of these rules, including this one.
This used to be a linebacker award with their propensity to rack up tackles, but Shaq Leonard is the only other off-ball LB to win DROY in the past decade.
No safety has won since 1990.
3. Winning doesn't matter much — but an improving defense seems to help.
Unlike some awards, voters don't expect rookie defenders to come in and work miracles.
Winning — and even team defensive metrics — do not seem particularly important for DROY winners. Nine of the last 16 winners, over half, played for teams that finished .500 or worse — though six of the last nine won at least 10, so perhaps that's changing.
It does seem to help if voters see a huge leap in defensive performance as a team.
Eight of the last nine winners joined a team that ranked bottom quarter of the league in PPG allowed and helped turn things around to finish top half of the league.
This year, that list of "eligible" teams at the bottom includes the Cowboys, Jets, Bengals, Cardinals, Titans, Commanders, Giants, and Raiders.
4. The most predictive factor is simply draft position.
Every single DROY this century was drafted within the top 40 picks.
Twenty-two of the 26 were taken in the first round, and 20 of the 26 went top 15. That's a 77% chance our DROY is one of 15 names — and that's more like seven or eight since half the guys drafted play offense!
Heck, seven winners this century (27%) were just the first defender off the board.
It makes sense, and it's really just a bit of selection bias. The guys taken at the top of the draft are the best prospects! They're the most ready to play and most likely to step into a bad situation with an easier and certain path to playing time.
Notably, here again Schwesinger was an exception to the rule as the first pick of the second round – though including fellow No. 33 pick DeMeco Ryans, that also means that 24-of-26 DROYs this century were selected in the first 33 picks (92%).
Draft position remains king.
So, what are we looking for in a DROY?
We want a pass rusher who was a top-40 draft pick, likely top 15, and flashy plays matter much more than winning. And actually, it's probably just one of the favorites.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Odds
| Player | Price |
|---|---|
| David Bailey | 25% |
| Rueben Bain Jr. | 21% |
| Arvell Reese | 17% |
| Caleb Downs | 13% |
| Sonny Styles | 11% |
| Jacob Rodriguez | 8% |
| Akheem Mesidor | 6% |
| Brandon Cisse | 5% |
| Mansoor Delane | 5% |
| Cashius Howell | 3% |
This is the top-10 via Kalshi as of 4:00 p.m. ET on Thursday, Sept. 3.
Cross Off These Linebackers & Defensive Backs
Arvell Reese, Giants
Reese is a tempting name at +850 on DraftKings. He was a top-five pick, so he has the pedigree we want. He is going to play next to Tremaine Edmunds as New York attempts to upgrade its run defense.
Last season, new Giants defensive coordinator Dennard Wilson got 164 combined tackles out of rookie Cedric Gray at the exact same weak-side linebacker spot Reese will fill.
But guess what? You didn't exactly see Gray getting any Defensive Rookie of the Year votes.
Reese might have been the most gifted defender in the draft, and he did record 6.5 sacks last year. But it will be hard to find those sack numbers in New York with all the pass rushers already around him.
He also comes in with zero career interceptions or forced fumbles. We need splash plays to win this award, and I don't want to invest in linebackers anyway.
This is a tough pass.
Sonny Styles, Commanders
This one is an easier pass at +800 on Caesars. Styles is replacing Bobby Wagner, so there are 162 combined tackles out there for the taking.
But again, we do not want a linebacker.
The Washington defense looks like it will be bad again, which gives Styles a low ceiling for an award helped by team success.
Jacob Rodriguez, Dolphins
CJ Allen, Colts
Josiah Trotter, Buccaneers
If you really want a linebacker in the Carson Schwesinger mold from last year, Rodriguez (+1500, DraftKings) makes some sense at middle linebacker.
Jeff Hafley is great with linebackers. But Rodriguez joins an awful defense and was not a first-round pick. These odds are just too short.
Allen is +3500 at FanDuel and Trotter is 100-1 at DraftKings. I am passing on all these Day 2 linebackers.
The numbers are too short and I do not want to bet on outliers here with better options available.
Caleb Downs, Cowboys
This is a much tougher pass at +750 on BetRivers. Downs was the No. 11 overall pick and clearly has the required pedigree.
I love his fit with new defensive coordinator Christian Parker. The Dallas defense was so bad last year that Downs could easily get a big media boost if he helps turn them around.
The issue is he is more of a solid, steady, button-up-the-back-end guy than a splashy playmaker. Downs only had 1.5 sacks in his college career and just two interceptions each season.
We basically never give safeties a major award, so I can't back one here at such a short price.
Mansoor Delane, Chiefs
This one is an easier pass.
Delane went No. 6 overall and could be an absolute stud — but eight interceptions in four years does not scream splash guy.
We do see occasional corners win this, but I cannot invest at +1100.
Passing on These Edge Rushers
Akheem Mesidor, Chargers
We do want an edge rusher here if possible, but there a few high picks I'll pass on.
Mesidor is +1500 at BetMGM, but he is an older prospect at 25 years old. He played six college seasons and only hit five or more sacks one time.
On top of that, he is stuck behind Tuli Tuipulotu and Khalil Mack on a Chargers defense that is likely moving in the wrong direction.
Malachi Lawrence, Cowboys
Lawrence went No. 23 overall right after Mesidor. Coming from UCF, he will likely be buried on the depth chart behind Rashan Gary, Donovan Ezeiruaku, and newly-acquired Von Miller.
There are just too many names for him to stand out, including his own rookie teammate Caleb Downs.
I will pass at +2700.
Keldric Faulk, Titans
Faulk is +4000 at BetMGM, but he only had 10 sacks in three years at Auburn, including just two last year.
Robert Saleh helps the defense, but Jermaine Johnson is likely the top sack guy there, and he usually tops out around five to seven anyway.
Faulk also dealt with a shoulder injury in camp. Keep an eye on him, but this is a pass for now.
Long-Shot Sleepers to Watch (But Not Bet)
Cashius Howell, Bengals
Howell (+5000, FanDuel) was the No. 41 pick and racked up 27 sacks in college.
There is a gaping hole in Cincinnati following the departure of Trey Hendrickson, and this defense should take a step forward.
Zion Young, Ravens
The Ravens snagged Young at No. 45. This is the team that actually landed Trey Hendrickson, but they still need pass rush opposite of him.
Jesse Minter's defense has produced multiple guys with 5.5+ sacks over the last two years. Young is 100-1 at FanDuel.
The Favorite We're Fading
Rueben Bain Jr., Buccaneers
Bain is the favorite right now at +475 on Caesars and BetRivers, but he shouldn't be.
The No. 15 overall pick fits our criteria perfectly — he posted 9.5 sacks last year after recording 11 in each of the previous two seasons for Miami, hitting home about once every two games.
Teams simply cannot run on the Bucs, which means plenty of chances to pin his ears back and rush the passer. He also gets to play opposite of Yaya Diaby, so Bain should see plenty of one-on-one matchups.
The problem is that Todd Bowles is aggressive but tends to spread the sacks out across his defense. If you look at the leading edge rushers in Tampa Bay recently, Diaby had seven last year, Calijah Kancey had 7.5 in 2024, Diaby had 7.5 in 2023, and Vita Vea had 6.5 in 2022.
Bain also missed some training camp with an AC sprain. That is not ideal early on.
He definitely has the profile of a guy who can win, but he is priced a bit too short as the favorite.
NFL Defensive Rookie of the Year Pick
David Bailey, Jets (+550, DraftKings)
When it comes to these defensive awards, sometimes you just want to take the top guy on the board. Bailey went No. 2 overall and was the first defender taken in the draft. Remember, 27% of the DROYs this century were just the first defender in the draft!
The Jets fielded one of the worst defenses in the league last year, and I think they can jump to league average under Aaron Glenn. That fits the profile of a rookie joining a bad unit and elevating it.
Bailey led the nation with 14.5 sacks at Texas Tech last year. The Jets managed to get eight sacks out of Will McDonald last season, and Glenn was just in Detroit helping Aidan Hutchinson put up 9.5 and 11.5 sacks en route to DROY contention.
Bailey is exactly the pass rusher this team has needed. Our seven-sack target looks easily within range.
You get top draft pick pedigree on a defense that should noticeably improve, and Bailey already recorded a preseason sack against Pittsburgh.
David Bailey should be the outright favorite, and he is my pick at +550.
Anderson's Defensive Rookie of the Year Pick
- David Bailey, Jets (+550, DraftKings)
