The Indianapolis Colts (0-1) and Kansas City Chiefs (1-0) will meet in the Week 2 edition of NFL Sunday Night Football. Kickoff is set for 8:20 p.m. ET at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo. The game will broadcast live on NBC and Peacock.
The Chiefs are 6.5-point favorites over the Colts on the spread (Chiefs -6.5), with the over/under set at 46.5 total points. Kansas City is a -295 moneyline favorite to win outright, while Indianapolis is listed as a +240 underdog to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Colts vs Chiefs predictions in my Sunday Night Football preview.
Colts vs Chiefs Prediction
- Colts vs Chiefs pick: Over 46.5 Points (-110)
My Colts vs. Chiefs best bet is over 46.5 points, with the best price currently available at FanDuel. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NFL odds page.
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Colts vs Chiefs Odds
| Colts Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+6.5 -115 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | +240 |
| Chiefs Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-6.5 -105 | 46.5 -110o / -110u | -295 |
Colts vs Chiefs Sunday Night Football Preview
In Patrick Mahomes’ last 40 home games, the under has cashed at a 75% rate, which is why oddsmakers hanging this total (46.5) above the key numbers of 44 and 45 definitely warrants some attention.
This trend of unders at Arrowhead Stadium has caught on to the point that even the casual bettor is reciting it and playing it heading into Sunday Night Football. Depending on the data you are consuming, somewhere between 70% and 80% of all wagers thus far are on the under.
It is time to pivot.
No defense in the NFL allowed a higher percentage of plays to go for 10+ yards than the Colts in Week 1. The rushing attack of the Chiefs made a major statement against the Broncos on Monday night, as it is evident Kenneth Walker has shifted the ability of Kansas City to create explosive plays.
Mahomes had a slow start in his return from injury, but he settled in and became more comfortable in the second half. He was honest in his comments after the game and admitted he needed to be more patient in the pocket.
I expect Mahomes to trust his O-line more moving forward and work through his progressions. In addition to that, the Colts defense must commit extra defenders to stop the run. It is a concept completely foreign to Mahomes, as he has never enjoyed this type of complement in his entire career.
Indianapolis surrendered six explosive runs of 10 yards or more in Week 1. The Colts stuffed the Ravens' running game at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 5.4% of rushing attempts — only two defenses fared worse in Week 1.
Baltimore ball carriers averaged 4.3 yards before contact per attempt, the most in football. The Colts cannot afford to consistently give Walker running lanes or they will fail to ever put Mahomes in third-and-long situations.
This, of course, will create opportunities for the Kansas City passing game.
Chiefs head coach Andy Reid devised a game plan specifically to negate the Broncos’ pass rush in Week 1 and to protect his undrafted rookie free agent left tackle (Kahlil Benson).
Benson proved reliable, allowing just one pressure on 32 pass-blocking snaps. Reid and offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy will begin to open up the playbook as they gain more trust in the pass protection. Last week went a long way in building that trust, and there is reason to believe we will start to see signs of the Chiefs’ high-flying passing attack of old.
Keep in mind, from 2018-2022, under Bieniemy, Kansas City averaged 30.1 points per game across 81 regular-season games. This is a team that never averaged fewer than 28 points per game in any of those five seasons.
It is no surprise, even with a limited game plan, the Chiefs were able to put 31 points on the board against a tough opponent to open the season. Maybe most importantly, in the previous Bieniemy tenure over those five seasons, the Chiefs were No. 1 in third-down conversion rate. There should be little resistance for the Chiefs in their quest to sustain drives and put up points tonight.
Jonathan Taylor and the ground game were a bright spot for the Colts offense in Week 1.
Taylor averaged 5.1 yards per attempt with a healthy 57% success rate. He moved the chains on seven different occasions by himself on the ground.
Taylor should once again be the key cog that assists Daniel Jones in not having to consistently face the improved pass rush Kansas City displayed against Bo Nix.
The Chiefs' rush defense was relatively untested versus Denver, but it was hardly impressive. The Chiefs ranked 29th in yards before contact per attempt, and they stuffed runs at or behind the line of scrimmage on just 6.7% of the running back carries against them.
Indy won’t make the same mistake the Broncos did by abandoning the run too early in this game.
Colts vs Chiefs Prediction, Betting Analysis
In the 14 games Daniel Jones has started for the Colts, the over has cashed at a 64.3% rate at 9-5. Even road and neutral-site games with him under center have averaged 48.8 points per game.
The outlook for the Kansas City offense has made the pendulum swing too far. Oddsmakers are already telling us with this posted total hovering around 46.5 that there will be points in this game, yet bettors are taking the bait as tickets are piling in on the under.
Both teams will move the ball in an efficient manner that presents an abundance of scoring opportunities. As long as Patrick Mahomes and Jones can finish drives at a normal level, the value lies in playing the over up to the primary key number of 47.
Pick: Over 46.5 Points (-110); bet to 47
