3 Most Valuable NFL Player Prop Bets for Lions vs. Chiefs, Including Patrick Mahomes, Jahmyr Gibbs

The Action Network's proprietary betting algorithms have churned out the three most valuable player prop picks for Lions vs. Chiefs tonight.

The algorithms are developed by our predictive analytics team, which make empirical predictions on every game with value and have created popular benchmark statistics like the Luck Rankings.

1. Noah Gray over 10.5 receiving yards (-114)
2. Jahmyr Gibbs over 7.5 rushing attempts (-125)
3. Patrick Mahomes under 4.5 rushing attempts (-145)

The first line has a market-best line at BetRivers. Our predictive analytics team projects Gray at 25.85 receiving yards — especially with Travis Kelce's shaky projections. Even if Kelce suits up on Thursday, he'll mostly be used as a decoy — he won't be 100%. The algorithms factor in all these measures in real-time.

The second line is located at BetMGM. Gibbs is projected to rush for 9.5 times against the Chiefs, with the number expected to increase to roughly 10 should Kelce be deemed out. That's on account of a corresponding increase in the Lions' time of possession.

And the third line is courtesy of PointsBet, which is now owned by Fanatics. Mahomes is expected to run just 3.4 times — especially in the season's first game — although expect the spindly quarterback to peel out for a few scrambles. Our algorithms expect him to throw the ball during these rollouts far, far more often than he'll tuck it and run.